338Canada Projections vs Election Results in 2021 Federal Election


338Canada Projections vs Election Results in 2021 Federal Election




How did 338Canada do in the 2021 federal election? See for yourself on this page. You will find the overall breakdown of the final projection on this page. (Only parties that won or were projected with at least 8% of the vote are listed.)

The model identified 310 of 338 correct winners (92%). Out of the 28 incorrect winners, 13 were within the model's margin of error (4%). Only 15 were complete misses (4%).

Electoral districts below are listed by their official Election Canada district number. Use CTRL-F to find your electoral district





10001 Avalon (Newfoundland and Labrador)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.7% ± 7.6% 50.0% Within confidence interval
30.0% ± 6.7% 34.4% Within confidence interval
21.7% ± 5.7% 13.9% Outside confidence interval




10002 Bonavista–Burin–Trinity (Newfoundland and Labrador)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.0% ± 8.0% 46.6% Within confidence interval
39.2% ± 7.8% 40.9% Within confidence interval
11.9% ± 4.5% 8.3% Within confidence interval




10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame (Newfoundland and Labrador)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
35.2% ± 7.5% 46.9% Outside confidence interval
47.6% ± 8.0% 46.0% Within confidence interval
17.2% ± 5.3% 7.1% Outside confidence interval




10004 Labrador (Newfoundland and Labrador)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.4% ± 10.1% 42.7% Within confidence interval
31.1% ± 9.6% 30.4% Within confidence interval
28.9% ± 9.4% 23.8% Within confidence interval




10005 Long Range Mountains (Newfoundland and Labrador)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.2% ± 7.5% 44.3% Within confidence interval
28.1% ± 6.5% 39.4% Outside confidence interval
25.0% ± 6.1% 11.9% Outside confidence interval




10006 St. John`s East (Newfoundland and Labrador)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.9% ± 7.5% 45.1% Within confidence interval
36.3% ± 7.2% 34.0% Within confidence interval
15.2% ± 4.9% 19.0% Within confidence interval




10007 St. John`s South–Mount Pearl (Newfoundland and Labrador)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.1% ± 7.4% 56.1% Outside confidence interval
33.0% ± 6.9% 23.3% Outside confidence interval
18.3% ± 5.1% 18.7% Within confidence interval




11001 Cardigan (Prince Edward Island)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.4% ± 9.0% 50.8% Within confidence interval
31.1% ± 8.2% 31.0% Within confidence interval
9.5% ± 5.0% 9.4% Within confidence interval




11002 Charlottetown (Prince Edward Island)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.2% ± 9.1% 46.7% Within confidence interval
22.7% ± 7.2% 31.1% Outside confidence interval
16.9% ± 6.2% 10.7% Within confidence interval
10.0% ± 5.7% 9.6% Within confidence interval




11003 Egmont (Prince Edward Island)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.3% ± 9.1% 46.2% Within confidence interval
38.1% ± 8.9% 31.1% Within confidence interval
6.4% ± 4.2% 9.1% Within confidence interval
9.0% ± 4.9% 8.6% Within confidence interval






11004 Malpeque (Prince Edward Island)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.7% ± 8.9% 41.6% Within confidence interval
32.9% ± 8.3% 33.2% Within confidence interval
9.4% ± 5.3% 14.3% Within confidence interval
10.4% ± 5.3% 8.0% Within confidence interval




12001 Cape Breton–Canso (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.2% ± 7.3% 46.5% Within confidence interval
35.3% ± 7.0% 35.1% Within confidence interval
17.1% ± 4.9% 14.3% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 4.2% 4.1% Outside confidence interval




12002 Central Nova (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.9% ± 7.2% 46.1% Within confidence interval
31.1% ± 6.6% 32.3% Within confidence interval
18.1% ± 5.0% 15.4% Within confidence interval
8.0% ± 4.0% 3.6% Outside confidence interval




12003 Cumberland–Colchester (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.1% ± 7.2% 46.1% Within confidence interval
36.0% ± 7.0% 34.3% Within confidence interval
11.5% ± 4.0% 12.2% Within confidence interval
7.7% ± 3.9% 4.1% Within confidence interval




12004 Dartmouth–Cole Harbour (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.7% ± 7.4% 52.8% Outside confidence interval
37.1% ± 7.0% 33.4% Within confidence interval
11.1% ± 4.2% 10.5% Within confidence interval




12005 Halifax (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.4% ± 7.0% 42.6% Within confidence interval
35.4% ± 6.8% 39.7% Within confidence interval
14.6% ± 4.5% 13.0% Within confidence interval




12006 Halifax West (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.6% ± 7.2% 48.5% Within confidence interval
26.2% ± 6.0% 24.2% Within confidence interval
19.6% ± 5.1% 22.0% Within confidence interval




12007 Kings–Hants (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.1% ± 7.1% 44.9% Within confidence interval
25.2% ± 5.9% 29.4% Within confidence interval
23.6% ± 5.7% 19.2% Within confidence interval




12008 Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
37.8% ± 6.9% 41.3% Within confidence interval
22.8% ± 5.5% 26.4% Within confidence interval
29.8% ± 6.3% 26.3% Within confidence interval




12009 South Shore–St. Margarets (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
35.0% ± 6.7% 40.9% Within confidence interval
36.7% ± 6.8% 37.1% Within confidence interval
25.0% ± 5.8% 19.1% Outside confidence interval






12010 Sydney–Victoria (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
32.0% ± 6.9% 39.2% Outside confidence interval
35.3% ± 7.1% 36.2% Within confidence interval
25.0% ± 6.1% 19.8% Within confidence interval




12011 West Nova (Nova Scotia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.8% ± 7.1% 50.3% Outside confidence interval
36.3% ± 7.0% 31.3% Within confidence interval
17.9% ± 4.9% 12.8% Outside confidence interval




13001 Acadie–Bathurst (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
52.4% ± 7.2% 64.8% Outside confidence interval
21.3% ± 5.4% 13.8% Outside confidence interval
19.8% ± 5.2% 11.4% Outside confidence interval




13002 Beauséjour (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.4% ± 7.3% 55.5% Outside confidence interval
20.3% ± 5.2% 19.4% Within confidence interval
10.7% ± 4.2% 11.1% Within confidence interval
9.2% ± 4.3% 7.6% Within confidence interval
11.4% ± 4.3% 5.7% Outside confidence interval




13003 Fredericton (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
33.2% ± 6.7% 37.0% Within confidence interval
33.5% ± 6.6% 35.9% Within confidence interval
22.2% ± 6.0% 12.9% Outside confidence interval
10.0% ± 4.1% 12.6% Within confidence interval




13004 Fundy Royal (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.2% ± 7.5% 48.2% Within confidence interval
24.8% ± 5.9% 25.0% Within confidence interval
13.6% ± 4.5% 14.1% Within confidence interval
10.2% ± 4.7% 7.8% Within confidence interval




13005 Madawaska–Restigouche (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.4% ± 8.0% 55.2% Within confidence interval
30.3% ± 7.1% 25.7% Within confidence interval
8.8% ± 4.1% 6.1% Within confidence interval




13006 Miramichi–Grand Lake (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
35.5% ± 7.4% 43.8% Outside confidence interval
38.7% ± 7.6% 39.3% Within confidence interval
11.8% ± 4.5% 7.1% Outside confidence interval
10.7% ± 5.2% 5.7% Within confidence interval




13007 Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.9% ± 7.1% 48.4% Within confidence interval
25.0% ± 5.8% 23.4% Within confidence interval
16.9% ± 4.6% 17.0% Within confidence interval
9.3% ± 4.4% 6.3% Within confidence interval




13008 New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
49.7% ± 7.8% 49.9% Within confidence interval
24.8% ± 6.3% 24.0% Within confidence interval
11.2% ± 4.2% 13.3% Within confidence interval
10.3% ± 4.9% 8.4% Within confidence interval






13009 Saint John–Rothesay (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
34.0% ± 6.8% 46.4% Outside confidence interval
36.4% ± 7.0% 32.9% Within confidence interval
17.2% ± 4.8% 12.9% Within confidence interval
9.8% ± 4.6% 5.3% Within confidence interval




13010 Tobique–Mactaquac (New Brunswick)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.1% ± 7.8% 51.0% Within confidence interval
24.2% ± 6.1% 23.9% Within confidence interval
10.6% ± 4.5% 10.6% Within confidence interval
10.0% ± 4.8% 8.5% Within confidence interval




24001 Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.0% ± 7.8% 38.0% Within confidence interval
24.8% ± 6.3% 25.9% Within confidence interval
17.2% ± 5.2% 15.9% Within confidence interval
15.3% ± 5.1% 11.7% Within confidence interval




24002 Abitibi–Témiscamingue (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.3% ± 7.3% 50.6% Outside confidence interval
23.9% ± 5.7% 24.1% Within confidence interval
15.1% ± 4.7% 11.7% Within confidence interval
11.4% ± 3.9% 6.1% Outside confidence interval




24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.7% ± 7.2% 52.4% Within confidence interval
20.1% ± 5.5% 22.0% Within confidence interval
14.8% ± 4.5% 11.6% Within confidence interval
8.3% ± 3.4% 8.4% Within confidence interval




24004 Alfred-Pellan (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.2% ± 7.2% 47.8% Within confidence interval
26.4% ± 6.1% 26.1% Within confidence interval
13.2% ± 4.2% 13.6% Within confidence interval
10.2% ± 4.0% 7.7% Within confidence interval




24005 Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.4% ± 7.1% 38.2% Within confidence interval
33.8% ± 7.4% 35.2% Within confidence interval
14.2% ± 4.6% 12.9% Within confidence interval
9.8% ± 4.0% 6.7% Within confidence interval




