338Canada.com - Projections per district population density


Federal electoral districts ranked by population density


(Data comes from the 2016 Canadian census.)

Last projection update: January 17, 2021

Rank Electoral District Province Population density 2019 winner Current projection
#1 35108 Toronto Centre 17,775 / km² LPC likely
#2 24055 Papineau 11,176 / km² LPC safe
#3 24039 Laurier–Sainte-Marie 10,753 / km² LPC likely
#4 59034 Vancouver Centre 10,462 / km² LPC safe
#5 24064 Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie 10,373 / km² NDP safe
#6 35101 Spadina–Fort York 9,263 / km² LPC safe
#7 35018 Davenport 8,980 / km² Toss up
#8 24054 Outremont 8,543 / km² LPC safe
#9 35090 Toronto–St. Paul's 8,237 / km² LPC safe
#10 35110 University–Rosedale 7,670 / km² LPC safe
#11 24015 Bourassa 7,451 / km² LPC safe
#12 35081 Parkdale–High Park 7,362 / km² LPC likely
#13 59038 Vancouver Kingsway 6,854 / km² NDP safe
#14 35007 Beaches–East York 6,579 / km² LPC safe
#15 24053 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount 6,545 / km² LPC safe
#16 35115 Willowdale 6,009 / km² LPC likely
#17 24037 LaSalle–Émard–Verdun 5,667 / km² LPC safe
#18 24069 Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel 5,593 / km² LPC safe
#19 24028 Hochelaga 5,448 / km² LPC leaning
#20 35109 Toronto–Danforth 5,411 / km² LPC leaning
#21 35058 Mississauga Centre 5,409 / km² LPC safe
#22 24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville 5,407 / km² LPC safe
#23 59035 Vancouver East 5,375 / km² NDP safe
#24 24077 Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs 5,151 / km² LPC safe
#25 35024 Eglinton–Lawrence 5,046 / km² LPC safe
#26 59040 Vancouver South 4,972 / km² LPC safe
#27 35093 Scarborough–Agincourt 4,939 / km² LPC safe
#28 35120 York South–Weston 4,703 / km² LPC safe
#29 59036 Vancouver Granville 4,621 / km² Toss up
#30 24052 Mount Royal 4,584 / km² LPC safe
#31 35020 Don Valley North 4,521 / km² LPC safe
#32 59019 New Westminster–Burnaby 4,386 / km² NDP safe
#33 35019 Don Valley East 4,156 / km² LPC safe
#34 35094 Scarborough Centre 3,994 / km² LPC safe
#35 35098 Scarborough Southwest 3,944 / km² LPC safe
#36 35095 Scarborough–Guildwood 3,944 / km² LPC safe
#37 59033 Surrey–Newton 3,815 / km² LPC safe
#38 35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville 3,747 / km² LPC safe
#39 35075 Ottawa Centre 3,667 / km² LPC likely
#40 35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills 3,631 / km² LPC safe
#41 35010 Brampton North 3,569 / km² LPC safe
#42 35121 Humber River–Black Creek 3,535 / km² LPC safe
#43 35021 Don Valley West 3,392 / km² LPC safe
#44 35035 Hamilton Centre 3,313 / km² NDP safe
#45 24078 Vimy 3,280 / km² LPC safe
#46 35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore 3,264 / km² LPC safe
#47 35096 Scarborough North 3,249 / km² LPC safe
#48 35027 Etobicoke Centre 3,181 / km² LPC safe
#49 35037 Hamilton Mountain 3,165 / km² NDP likely
#50 46011 Winnipeg Centre 3,021 / km² NDP leaning
#51 59032 Surrey Centre 2,979 / km² LPC likely
#52 35118 York Centre 2,964 / km² LPC likely
#53 59041 Victoria 2,908 / km² NDP likely
#54 24008 Beauport–Limoilou 2,872 / km² Toss up
#55 35078 Ottawa–Vanier 2,853 / km² LPC safe
#56 24041 Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne 2,847 / km² LPC leaning
#57 24059 Québec 2,811 / km² LPC leaning
#58 35087 Richmond Hill 2,760 / km² LPC leaning
#59 24029 Honoré-Mercier 2,732 / km² LPC safe
#60 59039 Vancouver Quadra 2,618 / km² LPC safe
#61 35011 Brampton South 2,593 / km² LPC safe
#62 46012 Winnipeg North 2,568 / km² LPC safe
#63 24033 La Pointe-de-l'Île 2,559 / km² BQ likely
#64 35063 Mississauga–Streetsville 2,548 / km² LPC safe
#65 35045 Kitchener Centre 2,538 / km² LPC likely
#66 35029 Etobicoke North 2,471 / km² LPC safe
#67 48015 Edmonton Griesbach 2,443 / km² CPC leaning
