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Saskatchewan

Welcome to 338Canada Saskatchewan!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Saskatchewan


Latest update: March 16, 2024

Popular vote projection 49% ± 5% 40% ± 5% 5% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 16, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 31 seats for a majority 38▲ [31-46] 23▼ [15-30] 0 0 338Canada Saskatchewan | March 16, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 99%▲ 1%▼ <1% Tie <1% Odds of winning | March 16, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 99% SKP maj. 1% NDP maj. <1% SKP min. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | March 16, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Saskatchewan | Popular vote projection

SPP SKP NDP GRN BUF PC SUP SPP 0% ± 0% SKP 49% ± 5% NDP 40% ± 5% GRN 2% ± 1% BUF 2% ± 1% PC 2% ± 1% SUP 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024

Saskatchewan | Seat projection

SKP 38 [31-46] NDP 23 [15-30] Seat projection 50 40 30 20 10 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 SKP NDP Majority: 31 seats

Saskatchewan | Odds of winning the most seats

SKP 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 LIB SKP NDP GRN Tie

Saskatchewan | Odds of election outcome

SKP majority 99% NDP majority 1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 SKP majority NDP majority