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Welcome to 338Canada !


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection


Latest update: November 4, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] DC 3 Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] VT 3 Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MA 11 Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MD 10 California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CA 54 Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] HI 4 New York, Likely Harris 28 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NY 28 Washington, Likely Harris 12 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WA 12 New Jersey, Likely Harris 14 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NJ 14 Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OR 8 Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] RI 4 Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CT 7 Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] CO 10 Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] DE 3 Illinois, Likely Harris 19 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IL 19 Minnesota, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MN 10 Virginia, Likely Harris 13 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] VA 13 Maine, Leaning Harris 4 Electoral Votes [EV given according to districts] ME* 4 New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NM 5 New Hampshire, Leaning Harris 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NH 4 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WI 10 Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MI 15 Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] PA 19 Nevada, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NV 6 North Carolina, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] NC 16 Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] GA 16 Arizona, Toss up 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AZ 11 Iowa, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IA 6 Texas, Leaning Trump 40 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] TX 40 Ohio, Leaning Trump 17 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OH 17 Alaska, Likely Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AK 3 Florida, Likely Trump 30 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] FL 30 Kansas, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] KS 6 Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MO 10 South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] SC 9 Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MT 4 Nebraska, Likely Trump 5 Electoral Votes [EV given according to districts] NE* 5 Mississippi, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] MS 6 Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] IN 11 Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] LA 8 Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AR 6 North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] ND 3 South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] SD 3 Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] TN 11 Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] AL 9 Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] UT 6 Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] ID 4 Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] KY 8 Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] OK 7 West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WV 4 Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes [Winner-take-all] WY 3 WI MI PA NV NC GA AZ IA Toss-ups District of Columbia 262 Trump Harris 276 [201-315] [223-337] 270 EV to win Harris 54%▼ Tie 1% ▲45% Trump Odds of winning Electoral College 338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection | November 4, 2024 Trump 45% Harris 54% Tie 1% Odds of winning Electoral College 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Odds of winning Electoral College November 4, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 62% Harris 38% Tie 1% 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 58% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 59% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 62% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 63% Harris 36% Tie 1% 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie <1% 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 64% Harris 36% Tie 1% 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 65% Harris 35% Tie 1% 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 68% Harris 32% Tie <1% 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 69% Harris 31% Tie <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 69% Harris 30% Tie <1% 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 71% Harris 28% Tie <1% 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 74% Harris 25% Tie <1% 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 73% Harris 26% Tie 1% 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 73% Harris 26% Tie 1% 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 71% Harris 28% Tie 1% 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 69% Harris 31% Tie 1% 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 66% Harris 34% Tie 1% 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 63% Harris 37% Tie 1% 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 58% Harris 41% Tie 1% 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 56% Harris 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Trump 52% Harris 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 51% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 50% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 55% Trump 44% Tie 1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Harris 53% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Harris 57% Trump 43% Tie 1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Harris 56% Trump 43% Tie 1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Harris 58% Trump 42% Tie 1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Harris 58% Trump 41% Tie <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Harris 56% Trump 43% Tie 1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-08 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-10 Harris 50% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-14 Trump 51% Harris 49% Tie 1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-17 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-22 Harris 53% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-10-22 2024-10-26 Harris 54% Trump 46% Tie 1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-29 Harris 52% Trump 47% Tie 1% 2024-10-29 2024-10-30 Harris 51% Trump 48% Tie 1% 2024-10-30 2024-11-01 Harris 50% Trump 49% Tie 1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-02 Trump 50% Harris 49% Tie 1% 2024-11-02 2024-11-03 Harris 57% Trump 43% Tie 1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-04 Harris 54% Trump 45% Tie 1% 2024-11-04 [▲▼: movement since previous update]


Odds of winning Electoral College if...

