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Canada


Saint-Jean (federal)


MP: Christine Normandin (BQ)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

BQ safe hold
Saint-Jean 46% ± 8%▼ 19% ± 5% 19% ± 5% 10% ± 4% 6% ± 4%▲ BQ 2021 46.01% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Saint-Jean >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Jean

LPC 19% ± 5% CPC 19% ± 5% NDP 10% ± 4% GPC 6% ± 4% BQ 46% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Jean 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Saint-Jean

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Saint-Jean



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 24.8% 44.8% 46.01% 46% ± 8% LPC 33.2% 30.6% 28.12% 19% ± 5% CPC 10.8% 10.7% 12.74% 19% ± 5% NDP 29.1% 7.7% 7.28% 10% ± 4% GPC 2.1% 5.1% 2.13% 6% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0% ± 0%