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338Canada Projections vs Election Results in 2021 Federal Election
How did 338Canada do in the 2021 federal election? See for yourself on this page. You will find the overall breakdown of the final projection on
this page. (Only parties that won or were projected with at least 8% of the vote are listed.)
The model identified 310 of 338 correct winners (92%). Out of the 28 incorrect winners, 13 were within the model's margin of error (4%).
Only 15 were complete misses (4%).
Electoral districts below are listed by their official Election Canada district number. Use CTRL-F to find your electoral district
10001 Avalon (Newfoundland and Labrador)
10002 Bonavista–Burin–Trinity (Newfoundland and Labrador)
10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame (Newfoundland and Labrador)
10004 Labrador (Newfoundland and Labrador)
10005 Long Range Mountains (Newfoundland and Labrador)
10006 St. John`s East (Newfoundland and Labrador)
10007 St. John`s South–Mount Pearl (Newfoundland and Labrador)
11001 Cardigan (Prince Edward Island)
11002 Charlottetown (Prince Edward Island)
11003 Egmont (Prince Edward Island)
11004 Malpeque (Prince Edward Island)
12001 Cape Breton–Canso (Nova Scotia)
12002 Central Nova (Nova Scotia)
12003 Cumberland–Colchester (Nova Scotia)
12004 Dartmouth–Cole Harbour (Nova Scotia)
12005 Halifax (Nova Scotia)
12006 Halifax West (Nova Scotia)
12007 Kings–Hants (Nova Scotia)
12008 Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook (Nova Scotia)
12009 South Shore–St. Margarets (Nova Scotia)
12010 Sydney–Victoria (Nova Scotia)
12011 West Nova (Nova Scotia)
13001 Acadie–Bathurst (New Brunswick)
13002 Beauséjour (New Brunswick)
13003 Fredericton (New Brunswick)
13004 Fundy Royal (New Brunswick)
13005 Madawaska–Restigouche (New Brunswick)
13006 Miramichi–Grand Lake (New Brunswick)
13007 Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe (New Brunswick)
13008 New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick)
13009 Saint John–Rothesay (New Brunswick)
13010 Tobique–Mactaquac (New Brunswick)
24001 Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou (Québec)
24002 Abitibi–Témiscamingue (Québec)
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville (Québec)
24004 Alfred-Pellan (Québec)
24005 Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation (Québec)
24006 Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia (Québec)
24007 Beauce (Québec)
24008 Beauport–Limoilou (Québec)
24009 Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel (Québec)
24010 Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis (Québec)
24011 Beloeil–Chambly (Québec)
24012 Berthier–Maskinongé (Québec)
24013 Thérèse-De Blainville (Québec)
24014 Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères (Québec)
24015 Bourassa (Québec)
24016 Brome–Missisquoi (Québec)
24017 Brossard–Saint-Lambert (Québec)
24018 Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques (Québec)
24019 Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles (Québec)
24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix (Québec)
24021 Châteauguay–Lacolle (Québec)
24022 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord (Québec)
24023 Compton–Stanstead (Québec)
24024 Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle (Québec)
24025 Drummond (Québec)
24026 Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (Québec)
24027 Gatineau (Québec)
24028 Hochelaga (Québec)
24029 Honoré-Mercier (Québec)
24030 Hull–Aylmer (Québec)
24031 Joliette (Québec)
24032 Jonquière (Québec)
24033 La Pointe-de-l`Île (Québec)
24034 La Prairie (Québec)
24035 Lac-Saint-Jean (Québec)
24036 Lac-Saint-Louis (Québec)
24037 LaSalle–Émard–Verdun (Québec)
24038 Laurentides–Labelle (Québec)
24039 Laurier–Sainte-Marie (Québec)
24040 Laval–Les Îles (Québec)
24041 Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne (Québec)
24042 Lévis–Lotbinière (Québec)
24043 Longueuil–Saint-Hubert (Québec)
24044 Louis-Hébert (Québec)
24045 Louis-Saint-Laurent (Québec)
24046 Manicouagan (Québec)
24047 Mégantic–L`Érable (Québec)
24048 Mirabel (Québec)
24049 Montarville (Québec)
24050 Montcalm (Québec)
24051 Montmagny–L`Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup (Québec)
24052 Mount Royal (Québec)
24053 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount (Québec)
24054 Outremont (Québec)
24055 Papineau (Québec)
24056 Pierrefonds–Dollard (Québec)
24057 Pontiac (Québec)
24058 Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier (Québec)
24059 Québec (Québec)
24060 Repentigny (Québec)
24061 Richmond–Arthabaska (Québec)
24062 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (Québec)
24063 Rivière-du-Nord (Québec)
24064 Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie (Québec)
24065 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin (Québec)
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot (Québec)
24067 Saint-Jean (Québec)
24068 Saint-Laurent (Québec)
24069 Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel (Québec)
24070 Saint-Maurice–Champlain (Québec)
24071 Salaberry–Suroît (Québec)
24072 Shefford (Québec)
24073 Sherbrooke (Québec)
24074 Vaudreuil–Soulanges (Québec)
24075 Terrebonne (Québec)
24076 Trois-Rivières (Québec)
24077 Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs (Québec)
24078 Vimy (Québec)
35001 Ajax (Ontario)
35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing (Ontario)
35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill (Ontario)
35004 Barrie–Innisfil (Ontario)
35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte (Ontario)
35006 Bay of Quinte (Ontario)
35007 Beaches–East York (Ontario)
35008 Brampton Centre (Ontario)
35009 Brampton East (Ontario)
35010 Brampton North (Ontario)
35011 Brampton South (Ontario)
35012 Brampton West (Ontario)
35013 Brantford–Brant (Ontario)
35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound (Ontario)
35015 Burlington (Ontario)
35016 Cambridge (Ontario)
35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington (Ontario)
35018 Davenport (Ontario)
35019 Don Valley East (Ontario)
35020 Don Valley North (Ontario)
35021 Don Valley West (Ontario)
35022 Dufferin–Caledon (Ontario)
35023 Durham (Ontario)
35024 Eglinton–Lawrence (Ontario)
35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London (Ontario)
35026 Essex (Ontario)
35027 Etobicoke Centre (Ontario)
35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore (Ontario)
35029 Etobicoke North (Ontario)
35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook (Ontario)
35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell (Ontario)
35032 Guelph (Ontario)
35033 Haldimand–Norfolk (Ontario)
35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock (Ontario)
35035 Hamilton Centre (Ontario)
35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek (Ontario)
35037 Hamilton Mountain (Ontario)
35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas (Ontario)
35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington (Ontario)
35040 Huron–Bruce (Ontario)
35041 Kanata–Carleton (Ontario)
35042 Kenora (Ontario)
35043 King–Vaughan (Ontario)
Final 2021 Projection | 2021 Result | The Record | |
---|---|---|---|
Winner | Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval | ||
42.1% ± 7.3% | 45.1% | Within confidence interval | |
44.2% ± 7.3% | 42.9% | Within confidence interval |