If Trump wins Wisconsin... If Trump wins Wisconsin... If Trump wins Wisconsin... 22% 78% If Trump wins Michigan... If Trump wins Michigan... If Trump wins Michigan... 19% 80% If Trump wins Pennsylvania... If Trump wins Pennsylvania... If Trump wins Pennsylvania... 18% 82% If Trump wins Nevada... If Trump wins Nevada... If Trump wins Nevada... 30% 70% If Trump wins North Carolina... If Trump wins North Carolina... If Trump wins North Carolina... 26% 73% If Trump wins Georgia... If Trump wins Georgia... If Trump wins Georgia... 28% 71% If Trump wins Arizona... If Trump wins Arizona... If Trump wins Arizona... 32% 68% If Trump wins Iowa... If Trump wins Iowa... If Trump wins Iowa... 38% 61% Latest update: November 4, 2024
If Harris wins Wisconsin... If Harris wins Wisconsin... If Harris wins Wisconsin... 75% 24% If Harris wins Michigan... If Harris wins Michigan... If Harris wins Michigan... 79% 20% If Harris wins Pennsylvania... If Harris wins Pennsylvania... If Harris wins Pennsylvania... 83% 16% If Harris wins Nevada... If Harris wins Nevada... If Harris wins Nevada... 75% 24% If Harris wins North Carolina... If Harris wins North Carolina... If Harris wins North Carolina... 86% 13% If Harris wins Georgia... If Harris wins Georgia... If Harris wins Georgia... 88% 12% If Harris wins Arizona... If Harris wins Arizona... If Harris wins Arizona... 85% 14% If Harris wins Iowa... If Harris wins Iowa... If Harris wins Iowa... 83% 17% Latest update: November 4, 2024



[Probability density chart below is a work in progress... More to come soon.] 440 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 Electoral Votes 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 360+ 9% 270-299 20% 330-359 9% 300-329 18% 300-329 16% 330-359 6% 270-299 20% 360+ 1% Trump wins 45% Harris wins 54% November 4, 2024