24006 Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.9% ± 8.2% 59.8% Outside confidence interval
33.7% ± 7.6% 21.4% Outside confidence interval
9.4% ± 4.3% 8.8% Within confidence interval




24007 Beauce (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.7% ± 7.1% 48.3% Outside confidence interval
28.9% ± 6.5% 18.2% Outside confidence interval
15.8% ± 5.2% 15.1% Within confidence interval
10.0% ± 4.0% 12.3% Within confidence interval




24008 Beauport–Limoilou (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
28.1% ± 6.3% 31.1% Within confidence interval
29.2% ± 6.3% 29.0% Within confidence interval
27.7% ± 6.1% 25.4% Within confidence interval
10.6% ± 4.2% 10.4% Within confidence interval






24009 Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.7% ± 8.0% 54.8% Within confidence interval
16.8% ± 4.8% 16.9% Within confidence interval
17.8% ± 5.0% 16.8% Within confidence interval




24010 Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
54.2% ± 7.1% 51.0% Within confidence interval
21.7% ± 5.4% 23.2% Within confidence interval
14.5% ± 4.4% 15.9% Within confidence interval




24011 Beloeil–Chambly (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.9% ± 7.7% 53.1% Within confidence interval
22.1% ± 5.3% 23.7% Within confidence interval
7.3% ± 3.1% 8.6% Within confidence interval
16.1% ± 4.4% 8.5% Outside confidence interval




24012 Berthier–Maskinongé (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
37.0% ± 7.0% 35.2% Within confidence interval
26.3% ± 5.9% 33.4% Outside confidence interval
14.8% ± 4.5% 15.3% Within confidence interval
14.1% ± 4.4% 10.9% Within confidence interval




24013 Thérèse-De Blainville (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.6% ± 7.7% 41.2% Within confidence interval
37.5% ± 7.1% 35.2% Within confidence interval
10.7% ± 4.2% 11.0% Within confidence interval




24014 Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.6% ± 7.4% 54.3% Outside confidence interval
29.1% ± 6.3% 25.8% Within confidence interval
10.1% ± 3.9% 8.8% Within confidence interval
9.2% ± 3.7% 7.7% Within confidence interval




24015 Bourassa (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
56.8% ± 7.5% 60.1% Within confidence interval
20.7% ± 5.9% 18.9% Within confidence interval
8.8% ± 3.8% 8.0% Within confidence interval




24016 Brome–Missisquoi (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.3% ± 6.7% 34.9% Within confidence interval
31.7% ± 6.5% 34.6% Within confidence interval
14.1% ± 4.4% 16.2% Within confidence interval
10.0% ± 3.9% 6.2% Within confidence interval




24017 Brossard–Saint-Lambert (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.1% ± 7.2% 54.0% Within confidence interval
18.2% ± 5.2% 20.1% Within confidence interval
12.6% ± 4.1% 11.9% Within confidence interval
12.9% ± 4.2% 10.4% Within confidence interval




24018 Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
37.8% ± 7.3% 49.1% Outside confidence interval
25.0% ± 6.0% 24.8% Within confidence interval
11.7% ± 4.1% 13.2% Within confidence interval
20.4% ± 5.4% 6.3% Outside confidence interval






24019 Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.8% ± 6.8% 44.5% Within confidence interval
25.5% ± 6.3% 25.0% Within confidence interval
17.9% ± 4.7% 19.8% Within confidence interval
8.9% ± 3.6% 6.0% Within confidence interval




24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d`Orléans-Charlevoix (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.6% ± 7.1% 38.5% Within confidence interval
30.5% ± 6.4% 31.7% Within confidence interval
18.5% ± 4.9% 20.6% Within confidence interval




24021 Châteauguay–Lacolle (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
33.7% ± 7.4% 37.4% Within confidence interval
35.8% ± 7.0% 36.1% Within confidence interval
13.6% ± 4.4% 11.3% Within confidence interval
7.2% ± 3.2% 8.3% Within confidence interval




24022 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
35.9% ± 7.2% 41.0% Within confidence interval
36.6% ± 7.3% 33.4% Within confidence interval
14.1% ± 4.7% 18.4% Within confidence interval




24023 Compton–Stanstead (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
33.7% ± 6.6% 36.7% Within confidence interval
29.5% ± 6.8% 30.6% Within confidence interval
15.9% ± 4.7% 17.4% Within confidence interval
11.9% ± 3.9% 7.4% Outside confidence interval




24024 Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.4% ± 7.3% 52.4% Within confidence interval
15.8% ± 5.0% 15.7% Within confidence interval
15.4% ± 4.7% 13.0% Within confidence interval
11.9% ± 3.9% 11.9% Within confidence interval




24025 Drummond (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.3% ± 7.7% 46.6% Within confidence interval
18.3% ± 4.9% 18.8% Within confidence interval
20.6% ± 5.2% 17.9% Within confidence interval
18.8% ± 5.0% 11.2% Outside confidence interval




24026 Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.1% ± 7.8% 46.4% Within confidence interval
38.1% ± 7.8% 39.3% Within confidence interval
9.9% ± 4.3% 8.1% Within confidence interval




24027 Gatineau (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.5% ± 7.1% 49.9% Within confidence interval
19.9% ± 5.4% 23.3% Within confidence interval
11.4% ± 3.7% 10.9% Within confidence interval
14.0% ± 4.3% 8.6% Outside confidence interval




24028 Hochelaga (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
32.6% ± 6.6% 38.0% Within confidence interval
31.0% ± 6.5% 31.5% Within confidence interval
21.7% ± 5.3% 20.6% Within confidence interval






24029 Honoré-Mercier (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
58.4% ± 7.2% 60.0% Within confidence interval
18.4% ± 5.4% 16.3% Within confidence interval
8.3% ± 3.5% 10.5% Within confidence interval
8.8% ± 3.7% 7.3% Within confidence interval




24030 Hull–Aylmer (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.2% ± 7.2% 52.5% Within confidence interval
13.5% ± 4.5% 16.1% Within confidence interval
17.6% ± 4.6% 12.7% Outside confidence interval
10.1% ± 3.9% 10.8% Within confidence interval




24031 Joliette (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
53.3% ± 8.2% 55.0% Within confidence interval
21.9% ± 5.7% 22.6% Within confidence interval
10.6% ± 4.3% 9.5% Within confidence interval




24032 Jonquière (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.2% ± 7.2% 41.7% Within confidence interval
24.9% ± 5.9% 29.2% Within confidence interval
17.7% ± 4.9% 20.9% Within confidence interval
14.4% ± 4.6% 5.8% Outside confidence interval




24033 La Pointe-de-l`Île (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.9% ± 8.0% 46.5% Within confidence interval
29.2% ± 6.5% 32.1% Within confidence interval
11.6% ± 4.0% 10.0% Within confidence interval
9.1% ± 3.8% 6.7% Within confidence interval




24034 La Prairie (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.5% ± 7.1% 43.6% Within confidence interval
34.9% ± 6.8% 34.6% Within confidence interval
11.6% ± 3.8% 9.9% Within confidence interval




24035 Lac-Saint-Jean (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.9% ± 7.9% 50.7% Within confidence interval
25.3% ± 5.9% 25.6% Within confidence interval
23.4% ± 5.7% 18.6% Within confidence interval




24036 Lac-Saint-Louis (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
56.0% ± 7.2% 56.1% Within confidence interval
15.6% ± 4.6% 19.0% Within confidence interval
14.0% ± 4.3% 13.3% Within confidence interval




24037 LaSalle–Émard–Verdun (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.5% ± 6.9% 42.7% Within confidence interval
22.3% ± 5.9% 22.4% Within confidence interval
20.8% ± 5.2% 19.3% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 3.5% 7.4% Within confidence interval




24038 Laurentides–Labelle (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.4% ± 7.2% 50.0% Within confidence interval
29.4% ± 6.3% 24.9% Within confidence interval
9.5% ± 3.8% 10.6% Within confidence interval
8.0% ± 3.3% 6.1% Within confidence interval






24039 Laurier–Sainte-Marie (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
37.7% ± 6.8% 37.9% Within confidence interval
30.4% ± 6.2% 32.9% Within confidence interval
20.1% ± 5.5% 20.4% Within confidence interval




24040 Laval–Les Îles (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.4% ± 7.0% 48.8% Within confidence interval
19.2% ± 5.1% 19.2% Within confidence interval
17.9% ± 4.7% 17.7% Within confidence interval
11.3% ± 3.8% 7.7% Within confidence interval




24041 Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.6% ± 7.0% 40.3% Within confidence interval
33.6% ± 7.3% 35.4% Within confidence interval
11.3% ± 3.9% 10.3% Within confidence interval
8.6% ± 3.6% 8.4% Within confidence interval




24042 Lévis–Lotbinière (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.0% ± 6.9% 51.6% Within confidence interval
23.6% ± 5.6% 21.7% Within confidence interval
13.7% ± 4.2% 14.6% Within confidence interval
7.8% ± 3.2% 7.1% Within confidence interval




24043 Longueuil–Saint-Hubert (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.2% ± 7.6% 41.2% Within confidence interval
35.3% ± 7.0% 38.3% Within confidence interval
9.0% ± 3.7% 8.0% Within confidence interval




24044 Louis-Hébert (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.5% ± 6.6% 38.4% Within confidence interval
26.0% ± 5.8% 27.2% Within confidence interval
20.9% ± 5.0% 24.0% Within confidence interval
10.4% ± 3.9% 7.2% Within confidence interval




24045 Louis-Saint-Laurent (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.3% ± 7.0% 51.6% Within confidence interval
21.2% ± 5.6% 20.4% Within confidence interval
17.1% ± 4.5% 17.5% Within confidence interval
7.7% ± 3.2% 5.3% Within confidence interval




24046 Manicouagan (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
49.8% ± 7.8% 52.7% Within confidence interval
24.2% ± 6.1% 21.8% Within confidence interval
20.1% ± 5.5% 18.7% Within confidence interval