#68 59003 Burnaby South 2,430 / km² NDP likely
#69 48004 Calgary Centre 2,422 / km² CPC likely
#70 48014 Edmonton Centre 2,422 / km² CPC leaning
#71 35055 Markham–Thornhill 2,365 / km² LPC safe
#72 35008 Brampton Centre 2,340 / km² LPC safe
#73 24040 Laval–Les Îles 2,330 / km² LPC safe
#74 48017 Edmonton Mill Woods 2,306 / km² CPC leaning
#75 24068 Saint-Laurent 2,301 / km² LPC safe
#76 59025 Richmond Centre 2,276 / km² CPC leaning
#77 24024 Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle 2,271 / km² LPC safe
#78 35012 Brampton West 2,244 / km² LPC safe
#79 48005 Calgary Confederation 2,244 / km² CPC leaning
#80 35052 London North Centre 2,137 / km² LPC likely
#81 24056 Pierrefonds–Dollard 2,126 / km² LPC safe
#82 48006 Calgary Forest Lawn 2,109 / km² CPC likely
#83 35074 Oshawa 2,093 / km² Toss up
#84 46014 Winnipeg South Centre 2,067 / km² LPC safe
#85 24017 Brossard–Saint-Lambert 2,037 / km² LPC safe
#86 35089 St. Catharines 2,030 / km² LPC likely
#87 48009 Calgary Nose Hill 1,997 / km² CPC safe
#88 35065 Newmarket–Aurora 1,978 / km² LPC likely
#89 59007 Cloverdale–Langley City 1,978 / km² LPC likely
#90 24043 Longueuil–Saint-Hubert 1,968 / km² Toss up
#91 48018 Edmonton Riverbend 1,965 / km² CPC leaning
#92 35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore 1,961 / km² LPC likely
#93 24065 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 1,928 / km² LPC likely
#94 35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park 1,918 / km² LPC safe
#95 46005 Elmwood–Transcona 1,869 / km² NDP safe
#96 48012 Calgary Signal Hill 1,842 / km² CPC safe
#97 35104 Thornhill 1,792 / km² CPC likely
#98 35001 Ajax 1,786 / km² LPC safe
#99 35079 Ottawa West–Nepean 1,715 / km² LPC safe
#100 24030 Hull–Aylmer 1,697 / km² LPC safe
#101 59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells 1,680 / km² LPC safe
#102 48007 Calgary Heritage 1,675 / km² CPC safe
#103 35077 Ottawa South 1,661 / km² LPC safe
#104 35053 London West 1,635 / km² LPC safe
#105 35015 Burlington 1,625 / km² LPC safe
#106 35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek 1,600 / km² LPC leaning
#107 47007 Regina–Lewvan 1,594 / km² CPC leaning
#108 35117 Windsor West 1,581 / km² NDP leaning
#109 35072 Oakville 1,545 / km² LPC likely
#110 35112 Waterloo 1,517 / km² LPC safe
#111 35032 Guelph 1,511 / km² LPC safe
#112 35073 Oakville North–Burlington 1,481 / km² LPC likely
#113 35056 Markham–Unionville 1,462 / km² Toss up
#114 48008 Calgary Midnapore 1,455 / km² CPC safe
#115 48010 Calgary Rocky Ridge 1,446 / km² CPC safe
#116 35009 Brampton East 1,437 / km² LPC likely
#117 46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital 1,416 / km² LPC safe
#118 24036 Lac-Saint-Louis 1,385 / km² LPC safe
#119 24013 Thérèse-De Blainville 1,359 / km² Toss up
#120 47009 Regina–Wascana 1,358 / km² Toss up
#121 35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge 1,318 / km² LPC safe
#122 48019 Edmonton Strathcona 1,296 / km² NDP likely
#123 35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill 1,218 / km² LPC leaning
#124 35062 Mississauga–Malton 1,216 / km² LPC safe
#125 47011 Saskatoon–University 1,200 / km² Toss up
#126 48020 Edmonton West 1,164 / km² CPC likely
#127 59023 Port Moody–Coquitlam 1,164 / km² Toss up
#128 59031 Steveston–Richmond East 1,161 / km² Toss up
#129 48031 St. Albert–Edmonton 1,148 / km² CPC likely
#130 35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas 1,126 / km² LPC safe
#131 24073 Sherbrooke 1,118 / km² LPC leaning
#132 48013 Calgary Skyview 1,107 / km² CPC leaning
#133 24044 Louis-Hébert 1,090 / km² LPC likely
#134 35051 London–Fanshawe 1,038 / km² NDP safe
#135 12004 Dartmouth–Cole Harbour 1,026 / km² LPC likely
#136 35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler 1,010 / km² LPC likely
#137 46013 Winnipeg South 976 / km² LPC safe