District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes DC DC DC Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes VT VT VT Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes HI HI HI HI New York, Likely Harris 28 Electoral Votes NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY Maine-1, Likely Harris 1 Electoral Vote ME1 Washington, Likely Harris 12 Electoral Votes WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA New Jersey, Likely Harris 14 Electoral Votes NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes RI RI RI RI Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes CT CT CT CT CT CT CT Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes DE DE DE Illinois, Likely Harris 19 Electoral Votes IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL Minnesota, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN Virginia, Likely Harris 13 Electoral Votes VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA Maine, Leaning Harris 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) ME ME New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes NM NM NM NM NM New Hampshire, Leaning Harris 4 Electoral Votes NH NH NH NH Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris 1 Electoral Vote NE2 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA Nevada, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes NV NV NV NV NV NV North Carolina, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA Arizona, Toss up 11 Electoral Votes AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ Iowa, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes IA IA IA IA IA IA Maine-2, Leaning Trump 1 Electoral Vote ME2 Texas, Leaning Trump 40 Electoral Votes TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX Ohio, Leaning Trump 17 Electoral Votes OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH Alaska, Likely Trump 3 Electoral Votes AK AK AK Florida, Likely Trump 30 Electoral Votes FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL Nebraska-1, Likely Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE1 Kansas, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes KS KS KS KS KS KS Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes MT MT MT MT Nebraska, Likely Trump 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) NE NE Mississippi, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes MS MS MS MS MS MS Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes AR AR AR AR AR AR North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes ND ND ND South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes SD SD SD Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes UT UT UT UT UT UT Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes ID ID ID ID Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes OK OK OK OK OK OK OK West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes WV WV WV WV Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes WY WY WY Nebraska-3, Safe Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE3 DC DC DC VT VT VT MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA HI HI HI HI NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY ME1 WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR RI RI RI RI CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO DE DE DE IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA ME ME NM NM NM NM NM NH NH NH NH NE2 WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA NV NV NV NV NV NV NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ IA IA IA IA IA IA ME2 TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH AK AK AK FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL NE1 KS KS KS KS KS KS MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC MT MT MT MT NE NE MS MS MS MS MS MS IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA AR AR AR AR AR AR ND ND ND SD SD SD TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL AL UT UT UT UT UT UT ID ID ID ID KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY OK OK OK OK OK OK OK WV WV WV WV WY WY WY NE3 270 EV to win 338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection Latest update: November 4, 2024 262 Trump [201-315] Harris 276 [223-337]
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 District de Columbia, Harris solide 3 Grands Électeurs DC+84 Vermont, Harris solide 3 Grands Électeurs VT+36 Massachusetts, Harris solide 11 Grands Électeurs MA+31 Maryland, Harris solide 10 Grands Électeurs MD+30 Californie, Harris solide 54 Grands Électeurs CA+26 Hawaii, Harris solide 4 Grands Électeurs HI+25 Maine-1, Harris probable 1 Grand Électeur ME1+25 Washington, Harris probable 12 Grands Électeurs WA+17 New York, Harris probable 28 Grands Électeurs NY+17 Rhode Island, Harris probable 4 Grands Électeurs RI+16 Delaware, Harris probable 3 Grands Électeurs DE+15 New Jersey, Harris probable 14 Grands Électeurs NJ+13 Connecticut, Harris probable 7 Grands Électeurs CT+13 Oregon, Harris probable 8 Grands Électeurs OR+13 Colorado, Harris probable 10 Grands Électeurs CO+12 Illinois, Harris probable 19 Grands Électeurs IL+10 Minnesota, Harris probable 10 Grands Électeurs MN+9 Maine, Harris enclin 2 Grands Électeurs (*plus un GÉ par district) ME+9 Virginie, Harris probable 13 Grands Électeurs VA+8 Nouveau-Mexique, Harris enclin 5 Grands Électeurs NM+7 New Hampshire, Harris enclin 4 Grands Électeurs NH+7 Nebraska-2, Harris enclin 1 Grand Électeur NE2+6 Wisconsin, Pivot 10 Grands Électeurs WI+2 Michigan, Pivot 15 Grands Électeurs MI+1 Tipping point: PA Pennsylvanie, Pivot 19 Grands Électeurs PA+0.8 Nevada, Pivot 6 Grands Électeurs NV+0.6 Caroline du Nord, Pivot 16 Grands Électeurs NC+0.6 Georgie, Pivot 16 Grands Électeurs GA+1.0 Arizona, Pivot 11 Grands Électeurs AZ+1 Iowa, Pivot 6 Grands Électeurs IA+2 Texas, Trump enclin 40 Grands Électeurs TX+6 Ohio, Trump enclin 17 Grands Électeurs OH+6 Maine-2, Trump enclin 1 Grand Électeur ME2+8 Floride, Trump probable 30 Grands Électeurs FL+9 Alaska, Trump probable 3 Grands Électeurs AK+12 Missouri, Trump probable 10 Grands Électeurs MO+12 Kansas, Trump probable 6 Grands Électeurs KS+13 Caroline du Sud, Trump probable 9 Grands Électeurs SC+13 Nebraska-1, Trump probable 1 Grand Électeur NE1+16 Montana, Trump probable 4 Grands Électeurs MT+18 Indiana, Trump solide 11 Grands Électeurs IN+19 Louisiane, Trump solide 8 Grands Électeurs LA+20 Nebraska, Trump probable 2 Grands Électeurs (*plus un GÉ par district) NE+20 Mississippi, Trump probable 6 Grands Électeurs MS+21 Arkansas, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs AR+23 Tennessee, Trump solide 11 Grands Électeurs TN+24 Alabama, Trump solide 9 Grands Électeurs AL+25 Utah, Trump solide 6 Grands Électeurs UT+27 Kentucky, Trump solide 8 Grands Électeurs KY+28 Idaho, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs ID+29 Dakota du Nord, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs ND+30 Dakota du Sud, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs SD+31 Oklahoma, Trump solide 7 Grands Électeurs OK+34 Virginie Occidentale, Trump solide 4 Grands Électeurs WV+34 Wyoming, Trump solide 3 Grands Électeurs WY+44 Nebraska-3, Trump solide 1 Grand Électeur NE3+51 The Tipping Point District of Columbia, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes DC+84 Vermont, Safe Harris 3 Electoral Votes VT+36 Massachusetts, Safe Harris 11 Electoral Votes MA+31 Maryland, Safe Harris 10 Electoral Votes MD+30 California, Safe Harris 54 Electoral Votes CA+26 Hawaii, Safe Harris 4 Electoral Votes HI+25 Maine-1, Likely Harris 1 Electoral Vote ME1+25 Washington, Likely Harris 12 Electoral Votes WA+17 New York, Likely Harris 28 Electoral Votes NY+17 Rhode Island, Likely Harris 4 Electoral Votes RI+16 Delaware, Likely Harris 3 Electoral Votes DE+15 New Jersey, Likely Harris 14 Electoral Votes NJ+13 Connecticut, Likely Harris 7 Electoral Votes CT+13 Oregon, Likely Harris 8 Electoral Votes OR+13 Colorado, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes CO+12 Illinois, Likely Harris 19 Electoral Votes IL+10 Minnesota, Likely Harris 10 Electoral Votes MN+9 Maine, Leaning Harris 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) ME+9 Virginia, Likely Harris 13 Electoral Votes VA+8 New Mexico, Leaning Harris 5 Electoral Votes NM+7 New Hampshire, Leaning Harris 4 Electoral Votes NH+7 Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris 1 Electoral Vote NE2+6 Wisconsin, Toss up 10 Electoral Votes WI+2 Michigan, Toss up 15 Electoral Votes MI+1 Tipping point: PA Pennsylvania, Toss up 19 Electoral Votes PA+0.8 Nevada, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes NV+0.6 North Carolina, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes NC+0.6 Georgia, Toss up 16 Electoral Votes GA+1.0 Arizona, Toss up 11 Electoral Votes AZ+1 Iowa, Toss up 6 Electoral Votes IA+2 Texas, Leaning Trump 40 Electoral Votes TX+6 Ohio, Leaning Trump 17 Electoral Votes OH+6 Maine-2, Leaning Trump 1 Electoral Vote ME2+8 Florida, Likely Trump 30 Electoral Votes FL+9 Alaska, Likely Trump 3 Electoral Votes AK+12 Missouri, Likely Trump 10 Electoral Votes MO+12 Kansas, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes KS+13 South Carolina, Likely Trump 9 Electoral Votes SC+13 Nebraska-1, Likely Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE1+16 Montana, Likely Trump 4 Electoral Votes MT+18 Indiana, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes IN+19 Louisiana, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes LA+20 Nebraska, Likely Trump 2 Electoral Votes (*Plus one EV per congressional district) NE+20 Mississippi, Likely Trump 6 Electoral Votes MS+21 Arkansas, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes AR+23 Tennessee, Safe Trump 11 Electoral Votes TN+24 Alabama, Safe Trump 9 Electoral Votes AL+25 Utah, Safe Trump 6 Electoral Votes UT+27 Kentucky, Safe Trump 8 Electoral Votes KY+28 Idaho, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes ID+29 North Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes ND+30 South Dakota, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes SD+31 Oklahoma, Safe Trump 7 Electoral Votes OK+34 West Virginia, Safe Trump 4 Electoral Votes WV+34 Wyoming, Safe Trump 3 Electoral Votes WY+44 Nebraska-3, Safe Trump 1 Electoral Vote NE3+51 The Tipping Point November 4, 2024