24047 Mégantic–L`Érable (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.7% ± 7.6% 56.3% Within confidence interval
24.4% ± 6.5% 20.1% Within confidence interval
12.8% ± 4.3% 13.6% Within confidence interval




24048 Mirabel (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.5% ± 7.3% 46.4% Within confidence interval
23.7% ± 5.7% 23.5% Within confidence interval
10.5% ± 4.1% 13.4% Within confidence interval
9.8% ± 3.9% 8.4% Within confidence interval






24049 Montarville (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.2% ± 7.9% 45.3% Within confidence interval
35.2% ± 7.0% 34.8% Within confidence interval
9.1% ± 3.7% 9.5% Within confidence interval
10.1% ± 4.0% 8.4% Within confidence interval




24050 Montcalm (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
52.9% ± 7.5% 53.2% Within confidence interval
19.8% ± 5.3% 19.8% Within confidence interval
10.5% ± 4.2% 11.7% Within confidence interval
8.0% ± 3.5% 6.3% Within confidence interval




24051 Montmagny–L`Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.9% ± 7.5% 50.5% Within confidence interval
31.1% ± 7.2% 26.2% Within confidence interval
14.6% ± 4.7% 17.5% Within confidence interval
8.5% ± 3.7% 3.3% Outside confidence interval




24052 Mount Royal (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.5% ± 7.4% 57.7% Within confidence interval
26.5% ± 6.0% 24.5% Within confidence interval
10.1% ± 4.0% 8.4% Within confidence interval




24053 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.7% ± 7.3% 53.8% Within confidence interval
18.3% ± 4.8% 19.2% Within confidence interval
12.9% ± 4.2% 14.0% Within confidence interval
8.1% ± 3.8% 4.0% Outside confidence interval




24054 Outremont (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.2% ± 7.2% 45.2% Within confidence interval
22.3% ± 5.5% 26.1% Within confidence interval
12.6% ± 4.4% 15.1% Within confidence interval
7.4% ± 3.3% 7.8% Within confidence interval
9.3% ± 4.3% 3.3% Outside confidence interval




24055 Papineau (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.6% ± 7.3% 49.5% Within confidence interval
21.7% ± 5.3% 22.6% Within confidence interval
14.8% ± 5.0% 15.1% Within confidence interval




24056 Pierrefonds–Dollard (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
52.1% ± 7.1% 56.0% Within confidence interval
21.6% ± 5.2% 20.8% Within confidence interval
14.0% ± 4.3% 11.5% Within confidence interval
7.6% ± 3.5% 7.9% Within confidence interval




24057 Pontiac (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.5% ± 6.9% 43.4% Within confidence interval
19.4% ± 4.8% 20.6% Within confidence interval
14.9% ± 4.9% 16.8% Within confidence interval
12.6% ± 4.0% 11.0% Within confidence interval




24058 Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.8% ± 6.9% 51.4% Within confidence interval
22.9% ± 5.6% 23.8% Within confidence interval
17.0% ± 4.5% 15.4% Within confidence interval






24059 Québec (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
32.0% ± 6.5% 35.4% Within confidence interval
30.3% ± 6.9% 29.0% Within confidence interval
16.9% ± 4.6% 18.0% Within confidence interval
11.2% ± 3.8% 13.0% Within confidence interval




24060 Repentigny (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.5% ± 7.3% 51.7% Within confidence interval
27.7% ± 6.2% 27.6% Within confidence interval
10.1% ± 3.9% 8.9% Within confidence interval
9.6% ± 3.8% 7.5% Within confidence interval




24061 Richmond–Arthabaska (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.8% ± 7.3% 49.7% Within confidence interval
26.6% ± 6.5% 24.9% Within confidence interval
13.9% ± 4.4% 15.0% Within confidence interval




24062 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.4% ± 7.0% 40.5% Within confidence interval
30.4% ± 6.4% 35.2% Within confidence interval
13.8% ± 4.4% 10.3% Within confidence interval
9.6% ± 3.9% 7.3% Within confidence interval




24063 Rivière-du-Nord (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.7% ± 7.9% 52.2% Within confidence interval
23.1% ± 5.6% 22.2% Within confidence interval
14.9% ± 4.6% 12.0% Within confidence interval
9.2% ± 3.8% 6.9% Within confidence interval




24064 Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.1% ± 7.0% 48.6% Within confidence interval
26.1% ± 5.8% 23.0% Within confidence interval
22.5% ± 5.5% 21.3% Within confidence interval




24065 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.6% ± 7.2% 44.0% Within confidence interval
29.6% ± 6.8% 30.9% Within confidence interval
11.7% ± 3.9% 11.8% Within confidence interval
11.0% ± 3.8% 8.6% Within confidence interval




24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.8% ± 7.1% 47.5% Outside confidence interval
20.9% ± 5.1% 22.7% Within confidence interval
17.7% ± 4.7% 13.5% Within confidence interval
16.4% ± 4.5% 11.6% Outside confidence interval




24067 Saint-Jean (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.5% ± 7.8% 46.0% Within confidence interval
31.1% ± 6.5% 28.1% Within confidence interval
13.0% ± 4.2% 12.7% Within confidence interval
8.2% ± 3.4% 7.3% Within confidence interval




24068 Saint-Laurent (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
59.9% ± 7.3% 59.1% Within confidence interval
16.3% ± 4.8% 18.5% Within confidence interval
12.1% ± 4.3% 10.9% Within confidence interval
6.7% ± 3.5% 8.0% Within confidence interval






24069 Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
60.7% ± 7.2% 69.2% Outside confidence interval
19.0% ± 5.1% 10.4% Outside confidence interval
9.1% ± 4.3% 8.3% Within confidence interval
7.2% ± 3.3% 8.3% Within confidence interval




24070 Saint-Maurice–Champlain (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.4% ± 6.9% 42.4% Within confidence interval
32.2% ± 6.6% 30.0% Within confidence interval
17.8% ± 4.7% 18.0% Within confidence interval




24071 Salaberry–Suroît (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.0% ± 8.0% 47.7% Within confidence interval
29.6% ± 6.5% 27.2% Within confidence interval
10.2% ± 4.1% 12.3% Within confidence interval
9.4% ± 3.8% 7.5% Within confidence interval




24072 Shefford (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
34.8% ± 6.8% 42.0% Outside confidence interval
35.9% ± 6.7% 33.4% Within confidence interval
13.3% ± 4.2% 12.1% Within confidence interval
7.6% ± 3.2% 5.3% Within confidence interval




24073 Sherbrooke (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
27.0% ± 5.8% 37.5% Outside confidence interval
28.7% ± 6.6% 29.0% Within confidence interval
22.0% ± 5.2% 13.9% Outside confidence interval
14.4% ± 4.4% 12.9% Within confidence interval




24074 Vaudreuil–Soulanges (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.6% ± 6.9% 46.4% Within confidence interval
22.6% ± 5.3% 22.1% Within confidence interval
13.6% ± 4.1% 16.4% Within confidence interval
13.1% ± 4.0% 10.5% Within confidence interval




24075 Terrebonne (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.1% ± 8.0% 41.1% Within confidence interval
27.8% ± 6.3% 29.6% Within confidence interval
8.2% ± 3.5% 10.5% Within confidence interval
8.1% ± 3.4% 6.6% Within confidence interval




24076 Trois-Rivières (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
28.7% ± 6.2% 29.5% Within confidence interval
28.9% ± 6.0% 29.4% Within confidence interval
26.7% ± 5.8% 28.6% Within confidence interval
10.0% ± 3.8% 8.0% Within confidence interval




24077 Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
49.1% ± 7.4% 50.5% Within confidence interval
17.7% ± 4.9% 18.8% Within confidence interval
10.3% ± 4.2% 12.5% Within confidence interval
12.2% ± 4.6% 12.4% Within confidence interval




24078 Vimy (Québec)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.5% ± 7.2% 49.8% Within confidence interval
25.7% ± 6.1% 23.2% Within confidence interval
12.6% ± 4.1% 13.4% Within confidence interval
11.4% ± 3.9% 9.3% Within confidence interval






35001 Ajax (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
56.7% ± 7.1% 56.9% Within confidence interval
26.7% ± 6.0% 26.6% Within confidence interval
14.4% ± 4.5% 14.0% Within confidence interval




35002 Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.9% ± 7.5% 39.7% Outside confidence interval
21.4% ± 5.6% 28.2% Outside confidence interval
19.4% ± 5.3% 22.2% Within confidence interval




35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.1% ± 7.4% 45.7% Within confidence interval
42.4% ± 7.3% 42.5% Within confidence interval
8.5% ± 3.6% 7.9% Within confidence interval




35004 Barrie–Innisfil (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.3% ± 7.1% 47.7% Within confidence interval
27.5% ± 6.0% 28.9% Within confidence interval
20.5% ± 5.2% 15.8% Within confidence interval
7.7% ± 3.8% 7.7% Within confidence interval




35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.3% ± 7.0% 45.1% Within confidence interval
35.4% ± 6.7% 30.9% Within confidence interval
17.9% ± 4.8% 17.1% Within confidence interval




35006 Bay of Quinte (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
34.3% ± 6.4% 41.4% Outside confidence interval
35.6% ± 6.5% 36.5% Within confidence interval
18.8% ± 4.7% 14.9% Within confidence interval
7.8% ± 3.7% 4.9% Within confidence interval




35007 Beaches–East York (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.0% ± 7.0% 56.6% Within confidence interval
24.7% ± 5.6% 22.5% Within confidence interval
13.5% ± 4.2% 14.3% Within confidence interval




35008 Brampton Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.0% ± 7.2% 47.7% Within confidence interval
27.6% ± 6.1% 32.5% Within confidence interval
24.2% ± 5.7% 17.4% Outside confidence interval