#138 24019 Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles 962 / km² CPC likely
#139 47012 Saskatoon West 916 / km² Toss up
#140 24027 Gatineau 903 / km² LPC safe
#141 59002 Burnaby North–Seymour 894 / km² LPC leaning
#142 24004 Alfred-Pellan 889 / km² LPC safe
#143 24062 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 888 / km² Toss up
#144 24076 Trois-Rivières 881 / km² Toss up
#145 35114 Whitby 875 / km² LPC likely
#146 24045 Louis-Saint-Laurent 849 / km² CPC safe
#147 48011 Calgary Shepard 816 / km² CPC safe
#148 11002 Charlottetown 814 / km² LPC safe
#149 48016 Edmonton Manning 767 / km² CPC likely
#150 24075 Terrebonne 724 / km² BQ likely
#151 59030 South Surrey–White Rock 720 / km² Toss up
#152 35116 Windsor–Tecumseh 719 / km² Toss up
#153 35064 Nepean 693 / km² LPC safe
#154 24049 Montarville 649 / km² Toss up
#155 35076 Orléans 626 / km² LPC safe
#156 13007 Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe 590 / km² LPC safe
#157 24060 Repentigny 584 / km² BQ safe
#158 59001 Abbotsford 581 / km² CPC safe
#159 59011 Delta 550 / km² LPC safe
#160 46006 Kildonan–St. Paul 493 / km² Toss up
#161 35054 Markham–Stouffville 446 / km² LPC leaning
#162 12005 Halifax 439 / km² LPC likely
#163 12006 Halifax West 423 / km² LPC safe
#164 46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley 403 / km² Toss up
#165 24034 La Prairie 378 / km² Toss up
#166 59026 Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke 368 / km² NDP likely
#167 35066 Niagara Centre 362 / km² LPC leaning
#168 59021 North Vancouver 344 / km² LPC safe
#169 35016 Cambridge 333 / km² LPC likely
#170 35044 Kingston and the Islands 330 / km² LPC safe
#171 35004 Barrie–Innisfil 330 / km² CPC likely
#172 24063 Rivière-du-Nord 314 / km² BQ safe
#173 59016 Langley–Aldergrove 313 / km² CPC leaning
#174 24011 Beloeil–Chambly 310 / km² BQ safe
#175 35043 King–Vaughan 310 / km² LPC leaning
#176 24074 Vaudreuil–Soulanges 303 / km² LPC safe
#177 35067 Niagara Falls 268 / km² Toss up
#178 10006 St. John's East 261 / km² NDP likely
#179 35057 Milton 256 / km² LPC safe
#180 47010 Saskatoon–Grasswood 247 / km² CPC likely
#181 59027 Saanich–Gulf Islands 215 / km² GPC safe
#182 59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam 207 / km² LPC likely
#183 13009 Saint John–Rothesay 203 / km² LPC safe
#184 10007 St. John's South–Mount Pearl 194 / km² LPC safe
#185 35085 Pickering–Uxbridge 173 / km² LPC safe
#186 24067 Saint-Jean 162 / km² BQ leaning
#187 35013 Brantford–Brant 157 / km² CPC leaning
#188 35023 Durham 150 / km² CPC leaning
#189 24014 Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères 146 / km² BQ likely
#190 35041 Kanata–Carleton 145 / km² LPC likely
#191 24048 Mirabel 140 / km² BQ safe
#192 12008 Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook 134 / km² LPC likely
#193 35119 York–Simcoe 131 / km² CPC likely
#194 35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook 125 / km² Toss up
#195 24050 Montcalm 123 / km² BQ safe
#196 35026 Essex 114 / km² Toss up
#197 35046 Kitchener–Conestoga 112 / km² LPC leaning
#198 24021 Châteauguay–Lacolle 108 / km² LPC leaning
#199 35103 Sudbury 107 / km² LPC leaning
#200 35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte 104 / km² Toss up
#201 48032 Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan 99.3 / km² CPC safe
#202 35068 Niagara West 91.8 / km² CPC leaning
#203 35088 Carleton 87.4 / km² CPC leaning
#204 35113 Wellington–Halton Hills 81.3 / km² CPC likely
#205 24072 Shefford 81.1 / km² Toss up
#206 59014 Kelowna–Lake Country 76.2 / km² Toss up
#207 35091 Sarnia–Lambton 71.3 / km² CPC safe
#208 59018 Nanaimo–Ladysmith 71 / km² GPC leaning
#209 35099 Simcoe–Grey 69.7 / km² CPC leaning
#210 35006 Bay of Quinte 67.7 / km² LPC leaning
#211 24025 Drummond 64.6 / km² BQ safe
#212 35100 Simcoe North 62.4 / km² CPC leaning
#213 35022 Dufferin–Caledon 59 / km² Toss up
