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Alberta

Welcome to 338Canada Alberta!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Alberta


Latest update: January 20, 2024

Popular vote projection 52% ± 5%▲ 44% ± 5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 44 seats for a majority 52▲ [41-63] 35▼ [24-46] 0 0 338Canada seat projection | January 20, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 93%▲ 7%▼ <1% Tie <1% Odds of winning | January 20, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 93%▲ UCP maj. 7%▼ NDP maj. <1% UCP min. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | January 20, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Alberta | Popular vote projection

UCP NDP UCP 52% ± 5% NDP 44% ± 5% Popular vote projection % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023

Alberta | Seat projection

UCP 52 [41-63] NDP 35 [24-46] Seat projection 60 50 40 30 20 10 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP Majority: 44 seats

Alberta | Odds of winning the most seats

UCP 93% NDP 7% ABP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP ABP

Alberta | Odds of election outcome

UCP majority 93% NDP majority 7% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2023 UCP majority NDP majority