35009 Brampton East (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.4% ± 7.1% 53.4% Outside confidence interval
23.6% ± 5.6% 28.1% Within confidence interval
29.6% ± 6.3% 15.8% Outside confidence interval




35010 Brampton North (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.5% ± 7.1% 53.9% Within confidence interval
28.5% ± 6.1% 31.1% Within confidence interval
20.0% ± 5.0% 15.0% Outside confidence interval






35011 Brampton South (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.8% ± 7.2% 51.0% Within confidence interval
28.4% ± 6.2% 30.4% Within confidence interval
19.7% ± 5.0% 14.2% Outside confidence interval




35012 Brampton West (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.0% ± 7.3% 55.3% Within confidence interval
23.3% ± 5.7% 28.3% Within confidence interval
20.0% ± 5.2% 13.1% Outside confidence interval




35013 Brantford–Brant (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.2% ± 6.4% 40.4% Within confidence interval
26.5% ± 5.5% 28.4% Within confidence interval
23.1% ± 5.1% 19.6% Within confidence interval
7.5% ± 3.5% 8.5% Within confidence interval




35014 Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.2% ± 7.0% 49.3% Within confidence interval
26.6% ± 5.8% 25.1% Within confidence interval
13.6% ± 4.3% 13.5% Within confidence interval
9.4% ± 4.3% 8.1% Within confidence interval




35015 Burlington (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.0% ± 6.9% 45.7% Within confidence interval
33.2% ± 6.3% 37.3% Within confidence interval
11.8% ± 3.7% 10.8% Within confidence interval




35016 Cambridge (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.0% ± 6.5% 38.0% Within confidence interval
27.9% ± 5.9% 34.4% Outside confidence interval
22.8% ± 5.3% 17.0% Outside confidence interval
9.9% ± 4.5% 7.2% Within confidence interval




35017 Chatham-Kent–Leamington (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.7% ± 6.9% 40.8% Within confidence interval
27.4% ± 5.9% 28.6% Within confidence interval
18.0% ± 4.7% 14.6% Within confidence interval
7.6% ± 3.7% 14.4% Outside confidence interval




35018 Davenport (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.0% ± 7.3% 42.1% Within confidence interval
36.8% ± 6.9% 41.8% Within confidence interval
9.2% ± 3.8% 10.1% Within confidence interval




35019 Don Valley East (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
63.2% ± 7.1% 59.5% Within confidence interval
19.6% ± 5.3% 22.3% Within confidence interval
12.1% ± 4.2% 12.9% Within confidence interval




35020 Don Valley North (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.0% ± 7.4% 54.4% Within confidence interval
34.9% ± 6.9% 29.7% Within confidence interval
10.7% ± 4.2% 10.7% Within confidence interval






35021 Don Valley West (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
52.3% ± 7.3% 52.7% Within confidence interval
30.9% ± 6.4% 35.5% Within confidence interval
8.3% ± 3.5% 8.1% Within confidence interval




35022 Dufferin–Caledon (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.1% ± 6.8% 46.0% Within confidence interval
29.7% ± 6.1% 32.7% Within confidence interval
13.5% ± 4.2% 10.1% Within confidence interval
8.3% ± 3.9% 6.7% Within confidence interval




35023 Durham (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.0% ± 6.8% 46.5% Within confidence interval
27.2% ± 5.7% 29.9% Within confidence interval
22.0% ± 5.1% 17.5% Within confidence interval
7.6% ± 3.6% 5.5% Within confidence interval




35024 Eglinton–Lawrence (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
49.8% ± 7.2% 48.6% Within confidence interval
32.8% ± 6.5% 36.4% Within confidence interval
9.9% ± 3.8% 9.2% Within confidence interval




35025 Elgin–Middlesex–London (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.1% ± 6.7% 49.8% Outside confidence interval
29.7% ± 6.0% 19.6% Outside confidence interval
18.3% ± 4.7% 16.0% Within confidence interval
7.6% ± 3.7% 11.8% Outside confidence interval




35026 Essex (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.4% ± 6.7% 41.1% Within confidence interval
36.7% ± 6.6% 31.9% Within confidence interval
15.7% ± 4.5% 15.4% Within confidence interval
6.5% ± 3.2% 9.9% Outside confidence interval




35027 Etobicoke Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.6% ± 7.3% 47.9% Within confidence interval
34.7% ± 6.7% 35.1% Within confidence interval
9.3% ± 3.7% 10.1% Within confidence interval




35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.7% ± 7.1% 47.4% Within confidence interval
28.0% ± 5.9% 31.9% Within confidence interval
13.7% ± 4.2% 13.7% Within confidence interval




35029 Etobicoke North (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
63.1% ± 7.0% 59.5% Within confidence interval
16.6% ± 4.6% 24.9% Outside confidence interval
10.8% ± 4.2% 10.4% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 4.0% 4.3% Outside confidence interval




35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.6% ± 6.7% 40.1% Within confidence interval
34.7% ± 6.6% 35.7% Within confidence interval
17.7% ± 4.7% 15.7% Within confidence interval






35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.1% ± 6.9% 46.0% Within confidence interval
35.8% ± 6.6% 33.4% Within confidence interval
11.9% ± 3.8% 10.7% Within confidence interval




35032 Guelph (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.2% ± 6.6% 42.1% Within confidence interval
19.3% ± 4.6% 24.1% Outside confidence interval
14.4% ± 4.2% 21.1% Outside confidence interval
17.4% ± 4.8% 7.5% Outside confidence interval




35033 Haldimand–Norfolk (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.9% ± 7.0% 47.3% Within confidence interval
23.2% ± 5.4% 27.5% Within confidence interval
19.2% ± 4.9% 13.3% Outside confidence interval
8.5% ± 4.0% 10.5% Within confidence interval




35034 Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.6% ± 7.0% 52.3% Within confidence interval
23.0% ± 5.4% 23.1% Within confidence interval
17.3% ± 4.5% 14.4% Within confidence interval




35035 Hamilton Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
49.7% ± 7.4% 48.4% Within confidence interval
25.3% ± 6.0% 26.5% Within confidence interval
13.0% ± 4.3% 15.2% Within confidence interval




35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
33.8% ± 6.5% 37.0% Within confidence interval
24.9% ± 5.6% 28.1% Within confidence interval
30.1% ± 6.2% 25.4% Within confidence interval
7.9% ± 3.8% 7.4% Within confidence interval




35037 Hamilton Mountain (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
30.9% ± 6.3% 34.1% Within confidence interval
35.8% ± 6.7% 32.4% Within confidence interval
23.3% ± 5.5% 24.4% Within confidence interval




35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.2% ± 6.7% 43.9% Within confidence interval
25.6% ± 5.5% 29.3% Within confidence interval
20.7% ± 4.9% 19.7% Within confidence interval




35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
35.7% ± 6.9% 45.1% Outside confidence interval
37.4% ± 7.0% 34.9% Within confidence interval
15.7% ± 4.8% 11.0% Within confidence interval




35040 Huron–Bruce (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.4% ± 7.1% 51.1% Within confidence interval
29.7% ± 6.2% 26.1% Within confidence interval
14.7% ± 4.4% 14.8% Within confidence interval






35041 Kanata–Carleton (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.7% ± 6.7% 41.8% Within confidence interval
34.3% ± 6.4% 38.6% Within confidence interval
16.7% ± 4.3% 14.0% Within confidence interval




35042 Kenora (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
31.7% ± 7.3% 42.6% Outside confidence interval
29.9% ± 7.1% 29.9% Within confidence interval
30.0% ± 7.1% 19.9% Outside confidence interval




35043 King–Vaughan (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
42.1% ± 7.3% 45.1% Within confidence interval
44.2% ± 7.3% 42.9% Within confidence interval




35044 Kingston and the Islands (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.2% ± 6.7% 41.3% Within confidence interval
25.9% ± 5.6% 29.3% Within confidence interval
18.6% ± 4.6% 23.5% Outside confidence interval
9.0% ± 4.0% 3.4% Outside confidence interval




35045 Kitchener Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
24.3% ± 5.8% 34.9% Outside confidence interval
26.5% ± 5.7% 24.4% Within confidence interval
17.6% ± 4.6% 17.4% Within confidence interval
24.9% ± 5.5% 16.2% Outside confidence interval




35046 Kitchener–Conestoga (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
37.3% ± 7.0% 39.2% Within confidence interval
38.4% ± 7.0% 38.2% Within confidence interval
11.9% ± 4.0% 11.7% Within confidence interval




35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.4% ± 6.8% 37.5% Within confidence interval
32.4% ± 6.5% 35.5% Within confidence interval
15.5% ± 4.7% 16.3% Within confidence interval
7.8% ± 3.8% 6.8% Within confidence interval




35048 Lambton–Kent–Middlesex (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.4% ± 7.0% 48.6% Within confidence interval
21.9% ± 5.2% 20.7% Within confidence interval
18.9% ± 4.8% 18.2% Within confidence interval
10.5% ± 4.6% 10.8% Within confidence interval




35049 Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.4% ± 6.9% 48.8% Within confidence interval
22.3% ± 5.3% 26.4% Within confidence interval
16.6% ± 4.5% 15.6% Within confidence interval




35050 Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.5% ± 7.1% 50.6% Within confidence interval
23.9% ± 5.6% 25.3% Within confidence interval
16.7% ± 4.5% 14.8% Within confidence interval






35051 London–Fanshawe (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.9% ± 7.0% 43.4% Within confidence interval
21.6% ± 5.2% 24.3% Within confidence interval
22.3% ± 5.3% 23.1% Within confidence interval
7.2% ± 3.5% 9.2% Within confidence interval