#214 13003 Fredericton 55.4 / km² Toss up
#215 24042 Lévis–Lotbinière 54.9 / km² CPC safe
#216 24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot 54.5 / km² BQ likely
#217 35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington 53.6 / km² CPC likely
#218 24071 Salaberry–Suroît 52.5 / km² BQ likely
#219 35080 Oxford 50.6 / km² CPC safe
#220 59022 Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge 49.4 / km² Toss up
#221 35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London 46.3 / km² CPC safe
#222 35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South 41.2 / km² Toss up
#223 48026 Lethbridge 39.5 / km² CPC safe
#224 35084 Peterborough–Kawartha 39.1 / km² LPC likely
#225 35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry 38.7 / km² CPC safe
#226 35033 Haldimand–Norfolk 38.4 / km² CPC safe
#227 35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell 37.8 / km² LPC likely
#228 24016 Brome–Missisquoi 37.2 / km² LPC leaning
#229 24010 Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis 35.9 / km² CPC safe
#230 24009 Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel 34.4 / km² BQ safe
#231 48021 Edmonton–Wetaskiwin 32.8 / km² CPC safe
#232 24022 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord 32.1 / km² Toss up
#233 24061 Richmond–Arthabaska 31.2 / km² CPC safe
#234 59006 Chilliwack–Hope 30.5 / km² CPC safe
#235 48033 Sturgeon River–Parkland 30.3 / km² CPC safe
#236 35083 Perth–Wellington 30.1 / km² CPC likely
#237 35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes 29.7 / km² CPC likely
#238 24007 Beauce 26.5 / km² CPC likely
#239 24012 Berthier–Maskinongé 24.2 / km² BQ likely
#240 59010 Cowichan–Malahat–Langford 23.7 / km² NDP safe
#241 24023 Compton–Stanstead 23.1 / km² LPC leaning
#242 11003 Egmont 23 / km² LPC safe
#243 11004 Malpeque 22.4 / km² LPC safe
#244 35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex 21.4 / km² CPC safe
#245 48030 Red Deer–Lacombe 20.7 / km² CPC safe
#246 13002 Beauséjour 20.6 / km² LPC safe
#247 12007 Kings–Hants 20.2 / km² LPC safe
#248 24005 Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation 19.3 / km² LPC leaning
#249 35040 Huron–Bruce 19 / km² CPC likely
#250 35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound 17.6 / km² CPC likely
#251 12010 Sydney–Victoria 16.7 / km² LPC likely
#252 24058 Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier 16 / km² CPC safe
#253 35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston 15.7 / km² CPC safe
#254 48029 Red Deer–Mountain View 15.5 / km² CPC safe
#255 13001 Acadie–Bathurst 15.4 / km² LPC safe
#256 24047 Mégantic–L'Érable 14.7 / km² CPC safe
#257 59009 Courtenay–Alberni 14.5 / km² NDP safe
#258 35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock 14.4 / km² CPC safe
#259 11001 Cardigan 14.4 / km² LPC safe
#260 35092 Sault Ste. Marie 14.3 / km² LPC likely
#261 10001 Avalon 13.4 / km² LPC safe
#262 24051 Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup 13.1 / km² CPC likely
#263 24031 Joliette 12.7 / km² BQ safe
#264 35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington 11.3 / km² Toss up
#265 13004 Fundy Royal 11.1 / km² CPC leaning
#266 48001 Banff–Airdrie 11 / km² CPC safe
#267 24018 Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques 11 / km² BQ likely
#268 12009 South Shore–St. Margarets 10.8 / km² LPC safe
#269 12003 Cumberland–Colchester 10.2 / km² LPC likely
#270 12011 West Nova 9.23 / km² LPC leaning
#271 59042 West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country 9.16 / km² LPC safe
#272 35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke 9.03 / km² CPC safe
#273 24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix 8.38 / km² BQ leaning
#274 12001 Cape Breton–Canso 8.22 / km² LPC likely
#275 46007 Portage–Lisgar 7.78 / km² CPC safe
