Welcome to 338Canada !
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for
L'actualité magazine and a contributor to
Politico Canada , as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts
The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.
Please subscribe to the
338Canada newsletter here , and enjoy the website!
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection
Latest update: November 4, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
DC 3
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
VT 3
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MA 11
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MD 10
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CA 54
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
HI 4
New York, Likely Harris
28 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NY 28
Washington, Likely Harris
12 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WA 12
New Jersey, Likely Harris
14 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NJ 14
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OR 8
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
RI 4
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CT 7
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
CO 10
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
DE 3
Illinois, Likely Harris
19 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IL 19
Minnesota, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MN 10
Virginia, Likely Harris
13 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
VA 13
Maine, Leaning Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[EV given according to districts]
ME* 4
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NM 5
New Hampshire, Leaning Harris
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NH 4
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WI 10
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MI 15
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
PA 19
Nevada, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NV 6
North Carolina, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
NC 16
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
GA 16
Arizona, Toss up
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AZ 11
Iowa, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IA 6
Texas, Leaning Trump
40 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
TX 40
Ohio, Leaning Trump
17 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OH 17
Alaska, Likely Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AK 3
Florida, Likely Trump
30 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
FL 30
Kansas, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
KS 6
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MO 10
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
SC 9
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MT 4
Nebraska, Likely Trump
5 Electoral Votes
[EV given according to districts]
NE* 5
Mississippi, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
MS 6
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
IN 11
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
LA 8
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AR 6
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
ND 3
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
SD 3
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
TN 11
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
AL 9
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
UT 6
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
ID 4
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
KY 8
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
OK 7
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WV 4
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
[Winner-take-all]
WY 3
WI
MI
PA
NV
NC
GA
AZ
IA
Toss-ups
District of Columbia
262 Trump
Harris 276
[201-315]
[223-337]
270 EV to win
Harris 54%▼
Tie 1%
▲45% Trump
Odds of winning Electoral College
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection | November 4, 2024
Trump 45%
Harris 54%
Tie 1%
Odds of winning Electoral College
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2024-07-01
2024-08-01
2024-09-01
2024-10-01
2024-11-01
Election 2024
Biden drops out
Odds of winning Electoral College
November 4, 2024
2024-06-11
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-11
2024-06-13
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-13
2024-06-15
Trump 62%
Harris 38%
Tie 1%
2024-06-15
2024-06-17
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-17
2024-06-19
Trump 58%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-06-19
2024-06-21
Trump 59%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-06-21
2024-06-23
Trump 62%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-23
2024-06-25
Trump 63%
Harris 36%
Tie 1%
2024-06-25
2024-06-27
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-06-27
2024-06-29
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie <1%
2024-06-29
2024-07-01
Trump 64%
Harris 36%
Tie 1%
