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Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Quebec


Latest update: March 4, 2024

Popular vote projection 31% ± 4%▼ 24% ± 3% 16% ± 3% 15% ± 2% 12% ± 3%▲ Popular vote projection | March 4, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 53▼ [39-69] 27▲ [21-30] 22▲ [9-38] 15 [11-18] 8▲ [2-12] 338Canada seat projection | March 4, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 95%▲ 5%▼ 1% Tie <1% Odds of winning | March 4, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 73%▲ PQ min. 21%▼ PQ maj. 5%▼ CAQ min. 1% Tie Odds of outcome | March 4, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Quebec | Popular vote projection

LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP LIB 15% ± 2% PQ 31% ± 4% CAQ 24% ± 3% QS 16% ± 3% QCP 12% ± 3% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2022 March 4, 2024

Quebec | Seat projection

LIB 27 [21-30] PQ 53 [39-69] CAQ 22 [9-38] QS 15 [11-18] QCP 8 [2-12] Seat projection 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP Majority: 63 seats March 4, 2024

Quebec | Odds of winning the most seats

PQ 95% CAQ 5% Tie 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2022 PLQ PQ CAQ QS Tie March 4, 2024

Quebec | Odds of election outcome

PQ majority 21% PQ minority 73% CAQ minority 5% Tie 1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2022 PQ majority PQ minority CAQ minority Tie March 4, 2024