35052 London North Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.2% ± 6.6% 39.0% Within confidence interval
22.3% ± 5.1% 27.1% Within confidence interval
26.0% ± 5.6% 26.7% Within confidence interval
9.0% ± 4.1% 5.0% Within confidence interval




35053 London West (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
37.9% ± 6.4% 36.8% Within confidence interval
30.2% ± 5.9% 32.5% Within confidence interval
23.9% ± 5.2% 24.4% Within confidence interval




35054 Markham–Stouffville (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.7% ± 7.2% 51.0% Within confidence interval
39.1% ± 7.0% 35.5% Within confidence interval
9.5% ± 3.8% 8.4% Within confidence interval




35055 Markham–Thornhill (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.4% ± 7.5% 61.5% Outside confidence interval
34.2% ± 7.0% 26.3% Outside confidence interval
8.5% ± 3.7% 8.4% Within confidence interval




35056 Markham–Unionville (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
38.3% ± 7.3% 48.5% Outside confidence interval
50.7% ± 7.6% 42.1% Outside confidence interval
8.2% ± 3.6% 6.6% Within confidence interval




35057 Milton (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.7% ± 7.6% 51.9% Within confidence interval
36.0% ± 7.1% 32.7% Within confidence interval
7.5% ± 3.4% 8.8% Within confidence interval




35058 Mississauga Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.7% ± 7.1% 54.2% Within confidence interval
28.7% ± 6.1% 28.2% Within confidence interval
11.1% ± 3.7% 11.2% Within confidence interval




35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
49.7% ± 7.3% 49.8% Within confidence interval
33.3% ± 6.6% 32.2% Within confidence interval
10.3% ± 4.0% 10.2% Within confidence interval




35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.3% ± 7.2% 50.8% Within confidence interval
31.8% ± 6.4% 33.7% Within confidence interval
10.4% ± 4.0% 10.4% Within confidence interval






35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.6% ± 7.1% 45.0% Within confidence interval
36.3% ± 6.7% 38.7% Within confidence interval
9.7% ± 3.7% 9.8% Within confidence interval




35062 Mississauga–Malton (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
56.1% ± 7.1% 52.9% Within confidence interval
25.9% ± 5.9% 30.5% Within confidence interval
15.2% ± 4.7% 14.0% Within confidence interval




35063 Mississauga–Streetsville (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.4% ± 7.1% 47.4% Within confidence interval
32.3% ± 6.4% 33.6% Within confidence interval
11.9% ± 3.8% 11.8% Within confidence interval




35064 Nepean (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.2% ± 6.9% 45.0% Within confidence interval
32.7% ± 6.3% 33.7% Within confidence interval
15.3% ± 4.5% 16.4% Within confidence interval




35065 Newmarket–Aurora (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.1% ± 6.9% 43.7% Within confidence interval
37.9% ± 6.8% 38.3% Within confidence interval
13.0% ± 4.1% 11.5% Within confidence interval




35066 Niagara Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.3% ± 6.5% 35.0% Within confidence interval
29.3% ± 6.1% 31.2% Within confidence interval
24.7% ± 5.6% 24.0% Within confidence interval
7.7% ± 3.7% 7.9% Within confidence interval




35067 Niagara Falls (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.8% ± 6.5% 37.9% Within confidence interval
31.5% ± 6.1% 33.5% Within confidence interval
21.7% ± 5.1% 18.2% Within confidence interval
6.1% ± 3.1% 8.4% Within confidence interval




35068 Niagara West (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.9% ± 7.2% 45.7% Within confidence interval
29.1% ± 6.3% 30.4% Within confidence interval
14.2% ± 4.5% 12.7% Within confidence interval




35069 Nickel Belt (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.7% ± 6.8% 34.9% Within confidence interval
33.0% ± 6.6% 27.3% Within confidence interval
19.5% ± 5.1% 27.0% Outside confidence interval
8.8% ± 4.2% 9.1% Within confidence interval




35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
37.0% ± 6.8% 38.2% Within confidence interval
26.1% ± 5.9% 32.0% Within confidence interval
24.9% ± 5.8% 22.4% Within confidence interval
12.0% ± 4.4% 7.4% Outside confidence interval






35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.7% ± 6.6% 44.5% Within confidence interval
32.3% ± 6.2% 33.5% Within confidence interval
16.4% ± 4.3% 14.1% Within confidence interval
8.0% ± 3.8% 5.5% Within confidence interval




35072 Oakville (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.6% ± 7.0% 46.4% Within confidence interval
38.4% ± 6.8% 39.6% Within confidence interval
8.8% ± 3.4% 8.9% Within confidence interval




35073 Oakville North–Burlington (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.4% ± 7.1% 46.8% Within confidence interval
38.2% ± 6.9% 38.0% Within confidence interval
9.7% ± 3.7% 10.0% Within confidence interval




35074 Oshawa (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.4% ± 6.4% 39.7% Within confidence interval
32.1% ± 6.2% 28.5% Within confidence interval
22.5% ± 5.1% 22.8% Within confidence interval




35075 Ottawa Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.8% ± 6.8% 45.4% Within confidence interval
33.4% ± 6.3% 33.0% Within confidence interval
12.8% ± 3.9% 15.6% Within confidence interval




35076 Orléans (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.6% ± 6.9% 51.9% Within confidence interval
26.8% ± 5.6% 28.8% Within confidence interval
13.3% ± 3.9% 14.6% Within confidence interval




35077 Ottawa South (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.7% ± 6.8% 48.8% Within confidence interval
24.1% ± 5.3% 26.1% Within confidence interval
18.6% ± 4.5% 19.3% Within confidence interval




35078 Ottawa–Vanier (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.9% ± 6.8% 49.0% Within confidence interval
24.7% ± 5.5% 23.6% Within confidence interval
17.0% ± 4.4% 19.9% Within confidence interval




35079 Ottawa West–Nepean (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.5% ± 6.7% 45.1% Within confidence interval
26.0% ± 5.6% 28.6% Within confidence interval
21.9% ± 5.1% 19.4% Within confidence interval




35080 Oxford (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.3% ± 7.0% 47.1% Within confidence interval
16.6% ± 4.4% 20.4% Within confidence interval
23.8% ± 5.5% 18.2% Outside confidence interval
9.9% ± 4.4% 10.8% Within confidence interval






35081 Parkdale–High Park (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.5% ± 7.0% 42.5% Within confidence interval
34.5% ± 6.6% 39.2% Within confidence interval
13.2% ± 4.1% 13.0% Within confidence interval




35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.6% ± 7.2% 47.9% Within confidence interval
28.5% ± 6.3% 21.6% Outside confidence interval
13.8% ± 4.5% 16.9% Within confidence interval
4.6% ± 3.3% 7.5% Within confidence interval
9.3% ± 4.4% 5.6% Within confidence interval




35083 Perth–Wellington (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.8% ± 7.0% 48.5% Within confidence interval
26.5% ± 5.9% 24.8% Within confidence interval
18.7% ± 4.8% 17.1% Within confidence interval
7.0% ± 3.5% 9.6% Within confidence interval




35084 Peterborough–Kawartha (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
34.6% ± 6.4% 39.0% Within confidence interval
35.2% ± 6.4% 35.1% Within confidence interval
19.3% ± 4.7% 19.0% Within confidence interval




35085 Pickering–Uxbridge (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.5% ± 7.1% 46.8% Within confidence interval
28.9% ± 6.1% 36.1% Outside confidence interval
14.4% ± 4.4% 13.0% Within confidence interval
8.2% ± 3.9% 4.0% Outside confidence interval




35086 Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
52.5% ± 7.0% 49.5% Within confidence interval
17.6% ± 4.6% 20.9% Within confidence interval
16.9% ± 4.5% 19.3% Within confidence interval
8.8% ± 4.1% 7.7% Within confidence interval




35087 Richmond Hill (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.4% ± 7.3% 47.7% Within confidence interval
41.0% ± 7.3% 38.8% Within confidence interval
10.5% ± 4.2% 8.8% Within confidence interval




35088 Carleton (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.5% ± 7.2% 49.9% Within confidence interval
33.3% ± 6.6% 34.3% Within confidence interval
11.1% ± 3.8% 11.5% Within confidence interval




35089 St. Catharines (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.6% ± 6.5% 37.8% Within confidence interval
31.1% ± 6.2% 32.6% Within confidence interval
23.8% ± 5.4% 21.1% Within confidence interval




35090 Toronto–St. Paul`s (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
54.4% ± 7.2% 49.2% Within confidence interval
23.1% ± 5.5% 25.4% Within confidence interval
10.9% ± 4.2% 16.7% Outside confidence interval






35091 Sarnia–Lambton (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.4% ± 6.9% 46.3% Within confidence interval
25.6% ± 5.6% 21.0% Within confidence interval
17.4% ± 4.5% 19.1% Within confidence interval
9.1% ± 4.2% 11.2% Within confidence interval




35092 Sault Ste. Marie (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.2% ± 6.9% 37.9% Within confidence interval
30.4% ± 6.5% 37.3% Outside confidence interval
27.2% ± 6.2% 20.0% Outside confidence interval




35093 Scarborough–Agincourt (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.6% ± 7.5% 56.5% Outside confidence interval
36.1% ± 7.1% 29.0% Within confidence interval
10.1% ± 4.1% 10.1% Within confidence interval




35094 Scarborough Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
52.3% ± 7.3% 57.7% Within confidence interval
22.9% ± 5.5% 24.4% Within confidence interval
14.1% ± 4.4% 13.6% Within confidence interval
9.5% ± 4.4% 3.6% Outside confidence interval




35095 Scarborough–Guildwood (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
64.4% ± 6.9% 61.1% Within confidence interval
17.6% ± 4.9% 21.3% Within confidence interval
11.5% ± 4.0% 13.6% Within confidence interval