2024-07-01
2024-07-03
Trump 65%
Harris 35%
Tie 1%
2024-07-03
2024-07-05
Trump 68%
Harris 32%
Tie <1%
2024-07-05
2024-07-07
Trump 69%
Harris 31%
Tie <1%
2024-07-07
2024-07-09
Trump 69%
Harris 30%
Tie <1%
2024-07-09
2024-07-11
Trump 71%
Harris 28%
Tie <1%
2024-07-11
2024-07-13
Trump 74%
Harris 25%
Tie <1%
2024-07-13
2024-07-15
Trump 73%
Harris 26%
Tie 1%
2024-07-15
2024-07-17
Trump 73%
Harris 26%
Tie 1%
2024-07-17
2024-07-19
Trump 71%
Harris 28%
Tie 1%
2024-07-19
2024-07-23
Trump 69%
Harris 31%
Tie 1%
2024-07-23
2024-07-25
Trump 66%
Harris 34%
Tie 1%
2024-07-25
2024-07-27
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-07-27
2024-07-29
Trump 63%
Harris 37%
Tie 1%
2024-07-29
2024-07-31
Trump 58%
Harris 41%
Tie 1%
2024-07-31
2024-08-02
Trump 56%
Harris 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-02
2024-08-04
Trump 52%
Harris 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-04
2024-08-06
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-06
2024-08-08
Harris 51%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-08-08
2024-08-10
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-10
2024-08-12
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-12
2024-08-14
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-08-14
2024-08-16
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-16
2024-08-18
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-18
2024-08-20
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-20
2024-08-22
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-08-22
2024-08-24
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-24
2024-08-26
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-08-26
2024-08-28
Harris 50%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-08-28
2024-08-30
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-08-30
2024-09-01
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-09-01
2024-09-03
Harris 55%
Trump 44%
Tie 1%
2024-09-03
2024-09-05
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-09-05
2024-09-09
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-09
2024-09-11
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-11
2024-09-13
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-09-13
2024-09-15
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-09-15
2024-09-17
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-17
2024-09-19
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-09-19
2024-09-23
Harris 57%
Trump 43%
Tie 1%
2024-09-23
2024-09-25
Harris 56%
Trump 43%
Tie 1%
2024-09-25
2024-09-27
Harris 58%
Trump 42%
Tie 1%
2024-09-27
2024-09-29
Harris 58%
Trump 41%
Tie <1%
2024-09-29
2024-10-03
Harris 56%
Trump 43%
Tie 1%
2024-10-03
2024-10-05
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-10-05
2024-10-08
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-10-08
2024-10-10
Harris 50%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-10-10
2024-10-14
Trump 51%
Harris 49%
Tie 1%
2024-10-14
2024-10-17
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-10-17
2024-10-22
Harris 53%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-10-22
2024-10-26
Harris 54%
Trump 46%
Tie 1%
2024-10-26
2024-10-29
Harris 52%
Trump 47%
Tie 1%
2024-10-29
2024-10-30
Harris 51%
Trump 48%
Tie 1%
2024-10-30
2024-11-01
Harris 50%
Trump 49%
Tie 1%
2024-11-01
2024-11-02
Trump 50%
Harris 49%
Tie 1%
2024-11-02
2024-11-03
Harris 57%
Trump 43%
Tie 1%
2024-11-03
2024-11-04
Harris 54%
Trump 45%
Tie 1%
2024-11-04
[▲▼: movement since previous update]
Odds of winning Electoral College if...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
If Trump wins Wisconsin...
22%
78%
If Trump wins Michigan...
If Trump wins Michigan...
If Trump wins Michigan...
19%
80%
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
If Trump wins Pennsylvania...
18%
82%
If Trump wins Nevada...
If Trump wins Nevada...
If Trump wins Nevada...
30%
70%
If Trump wins North Carolina...
If Trump wins North Carolina...
If Trump wins North Carolina...
26%
73%
If Trump wins Georgia...
If Trump wins Georgia...
If Trump wins Georgia...
28%
71%
If Trump wins Arizona...
If Trump wins Arizona...
If Trump wins Arizona...
32%
68%
If Trump wins Iowa...
If Trump wins Iowa...
If Trump wins Iowa...
38%
61%
Latest update: November 4, 2024
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
If Harris wins Wisconsin...
75%
24%
If Harris wins Michigan...
If Harris wins Michigan...
If Harris wins Michigan...
79%
20%
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
If Harris wins Pennsylvania...
83%
16%
If Harris wins Nevada...
If Harris wins Nevada...
If Harris wins Nevada...
75%
24%
If Harris wins North Carolina...
If Harris wins North Carolina...
If Harris wins North Carolina...
86%
13%
If Harris wins Georgia...
If Harris wins Georgia...
If Harris wins Georgia...
88%
12%
If Harris wins Arizona...
If Harris wins Arizona...
If Harris wins Arizona...
85%
14%
If Harris wins Iowa...
If Harris wins Iowa...
If Harris wins Iowa...
83%
17%
Latest update: November 4, 2024
[Probability density chart below is a work in progress... More to come soon.]