#276 12002 Central Nova 7.73 / km² LPC likely
#277 59020 North Okanagan–Shuswap 7.7 / km² CPC likely
#278 35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka 7.53 / km² CPC leaning
#279 59005 Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola 6.9 / km² CPC likely
#280 35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming 6.72 / km² LPC safe
#281 13008 New Brunswick Southwest 6.59 / km² CPC likely
#282 59029 South Okanagan–West Kootenay 6.48 / km² NDP likely
#283 24038 Laurentides–Labelle 6.4 / km² BQ leaning
#284 47008 Regina–Qu'Appelle 5.84 / km² CPC safe
#285 46008 Provencher 5.52 / km² CPC safe
#286 48022 Foothills 5.43 / km² CPC safe
#287 13005 Madawaska–Restigouche 5.16 / km² LPC safe
#288 24006 Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia 4.97 / km² BQ likely
#289 46001 Brandon–Souris 4.94 / km² CPC safe
#290 46010 Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman 4.93 / km² CPC safe
#291 48003 Bow River 4.79 / km² CPC safe
#292 13010 Tobique–Mactaquac 4.71 / km² CPC likely
#293 24026 Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 4.51 / km² LPC leaning
#294 59017 Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon 4.44 / km² Toss up
#295 10002 Bonavista–Burin–Trinity 4.41 / km² LPC safe
#296 24057 Pontiac 4.23 / km² LPC safe
#297 47006 Prince Albert 4.21 / km² CPC safe
#298 48027 Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner 3.62 / km² CPC safe
#299 35069 Nickel Belt 3.5 / km² Toss up
#300 48025 Lakeland 3.46 / km² CPC safe
#301 13006 Miramichi–Grand Lake 3.4 / km² LPC likely
#302 59013 Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo 3.29 / km² Toss up
#303 24070 Saint-Maurice–Champlain 3.19 / km² LPC likely
#304 24002 Abitibi–Témiscamingue 3.09 / km² BQ likely
#305 47004 Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek 2.84 / km² CPC safe
#306 35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River 2.53 / km² Toss up
#307 47001 Battlefords–Lloydminster 2.49 / km² CPC safe
#308 47005 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan 2.47 / km² CPC safe
#309 24032 Jonquière 2.29 / km² BQ likely
#310 10005 Long Range Mountains 2.28 / km² LPC safe
#311 48002 Battle River–Crowfoot 2.12 / km² CPC safe
#312 10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame 1.97 / km² LPC safe
#313 59037 North Island–Powell River 1.97 / km² NDP safe
#314 24035 Lac-Saint-Jean 1.84 / km² BQ likely
#315 59015 Kootenay–Columbia 1.77 / km² Toss up
#316 46004 Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa 1.72 / km² CPC safe
#317 47013 Souris–Moose Mountain 1.72 / km² CPC safe
#318 47014 Yorkton–Melville 1.67 / km² CPC safe
#319 48034 Yellowhead 1.32 / km² CPC safe
#320 59004 Cariboo–Prince George 1.31 / km² CPC safe
#321 35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North 1.08 / km² LPC safe
#322 48024 Grande Prairie–Mackenzie 1.04 / km² CPC safe
#323 48028 Peace River–Westlock 1.03 / km² CPC safe
#324 47002 Cypress Hills–Grasslands 0.9 / km² CPC safe
#325 35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing 0.85 / km² NDP safe
#326 48023 Fort McMurray–Cold Lake 0.76 / km² CPC safe
#327 59024 Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies 0.44 / km² CPC safe
#328 24046 Manicouagan 0.37 / km² BQ safe
#329 35107 Timmins–James Bay 0.34 / km² NDP safe
#330 59028 Skeena–Bulkley Valley 0.27 / km² NDP safe
#331 47003 Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River 0.23 / km² Toss up
#332 35042 Kenora 0.21 / km² Toss up
#333 46003 Churchill–Keewatinook Aski 0.2 / km² NDP likely
#334 24001 Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou 0.11 / km² BQ leaning
#335 10004 Labrador 0.1 / km² LPC likely
#336 60001 Yukon 0.08 / km² Toss up
#337 61001 Northwest Territories 0.04 / km² LPC leaning
#338 62001 Nunavut 0.02 / km² NDP leaning



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