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Newfoundland & labrador

Avalon, 11 districts



Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
3 3 1 1 8 6
2 0 0 0 2 4
0 1 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
Projected ahead Last election (2021)
8 6
2 4
1 1
0 0




Projection | the Avalon


Latest update: October 17, 2023
Avalon 42% ± 4% 35% ± 3% 18% ± 3% 5% ± 1% IND 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 17, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Avalon, 11 districts 8▲ [7-8] 2▼ [2-3] 1 [1-1] IND 0 [0-0] 338Canada seat projection | October 17, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Avalon

LIB 35% ± 3% PC 42% ± 4% NDP 18% ± 3% IND 5% ± 1% Popular vote projection % | Avalon 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP

Seat projection | Avalon

LIB 2 [2-3] PC 8 [7-8] IND 1 [1-1] Seat projection | Avalon 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC

List of electoral districts


Latest update: October 17, 2023
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
005 Cape St. Francis PC safe
006 Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde LIB safe
008 Conception Bay East-Bell Island PC safe
009 Conception Bay South PC safe
012 Ferryland PC likely
017 Harbour Grace-Port de Grave LIB safe
018 Harbour Main PC likely
024 Mount Pearl North PC leaning
025 Mount Pearl-Southlands IND likely
028 Placentia-St. Mary’s Toss up
036 Topsail-Paradise PC likely
Electoral district
005 Cape St. Francis
006 Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde
008 Conception Bay East-Bell Island
009 Conception Bay South
012 Ferryland
017 Harbour Grace-Port de Grave
018 Harbour Main
024 Mount Pearl North
025 Mount Pearl-Southlands
028 Placentia-St. Mary’s
036 Topsail-Paradise