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
Electoral Votes
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
360+
9%
270-299
20%
330-359
9%
300-329
18%
300-329
16%
330-359
6%
270-299
20%
360+
1%
Trump wins 45%
Harris wins 54%
November 4, 2024
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DC
DC
DC
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
VT
VT
VT
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
HI
HI
HI
HI
New York, Likely Harris
28 Electoral Votes
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
Maine-1, Likely Harris
1 Electoral Vote
ME1
Washington, Likely Harris
12 Electoral Votes
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
New Jersey, Likely Harris
14 Electoral Votes
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
RI
RI
RI
RI
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DE
DE
DE
Illinois, Likely Harris
19 Electoral Votes
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
Minnesota, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
Virginia, Likely Harris
13 Electoral Votes
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
Maine, Leaning Harris
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
ME
ME
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
New Hampshire, Leaning Harris
4 Electoral Votes
NH
NH
NH
NH
Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris
1 Electoral Vote
NE2
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
Nevada, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
North Carolina, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
Arizona, Toss up
11 Electoral Votes
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
Iowa, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
Maine-2, Leaning Trump
1 Electoral Vote
ME2
Texas, Leaning Trump
40 Electoral Votes
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
Ohio, Leaning Trump
17 Electoral Votes
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
Alaska, Likely Trump
3 Electoral Votes
AK
AK
AK
Florida, Likely Trump
30 Electoral Votes
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
Nebraska-1, Likely Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE1
Kansas, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
MT
MT
MT
MT
Nebraska, Likely Trump
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
NE
NE
Mississippi, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
ND
ND
ND
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
SD
SD
SD
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
ID
ID
ID
ID
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
WV
WV
WV
WV
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
WY
WY
WY
Nebraska-3, Safe Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE3
DC
DC
DC
VT
VT
VT
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
HI
HI
HI
HI
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
ME1
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WA
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
RI
RI
RI
RI
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
DE
DE
DE
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
IL
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
MN
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
ME
ME
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NH
NH
NH
NH
NE2
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
MI
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NV
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
GA
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
AZ
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
IA
ME2
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
AK
AK
AK
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
NE1
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
MT
MT
MT
MT
NE
NE
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
IN
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
AR
ND
ND
ND
SD
SD
SD
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
AL
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
UT
ID
ID
ID
ID
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
WV
WV
WV
WV
WY
WY
WY
NE3
270 EV to win
338Canada U.S. Presidential Projection
Latest update: November 4, 2024
262 Trump
[201-315]
Harris 276
[223-337]
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
District de Columbia, Harris solide
3 Grands Électeurs
DC+84
Vermont, Harris solide
3 Grands Électeurs
VT+36
Massachusetts, Harris solide
11 Grands Électeurs
MA+31
Maryland, Harris solide
10 Grands Électeurs
MD+30
Californie, Harris solide
54 Grands Électeurs
CA+26
Hawaii, Harris solide
4 Grands Électeurs
HI+25
Maine-1, Harris probable
1 Grand Électeur
ME1+25
Washington, Harris probable
12 Grands Électeurs
WA+17
New York, Harris probable
28 Grands Électeurs
NY+17
Rhode Island, Harris probable
4 Grands Électeurs
RI+16
Delaware, Harris probable
3 Grands Électeurs
DE+15
New Jersey, Harris probable