Electoral College Projection

Trump 262 [201-315] Harris 276 [223-337] Seat projection 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Biden drops out Trump Harris 270 EV to win November 4, 2024 2024-06-11 Trump 278 Harris 260 2024-06-11 2024-06-13 Trump 297 Harris 241 2024-06-13 2024-06-15 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-06-15 2024-06-17 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-17 2024-06-19 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-19 2024-06-21 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-21 2024-06-23 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-06-23 2024-06-25 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-25 2024-06-27 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-27 2024-06-29 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-06-29 2024-07-01 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-01 2024-07-03 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-03 2024-07-05 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-05 2024-07-07 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-07 2024-07-09 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-09 2024-07-11 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-11 2024-07-13 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-13 2024-07-15 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-15 2024-07-17 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-17 2024-07-19 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-19 2024-07-23 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-07-23 2024-07-25 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-25 2024-07-27 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-27 2024-07-29 Trump 302 Harris 236 2024-07-29 2024-07-31 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-07-31 2024-08-02 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-08-02 2024-08-04 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-08-04 2024-08-06 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-08-06 2024-08-08 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-08-08 2024-08-10 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-10 2024-08-12 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-12 2024-08-14 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-14 2024-08-16 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-08-16 2024-08-18 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-18 2024-08-20 Harris 281 Trump 257 2024-08-20 2024-08-22 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-22 2024-08-24 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-24 2024-08-26 Harris 298 Trump 240 2024-08-26 2024-08-28 Harris 282 Trump 256 2024-08-28 2024-08-30 Harris 277 Trump 261 2024-08-30 2024-09-01 Harris 277 Trump 261 2024-09-01 2024-09-03 Harris 293 Trump 245 2024-09-03 2024-09-05 Harris 271 Trump 267 2024-09-05 2024-09-09 Trump 270 Harris 268 2024-09-09 2024-09-11 Trump 270 Harris 268 2024-09-11 2024-09-13 Harris 287 Trump 251 2024-09-13 2024-09-15 Harris 287 Trump 251 2024-09-15 2024-09-17 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-09-17 2024-09-19 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-19 2024-09-23 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-25 2024-09-27 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-27 2024-09-29 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-09-29 2024-10-03 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-10-03 2024-10-05 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-10-05 2024-10-08 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-08 2024-10-10 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-10 2024-10-14 Trump 312 Harris 226 2024-10-14 2024-10-17 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-17 2024-10-22 Harris 286 Trump 252 2024-10-22 2024-10-26 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-26 2024-10-29 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-29 2024-10-30 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-10-30 2024-11-01 Trump 287 Harris 251 2024-11-01 2024-11-02 Harris 270 Trump 268 2024-11-02 2024-11-03 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-11-03 2024-11-04 Harris 276 Trump 262 2024-11-04