35096 Scarborough North (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.0% ± 7.5% 64.4% Outside confidence interval
29.2% ± 6.4% 21.5% Outside confidence interval
15.1% ± 4.8% 10.7% Within confidence interval




35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
68.1% ± 6.7% 62.8% Within confidence interval
15.8% ± 4.9% 21.1% Outside confidence interval
12.1% ± 4.1% 13.3% Within confidence interval




35098 Scarborough Southwest (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
52.7% ± 7.1% 57.5% Within confidence interval
20.0% ± 5.1% 20.8% Within confidence interval
17.8% ± 4.7% 16.0% Within confidence interval




35099 Simcoe–Grey (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.9% ± 6.8% 47.1% Within confidence interval
28.8% ± 6.0% 27.8% Within confidence interval
13.1% ± 4.0% 13.4% Within confidence interval
7.5% ± 3.6% 7.3% Within confidence interval




35100 Simcoe North (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.2% ± 6.9% 43.0% Within confidence interval
27.6% ± 5.9% 30.3% Within confidence interval
16.5% ± 4.4% 15.6% Within confidence interval
7.1% ± 3.5% 7.8% Within confidence interval






35101 Spadina–Fort York (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.4% ± 7.3% 38.9% Within confidence interval
31.4% ± 6.6% 34.5% Within confidence interval
17.7% ± 4.9% 20.2% Within confidence interval




35102 Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.4% ± 7.1% 55.3% Within confidence interval
22.2% ± 5.4% 23.8% Within confidence interval
17.0% ± 4.6% 11.0% Outside confidence interval
8.1% ± 3.9% 7.5% Within confidence interval




35103 Sudbury (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
37.8% ± 6.8% 34.5% Within confidence interval
30.0% ± 6.3% 29.5% Within confidence interval
19.9% ± 5.1% 27.7% Outside confidence interval




35104 Thornhill (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
54.2% ± 7.3% 51.4% Within confidence interval
31.8% ± 6.6% 36.3% Within confidence interval
7.7% ± 3.3% 6.0% Within confidence interval




35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
33.9% ± 6.8% 34.2% Within confidence interval
27.0% ± 6.2% 29.3% Within confidence interval
30.0% ± 6.5% 28.5% Within confidence interval




35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.2% ± 7.1% 40.7% Within confidence interval
23.6% ± 5.7% 27.1% Within confidence interval
24.2% ± 5.8% 24.2% Within confidence interval




35107 Timmins–James Bay (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.2% ± 7.6% 35.1% Outside confidence interval
22.6% ± 5.8% 27.3% Within confidence interval
20.9% ± 5.6% 24.4% Within confidence interval
10.3% ± 4.9% 13.1% Within confidence interval




35108 Toronto Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
40.7% ± 7.0% 50.3% Outside confidence interval
23.4% ± 5.6% 26.0% Within confidence interval
11.5% ± 3.9% 12.1% Within confidence interval
18.6% ± 5.3% 8.5% Outside confidence interval




35109 Toronto–Danforth (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.4% ± 7.2% 48.4% Within confidence interval
35.3% ± 6.7% 33.7% Within confidence interval
10.3% ± 4.0% 12.5% Within confidence interval




35110 University–Rosedale (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.6% ± 7.2% 47.6% Within confidence interval
25.7% ± 5.8% 24.9% Within confidence interval
15.9% ± 4.7% 20.3% Within confidence interval






35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.4% ± 7.3% 46.0% Within confidence interval
35.0% ± 6.8% 40.4% Within confidence interval
8.9% ± 3.7% 6.9% Within confidence interval




35112 Waterloo (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.2% ± 6.9% 45.0% Within confidence interval
24.0% ± 5.5% 27.8% Within confidence interval
17.8% ± 4.6% 19.1% Within confidence interval




35113 Wellington–Halton Hills (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.0% ± 7.0% 52.2% Within confidence interval
26.1% ± 5.7% 27.1% Within confidence interval
10.9% ± 4.1% 10.4% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 3.9% 6.4% Within confidence interval
7.5% ± 3.5% 3.9% Outside confidence interval




35114 Whitby (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.1% ± 6.6% 44.0% Within confidence interval
36.1% ± 6.5% 35.8% Within confidence interval
16.9% ± 4.3% 14.2% Within confidence interval




35115 Willowdale (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.3% ± 7.4% 51.1% Within confidence interval
36.0% ± 7.0% 33.9% Within confidence interval
10.9% ± 4.3% 10.3% Within confidence interval




35116 Windsor–Tecumseh (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
32.6% ± 6.3% 31.8% Within confidence interval
30.8% ± 6.2% 30.6% Within confidence interval
22.0% ± 5.2% 25.6% Within confidence interval
11.3% ± 4.1% 10.4% Within confidence interval




35117 Windsor West (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.0% ± 6.9% 44.3% Within confidence interval
35.5% ± 6.7% 27.9% Outside confidence interval
17.8% ± 4.8% 19.2% Within confidence interval
6.7% ± 3.4% 8.3% Within confidence interval




35118 York Centre (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.2% ± 7.4% 47.3% Within confidence interval
37.8% ± 7.1% 37.7% Within confidence interval
9.6% ± 3.9% 10.2% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 4.0% 4.8% Within confidence interval




35119 York–Simcoe (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.1% ± 7.3% 49.3% Within confidence interval
26.4% ± 6.1% 29.0% Within confidence interval
18.3% ± 5.0% 14.4% Within confidence interval




35120 York South–Weston (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
53.1% ± 7.0% 56.0% Within confidence interval
18.1% ± 4.7% 20.1% Within confidence interval
20.2% ± 5.1% 17.0% Within confidence interval






35121 Humber River–Black Creek (Ontario)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
62.3% ± 7.1% 60.7% Within confidence interval
11.9% ± 4.1% 17.4% Outside confidence interval
19.5% ± 5.2% 16.4% Within confidence interval




46001 Brandon–Souris (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.0% ± 7.6% 59.6% Outside confidence interval
22.9% ± 5.8% 20.5% Within confidence interval
15.3% ± 4.9% 12.1% Within confidence interval
10.9% ± 5.0% 7.8% Within confidence interval




46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
33.1% ± 6.6% 40.0% Outside confidence interval
33.8% ± 6.6% 39.0% Within confidence interval
16.5% ± 4.6% 15.4% Within confidence interval
13.8% ± 4.9% 3.5% Outside confidence interval




46003 Churchill–Keewatinook Aski (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.1% ± 7.6% 42.6% Within confidence interval
29.6% ± 6.8% 25.2% Within confidence interval
14.3% ± 4.8% 24.1% Outside confidence interval




46004 Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.8% ± 7.4% 59.0% Outside confidence interval
18.6% ± 5.1% 14.8% Within confidence interval
16.0% ± 5.0% 12.5% Within confidence interval
9.0% ± 4.4% 10.5% Within confidence interval




46005 Elmwood–Transcona (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.5% ± 7.4% 49.7% Within confidence interval
29.8% ± 6.6% 28.1% Within confidence interval
14.2% ± 4.6% 14.7% Within confidence interval
7.8% ± 3.9% 5.8% Within confidence interval




46006 Kildonan–St. Paul (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
34.2% ± 6.8% 41.8% Outside confidence interval
30.1% ± 6.4% 29.4% Within confidence interval
27.5% ± 6.2% 23.4% Within confidence interval
8.2% ± 4.1% 5.3% Within confidence interval




46007 Portage–Lisgar (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
62.3% ± 7.6% 52.5% Outside confidence interval
10.9% ± 5.0% 21.6% Outside confidence interval
10.9% ± 4.4% 13.4% Within confidence interval
14.7% ± 4.8% 10.9% Within confidence interval




46008 Provencher (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.4% ± 7.2% 48.7% Within confidence interval
15.2% ± 4.8% 17.0% Within confidence interval
11.8% ± 4.4% 16.4% Outside confidence interval
16.8% ± 4.7% 12.6% Within confidence interval




46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.0% ± 7.1% 43.0% Within confidence interval
24.1% ± 5.7% 28.6% Within confidence interval
21.8% ± 5.4% 21.8% Within confidence interval






46010 Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.4% ± 7.2% 57.1% Outside confidence interval
22.4% ± 5.5% 19.4% Within confidence interval
15.4% ± 4.8% 13.2% Within confidence interval
8.8% ± 4.2% 7.7% Within confidence interval




46011 Winnipeg Centre (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.7% ± 7.6% 50.0% Within confidence interval
32.7% ± 7.0% 28.6% Within confidence interval
12.5% ± 4.4% 12.9% Within confidence interval




46012 Winnipeg North (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.9% ± 7.5% 52.1% Outside confidence interval
29.6% ± 6.6% 28.6% Within confidence interval
18.2% ± 5.1% 13.1% Outside confidence interval




46013 Winnipeg South (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.1% ± 6.9% 47.5% Outside confidence interval
35.2% ± 6.7% 33.7% Within confidence interval
16.2% ± 4.5% 14.0% Within confidence interval




46014 Winnipeg South Centre (Manitoba)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.3% ± 7.0% 45.5% Within confidence interval
24.9% ± 5.7% 27.8% Within confidence interval
19.2% ± 4.9% 20.6% Within confidence interval




47001 Battlefords–Lloydminster (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
62.8% ± 8.0% 68.7% Within confidence interval
10.9% ± 4.7% 12.0% Within confidence interval
10.5% ± 5.1% 5.9% Within confidence interval
7.5% ± 3.7% 5.7% Within confidence interval




47002 Cypress Hills–Grasslands (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
65.8% ± 7.9% 71.6% Within confidence interval
9.2% ± 4.2% 10.5% Within confidence interval
10.8% ± 5.2% 8.3% Within confidence interval




47003 Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
33.0% ± 6.9% 48.6% Outside confidence interval
28.0% ± 6.4% 26.8% Within confidence interval
30.4% ± 6.7% 17.6% Outside confidence interval