14 Grands Électeurs
NJ+13
Connecticut, Harris probable
7 Grands Électeurs
CT+13
Oregon, Harris probable
8 Grands Électeurs
OR+13
Colorado, Harris probable
10 Grands Électeurs
CO+12
Illinois, Harris probable
19 Grands Électeurs
IL+10
Minnesota, Harris probable
10 Grands Électeurs
MN+9
Maine, Harris enclin
2 Grands Électeurs
(*plus un GÉ par district)
ME+9
Virginie, Harris probable
13 Grands Électeurs
VA+8
Nouveau-Mexique, Harris enclin
5 Grands Électeurs
NM+7
New Hampshire, Harris enclin
4 Grands Électeurs
NH+7
Nebraska-2, Harris enclin
1 Grand Électeur
NE2+6
Wisconsin, Pivot
10 Grands Électeurs
WI+2
Michigan, Pivot
15 Grands Électeurs
MI+1
Tipping point: PA
Pennsylvanie, Pivot
19 Grands Électeurs
PA+0.8
Nevada, Pivot
6 Grands Électeurs
NV+0.6
Caroline du Nord, Pivot
16 Grands Électeurs
NC+0.6
Georgie, Pivot
16 Grands Électeurs
GA+1.0
Arizona, Pivot
11 Grands Électeurs
AZ+1
Iowa, Pivot
6 Grands Électeurs
IA+2
Texas, Trump enclin
40 Grands Électeurs
TX+6
Ohio, Trump enclin
17 Grands Électeurs
OH+6
Maine-2, Trump enclin
1 Grand Électeur
ME2+8
Floride, Trump probable
30 Grands Électeurs
FL+9
Alaska, Trump probable
3 Grands Électeurs
AK+12
Missouri, Trump probable
10 Grands Électeurs
MO+12
Kansas, Trump probable
6 Grands Électeurs
KS+13
Caroline du Sud, Trump probable
9 Grands Électeurs
SC+13
Nebraska-1, Trump probable
1 Grand Électeur
NE1+16
Montana, Trump probable
4 Grands Électeurs
MT+18
Indiana, Trump solide
11 Grands Électeurs
IN+19
Louisiane, Trump solide
8 Grands Électeurs
LA+20
Nebraska, Trump probable
2 Grands Électeurs
(*plus un GÉ par district)
NE+20
Mississippi, Trump probable
6 Grands Électeurs
MS+21
Arkansas, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
AR+23
Tennessee, Trump solide
11 Grands Électeurs
TN+24
Alabama, Trump solide
9 Grands Électeurs
AL+25
Utah, Trump solide
6 Grands Électeurs
UT+27
Kentucky, Trump solide
8 Grands Électeurs
KY+28
Idaho, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
ID+29
Dakota du Nord, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
ND+30
Dakota du Sud, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
SD+31
Oklahoma, Trump solide
7 Grands Électeurs
OK+34
Virginie Occidentale, Trump solide
4 Grands Électeurs
WV+34
Wyoming, Trump solide
3 Grands Électeurs
WY+44
Nebraska-3, Trump solide
1 Grand Électeur
NE3+51
The Tipping Point
District of Columbia, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DC+84
Vermont, Safe Harris
3 Electoral Votes
VT+36
Massachusetts, Safe Harris
11 Electoral Votes
MA+31
Maryland, Safe Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MD+30
California, Safe Harris
54 Electoral Votes
CA+26
Hawaii, Safe Harris
4 Electoral Votes
HI+25
Maine-1, Likely Harris
1 Electoral Vote
ME1+25
Washington, Likely Harris
12 Electoral Votes
WA+17
New York, Likely Harris
28 Electoral Votes
NY+17
Rhode Island, Likely Harris
4 Electoral Votes
RI+16
Delaware, Likely Harris
3 Electoral Votes
DE+15
New Jersey, Likely Harris
14 Electoral Votes
NJ+13
Connecticut, Likely Harris
7 Electoral Votes
CT+13
Oregon, Likely Harris
8 Electoral Votes
OR+13
Colorado, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
CO+12
Illinois, Likely Harris
19 Electoral Votes
IL+10
Minnesota, Likely Harris
10 Electoral Votes
MN+9
Maine, Leaning Harris
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
ME+9
Virginia, Likely Harris
13 Electoral Votes
VA+8
New Mexico, Leaning Harris
5 Electoral Votes
NM+7
New Hampshire, Leaning Harris
4 Electoral Votes
NH+7
Nebraska-2, Leaning Harris
1 Electoral Vote
NE2+6
Wisconsin, Toss up
10 Electoral Votes
WI+2
Michigan, Toss up
15 Electoral Votes
MI+1
Tipping point: PA
Pennsylvania, Toss up
19 Electoral Votes
PA+0.8
Nevada, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
NV+0.6
North Carolina, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
NC+0.6
Georgia, Toss up
16 Electoral Votes
GA+1.0
Arizona, Toss up
11 Electoral Votes
AZ+1
Iowa, Toss up
6 Electoral Votes
IA+2
Texas, Leaning Trump
40 Electoral Votes
TX+6
Ohio, Leaning Trump
17 Electoral Votes
OH+6
Maine-2, Leaning Trump
1 Electoral Vote
ME2+8
Florida, Likely Trump
30 Electoral Votes
FL+9
Alaska, Likely Trump
3 Electoral Votes
AK+12
Missouri, Likely Trump
10 Electoral Votes
MO+12
Kansas, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
KS+13
South Carolina, Likely Trump
9 Electoral Votes
SC+13
Nebraska-1, Likely Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE1+16
Montana, Likely Trump
4 Electoral Votes
MT+18
Indiana, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
IN+19
Louisiana, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
LA+20
Nebraska, Likely Trump
2 Electoral Votes
(*Plus one EV per congressional district)
NE+20
Mississippi, Likely Trump
6 Electoral Votes
MS+21
Arkansas, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
AR+23
Tennessee, Safe Trump
11 Electoral Votes
TN+24
Alabama, Safe Trump
9 Electoral Votes
AL+25
Utah, Safe Trump