47004 Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
64.5% ± 7.8% 68.3% Within confidence interval
13.0% ± 4.8% 13.7% Within confidence interval
8.9% ± 4.6% 9.5% Within confidence interval




47005 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
53.2% ± 7.6% 60.4% Within confidence interval
17.2% ± 5.0% 19.4% Within confidence interval
14.5% ± 5.2% 11.4% Within confidence interval






47006 Prince Albert (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.5% ± 7.7% 64.8% Outside confidence interval
19.9% ± 5.4% 15.1% Within confidence interval
10.1% ± 4.2% 10.6% Within confidence interval
11.9% ± 4.6% 7.1% Outside confidence interval




47007 Regina–Lewvan (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.5% ± 6.9% 46.9% Outside confidence interval
32.5% ± 6.6% 34.5% Within confidence interval
17.1% ± 4.7% 13.8% Within confidence interval
9.5% ± 4.5% 3.6% Outside confidence interval




47008 Regina–Qu`Appelle (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
49.3% ± 7.8% 61.8% Outside confidence interval
24.1% ± 6.1% 20.9% Within confidence interval
12.8% ± 4.5% 10.1% Within confidence interval
10.0% ± 4.9% 5.1% Outside confidence interval




47009 Regina–Wascana (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.1% ± 7.1% 49.9% Outside confidence interval
27.1% ± 6.2% 26.9% Within confidence interval
20.4% ± 5.3% 18.1% Within confidence interval
10.0% ± 4.7% 3.5% Outside confidence interval




47010 Saskatoon–Grasswood (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.1% ± 7.3% 50.0% Outside confidence interval
28.4% ± 6.3% 30.0% Within confidence interval
19.2% ± 5.2% 14.2% Within confidence interval
7.7% ± 3.9% 4.6% Within confidence interval




47011 Saskatoon–University (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.8% ± 7.2% 48.0% Outside confidence interval
33.4% ± 6.8% 35.4% Within confidence interval
15.2% ± 4.8% 10.8% Within confidence interval
7.5% ± 3.8% 4.2% Within confidence interval




47012 Saskatoon West (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.0% ± 7.4% 45.4% Within confidence interval
37.5% ± 7.3% 39.2% Within confidence interval
11.8% ± 4.3% 8.2% Within confidence interval
9.0% ± 4.5% 6.1% Within confidence interval




47013 Souris–Moose Mountain (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
70.1% ± 7.9% 76.3% Within confidence interval
10.9% ± 5.2% 9.1% Within confidence interval
8.5% ± 3.9% 8.0% Within confidence interval




47014 Yorkton–Melville (Saskatchewan)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
60.5% ± 8.0% 68.7% Outside confidence interval
12.1% ± 4.5% 12.2% Within confidence interval
11.0% ± 5.3% 9.3% Within confidence interval




48001 Banff–Airdrie (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.1% ± 7.7% 56.8% Within confidence interval
14.4% ± 4.5% 16.2% Within confidence interval
9.4% ± 3.8% 12.3% Within confidence interval
11.3% ± 4.2% 7.6% Within confidence interval






48002 Battle River–Crowfoot (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
72.3% ± 6.7% 71.3% Within confidence interval
8.1% ± 3.4% 9.8% Within confidence interval
8.9% ± 4.2% 9.3% Within confidence interval




48003 Bow River (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
72.3% ± 6.9% 69.6% Within confidence interval
8.7% ± 4.2% 10.0% Within confidence interval
8.9% ± 3.8% 9.3% Within confidence interval
5.6% ± 3.2% 7.7% Within confidence interval




48004 Calgary Centre (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
40.5% ± 6.9% 51.4% Outside confidence interval
38.2% ± 6.7% 29.7% Outside confidence interval
16.1% ± 4.3% 16.3% Within confidence interval




48005 Calgary Confederation (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.7% ± 6.4% 46.0% Outside confidence interval
33.4% ± 6.2% 28.5% Within confidence interval
17.6% ± 4.4% 17.1% Within confidence interval




48006 Calgary Forest Lawn (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.5% ± 7.0% 44.4% Within confidence interval
29.3% ± 6.3% 27.7% Within confidence interval
20.0% ± 5.2% 18.1% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 4.1% 7.3% Within confidence interval




48007 Calgary Heritage (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.6% ± 6.9% 57.6% Outside confidence interval
18.3% ± 4.6% 17.3% Within confidence interval
18.7% ± 4.7% 16.8% Within confidence interval
8.0% ± 3.8% 5.0% Within confidence interval




48008 Calgary Midnapore (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
50.5% ± 7.0% 60.7% Outside confidence interval
19.4% ± 4.8% 18.3% Within confidence interval
15.3% ± 4.5% 12.3% Within confidence interval
8.8% ± 4.0% 6.1% Within confidence interval




48009 Calgary Nose Hill (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.8% ± 7.0% 55.6% Outside confidence interval
21.7% ± 5.2% 20.5% Within confidence interval
19.4% ± 4.9% 16.9% Within confidence interval
8.3% ± 3.9% 4.6% Within confidence interval




48010 Calgary Rocky Ridge (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.1% ± 6.9% 54.5% Outside confidence interval
25.7% ± 5.6% 22.2% Within confidence interval
17.1% ± 4.4% 16.3% Within confidence interval




48011 Calgary Shepard (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.3% ± 7.1% 60.3% Outside confidence interval
17.3% ± 4.5% 16.4% Within confidence interval
15.5% ± 4.6% 14.0% Within confidence interval
8.7% ± 4.1% 5.8% Within confidence interval






48012 Calgary Signal Hill (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.2% ± 6.9% 58.3% Outside confidence interval
21.9% ± 5.1% 19.5% Within confidence interval
16.4% ± 4.3% 14.7% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 3.9% 4.8% Within confidence interval




48013 Calgary Skyview (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
35.9% ± 6.7% 42.7% Outside confidence interval
32.8% ± 6.5% 35.6% Within confidence interval
23.3% ± 5.5% 16.3% Outside confidence interval




48014 Edmonton Centre (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
34.0% ± 6.5% 33.7% Within confidence interval
34.6% ± 6.5% 32.5% Within confidence interval
25.2% ± 5.6% 28.8% Within confidence interval




48015 Edmonton Griesbach (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.4% ± 6.8% 40.5% Within confidence interval
35.0% ± 6.7% 37.1% Within confidence interval
20.9% ± 5.2% 13.9% Outside confidence interval




48016 Edmonton Manning (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.7% ± 6.9% 41.1% Within confidence interval
27.6% ± 6.0% 30.5% Within confidence interval
25.2% ± 5.8% 21.3% Within confidence interval
7.5% ± 3.7% 6.9% Within confidence interval




48017 Edmonton Mill Woods (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.6% ± 6.7% 37.6% Within confidence interval
35.8% ± 6.6% 34.0% Within confidence interval
18.9% ± 4.8% 21.9% Within confidence interval
7.6% ± 3.7% 6.1% Within confidence interval




48018 Edmonton Riverbend (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
34.3% ± 6.4% 45.1% Outside confidence interval
26.8% ± 5.7% 24.9% Within confidence interval
32.3% ± 6.3% 24.8% Outside confidence interval




48019 Edmonton Strathcona (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
54.4% ± 7.2% 60.7% Within confidence interval
24.3% ± 5.7% 25.4% Within confidence interval
13.4% ± 4.2% 7.6% Outside confidence interval




48020 Edmonton West (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.8% ± 6.9% 45.1% Within confidence interval
23.2% ± 5.4% 25.3% Within confidence interval
27.1% ± 5.9% 23.3% Within confidence interval




48021 Edmonton–Wetaskiwin (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
62.9% ± 6.7% 55.7% Outside confidence interval
17.5% ± 4.7% 21.0% Within confidence interval
11.6% ± 3.8% 14.1% Within confidence interval
6.9% ± 3.4% 8.8% Within confidence interval






48022 Foothills (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
70.0% ± 7.0% 69.2% Within confidence interval
8.6% ± 3.6% 11.1% Within confidence interval
8.6% ± 4.1% 8.0% Within confidence interval




48023 Fort McMurray–Cold Lake (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
62.5% ± 7.5% 67.3% Within confidence interval
15.0% ± 5.3% 12.8% Within confidence interval
8.1% ± 3.6% 10.3% Within confidence interval
8.3% ± 3.6% 7.2% Within confidence interval




48024 Grande Prairie–Mackenzie (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
71.7% ± 7.0% 68.4% Within confidence interval
10.9% ± 4.3% 12.2% Within confidence interval
8.1% ± 4.0% 10.2% Within confidence interval




48025 Lakeland (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
71.5% ± 6.9% 69.2% Within confidence interval
8.7% ± 4.1% 11.0% Within confidence interval
10.1% ± 4.1% 10.8% Within confidence interval




48026 Lethbridge (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
54.6% ± 7.1% 55.7% Within confidence interval
22.8% ± 5.5% 19.2% Within confidence interval
14.5% ± 4.5% 15.1% Within confidence interval




48027 Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
67.2% ± 7.1% 65.4% Within confidence interval
13.5% ± 4.5% 14.0% Within confidence interval
7.9% ± 3.9% 9.3% Within confidence interval




48028 Peace River–Westlock (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
68.0% ± 7.0% 62.8% Within confidence interval
9.1% ± 4.3% 12.9% Within confidence interval
11.6% ± 4.0% 12.8% Within confidence interval




48029 Red Deer–Mountain View (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
68.2% ± 7.0% 64.2% Within confidence interval
11.4% ± 3.9% 13.9% Within confidence interval
10.8% ± 4.8% 11.9% Within confidence interval