6 Electoral Votes
UT+27
Kentucky, Safe Trump
8 Electoral Votes
KY+28
Idaho, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
ID+29
North Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
ND+30
South Dakota, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
SD+31
Oklahoma, Safe Trump
7 Electoral Votes
OK+34
West Virginia, Safe Trump
4 Electoral Votes
WV+34
Wyoming, Safe Trump
3 Electoral Votes
WY+44
Nebraska-3, Safe Trump
1 Electoral Vote
NE3+51
The Tipping Point
November 4, 2024
Electoral College Projection
Trump 262 [201-315]
Harris 276 [223-337]
Seat projection
330
300
270
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
2024-07-01
2024-08-01
2024-09-01
2024-10-01
2024-11-01
Election 2024
Biden drops out
Trump
Harris
270 EV to win
November 4, 2024
2024-06-11
Trump 278
Harris 260
2024-06-11
2024-06-13
Trump 297
Harris 241
2024-06-13
2024-06-15
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-06-15
2024-06-17
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-17
2024-06-19
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-19
2024-06-21
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-21
2024-06-23
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-06-23
2024-06-25
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-25
2024-06-27
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-27
2024-06-29
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-06-29
2024-07-01
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-01
2024-07-03
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-03
2024-07-05
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-05
2024-07-07
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-07
2024-07-09
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-09
2024-07-11
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-11
2024-07-13
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-13
2024-07-15
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-15
2024-07-17
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-17
2024-07-19
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-19
2024-07-23
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-07-23
2024-07-25
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-25
2024-07-27
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-27
2024-07-29
Trump 302
Harris 236
2024-07-29
2024-07-31
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-07-31
2024-08-02
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-08-02
2024-08-04
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-08-04
2024-08-06
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-08-06
2024-08-08
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-08-08
2024-08-10
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-10
2024-08-12
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-12
2024-08-14
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-14
2024-08-16
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-08-16
2024-08-18
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-18
2024-08-20
Harris 281
Trump 257
2024-08-20
2024-08-22
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-22
2024-08-24
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-24
2024-08-26
Harris 298
Trump 240
2024-08-26
2024-08-28
Harris 282
Trump 256
2024-08-28
2024-08-30
Harris 277
Trump 261
2024-08-30
2024-09-01
Harris 277
Trump 261
2024-09-01
2024-09-03
Harris 293
Trump 245
2024-09-03
2024-09-05
Harris 271
Trump 267
2024-09-05
2024-09-09
Trump 270
Harris 268
2024-09-09
2024-09-11
Trump 270
Harris 268
2024-09-11
2024-09-13
Harris 287
Trump 251
2024-09-13
2024-09-15
Harris 287
Trump 251
2024-09-15
2024-09-17
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-09-17
2024-09-19
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-19
2024-09-23
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-23
2024-09-25
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-25
2024-09-27
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-27
2024-09-29
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-09-29
2024-10-03
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-10-03
2024-10-05
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-10-05
2024-10-08
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-08
2024-10-10
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-10
2024-10-14
Trump 312
Harris 226
2024-10-14
2024-10-17
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-17
2024-10-22
Harris 286
Trump 252
2024-10-22
2024-10-26
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-26
2024-10-29
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-29
2024-10-30
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-10-30
2024-11-01
Trump 287
Harris 251
2024-11-01
2024-11-02
Harris 270
Trump 268
2024-11-02
2024-11-03
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-11-03
2024-11-04
Harris 276
Trump 262
2024-11-04