48030 Red Deer–Lacombe (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
67.7% ± 7.0% 64.1% Within confidence interval
13.8% ± 4.3% 14.2% Within confidence interval
9.6% ± 4.4% 12.8% Within confidence interval




48031 St. Albert–Edmonton (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.0% ± 7.0% 47.6% Within confidence interval
23.6% ± 5.4% 28.6% Within confidence interval
17.1% ± 4.5% 17.9% Within confidence interval
8.2% ± 3.9% 5.9% Within confidence interval






48032 Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
61.8% ± 7.1% 57.5% Within confidence interval
17.9% ± 4.7% 20.7% Within confidence interval
8.1% ± 3.4% 12.2% Outside confidence interval




48033 Sturgeon River–Parkland (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
66.2% ± 7.1% 61.4% Within confidence interval
15.5% ± 4.8% 19.1% Within confidence interval
7.3% ± 3.6% 10.0% Within confidence interval




48034 Yellowhead (Alberta)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
70.0% ± 7.2% 66.2% Within confidence interval
8.8% ± 4.2% 12.7% Within confidence interval
10.9% ± 4.3% 11.8% Within confidence interval




59001 Abbotsford (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.9% ± 7.0% 47.9% Within confidence interval
20.6% ± 5.1% 24.1% Within confidence interval
24.7% ± 5.7% 17.2% Outside confidence interval




59002 Burnaby North–Seymour (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
26.8% ± 5.8% 39.5% Outside confidence interval
34.6% ± 6.6% 29.1% Within confidence interval
27.3% ± 5.9% 25.5% Within confidence interval




59003 Burnaby South (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.3% ± 7.2% 40.3% Within confidence interval
19.1% ± 5.0% 30.4% Outside confidence interval
26.4% ± 6.0% 22.4% Within confidence interval




59004 Cariboo–Prince George (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
47.2% ± 7.0% 50.8% Within confidence interval
21.3% ± 5.2% 20.3% Within confidence interval
17.2% ± 4.5% 16.6% Within confidence interval
7.6% ± 3.7% 8.2% Within confidence interval




59005 Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
40.9% ± 6.8% 45.9% Within confidence interval
22.8% ± 5.3% 23.6% Within confidence interval
23.9% ± 5.4% 20.7% Within confidence interval
7.5% ± 3.7% 7.2% Within confidence interval




59006 Chilliwack–Hope (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
43.0% ± 7.0% 46.0% Within confidence interval
23.5% ± 5.6% 26.7% Within confidence interval
17.6% ± 4.7% 17.0% Within confidence interval
9.9% ± 4.6% 7.7% Within confidence interval




59007 Cloverdale–Langley City (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
31.4% ± 6.3% 39.2% Outside confidence interval
39.8% ± 6.9% 36.1% Within confidence interval
21.9% ± 5.3% 19.9% Within confidence interval






59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
29.1% ± 6.0% 38.5% Outside confidence interval
33.3% ± 6.4% 30.3% Within confidence interval
32.2% ± 6.3% 26.9% Within confidence interval




59009 Courtenay–Alberni (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.6% ± 7.0% 44.2% Outside confidence interval
28.0% ± 5.9% 32.0% Within confidence interval
9.1% ± 3.6% 13.3% Outside confidence interval




59010 Cowichan–Malahat–Langford (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.8% ± 7.0% 42.8% Within confidence interval
22.9% ± 5.3% 28.4% Outside confidence interval
13.0% ± 4.1% 16.4% Within confidence interval
11.4% ± 4.0% 6.2% Outside confidence interval




59011 Delta (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
34.9% ± 6.5% 42.3% Outside confidence interval
34.7% ± 6.4% 33.8% Within confidence interval
19.6% ± 4.8% 18.3% Within confidence interval




59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
32.9% ± 6.3% 45.3% Outside confidence interval
32.7% ± 6.3% 30.8% Within confidence interval
24.2% ± 5.4% 19.0% Within confidence interval




59013 Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
44.0% ± 6.6% 42.7% Within confidence interval
18.7% ± 4.5% 29.1% Outside confidence interval
22.4% ± 5.0% 18.1% Within confidence interval




59014 Kelowna–Lake Country (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.2% ± 7.0% 45.3% Within confidence interval
27.7% ± 5.9% 26.4% Within confidence interval
15.3% ± 4.5% 18.2% Within confidence interval




59015 Kootenay–Columbia (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.2% ± 7.0% 43.2% Within confidence interval
39.3% ± 6.9% 36.9% Within confidence interval
6.8% ± 3.0% 9.1% Within confidence interval




59016 Langley–Aldergrove (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.8% ± 6.9% 45.7% Within confidence interval
22.3% ± 5.3% 26.5% Within confidence interval
22.9% ± 5.3% 19.6% Within confidence interval




59017 Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.0% ± 6.9% 43.7% Within confidence interval
23.7% ± 5.6% 24.6% Within confidence interval
23.3% ± 5.5% 20.2% Within confidence interval
7.6% ± 3.8% 7.1% Within confidence interval






59018 Nanaimo–Ladysmith (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner, but within confidence interval
27.6% ± 5.7% 28.9% Within confidence interval
27.5% ± 5.7% 27.0% Within confidence interval
29.1% ± 6.1% 25.6% Within confidence interval
10.0% ± 3.7% 13.6% Within confidence interval




59019 New Westminster–Burnaby (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
55.4% ± 7.0% 48.7% Within confidence interval
20.0% ± 5.1% 23.7% Within confidence interval
20.1% ± 5.1% 19.7% Within confidence interval




59020 North Okanagan–Shuswap (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.2% ± 6.7% 46.4% Within confidence interval
20.6% ± 4.8% 19.3% Within confidence interval
19.4% ± 4.7% 18.9% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 3.9% 10.0% Within confidence interval




59021 North Vancouver (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.9% ± 6.7% 45.1% Within confidence interval
26.4% ± 5.6% 28.1% Within confidence interval
19.6% ± 4.7% 19.8% Within confidence interval




59022 Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
36.1% ± 6.7% 36.6% Within confidence interval
30.7% ± 6.3% 31.9% Within confidence interval
26.6% ± 5.9% 24.9% Within confidence interval




59023 Port Moody–Coquitlam (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
34.9% ± 6.5% 37.2% Within confidence interval
34.3% ± 6.5% 31.9% Within confidence interval
23.7% ± 5.4% 27.3% Within confidence interval




59024 Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
64.1% ± 7.3% 60.7% Within confidence interval
10.3% ± 4.1% 13.5% Within confidence interval
8.4% ± 4.0% 10.5% Within confidence interval
8.7% ± 3.6% 8.6% Within confidence interval




59025 Richmond Centre (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
24.3% ± 6.0% 39.3% Outside confidence interval
46.9% ± 7.5% 37.1% Outside confidence interval
19.3% ± 5.3% 18.1% Within confidence interval




59026 Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.2% ± 6.7% 42.9% Within confidence interval
15.4% ± 4.4% 22.0% Outside confidence interval
17.6% ± 4.4% 21.2% Within confidence interval
14.7% ± 4.6% 9.0% Outside confidence interval




59027 Saanich–Gulf Islands (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
37.5% ± 6.8% 37.5% Within confidence interval
20.9% ± 4.9% 22.5% Within confidence interval
19.0% ± 4.6% 18.4% Within confidence interval
15.6% ± 4.4% 18.4% Within confidence interval






59028 Skeena–Bulkley Valley (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
51.3% ± 7.4% 42.3% Outside confidence interval
27.9% ± 6.3% 36.1% Outside confidence interval
7.0% ± 3.6% 7.8% Within confidence interval
8.6% ± 3.7% 7.8% Within confidence interval




59029 South Okanagan–West Kootenay (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.6% ± 6.7% 41.3% Within confidence interval
36.0% ± 6.5% 35.4% Within confidence interval
13.6% ± 4.1% 12.3% Within confidence interval




59030 South Surrey–White Rock (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
48.2% ± 7.3% 42.4% Within confidence interval
31.6% ± 6.5% 38.9% Outside confidence interval
14.3% ± 4.5% 14.8% Within confidence interval




59031 Steveston–Richmond East (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Incorrect winner
30.4% ± 6.5% 42.5% Outside confidence interval
43.9% ± 7.3% 33.5% Outside confidence interval
18.6% ± 5.0% 19.3% Within confidence interval




59032 Surrey Centre (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
34.8% ± 6.5% 44.0% Outside confidence interval
28.9% ± 6.1% 27.7% Within confidence interval
23.4% ± 5.4% 21.1% Within confidence interval




59033 Surrey–Newton (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
39.6% ± 6.9% 53.9% Outside confidence interval
33.4% ± 6.5% 26.1% Outside confidence interval
20.3% ± 5.0% 15.7% Within confidence interval




59034 Vancouver Centre (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
41.5% ± 7.0% 40.1% Within confidence interval
27.4% ± 6.0% 30.5% Within confidence interval
19.1% ± 4.9% 22.0% Within confidence interval




59035 Vancouver East (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
60.4% ± 7.2% 56.4% Within confidence interval
14.5% ± 4.5% 19.8% Outside confidence interval
10.5% ± 4.1% 10.9% Within confidence interval
8.6% ± 3.9% 7.7% Within confidence interval




59036 Vancouver Granville (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
30.7% ± 6.3% 34.4% Within confidence interval
30.0% ± 6.2% 33.5% Within confidence interval
30.3% ± 6.2% 26.8% Within confidence interval




59037 North Island–Powell River (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
46.2% ± 7.0% 39.5% Within confidence interval
27.1% ± 5.8% 36.0% Outside confidence interval
9.9% ± 3.8% 13.1% Within confidence interval






59038 Vancouver Kingsway (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
56.2% ± 7.1% 52.3% Within confidence interval
18.1% ± 4.9% 27.4% Outside confidence interval
17.1% ± 4.7% 13.6% Within confidence interval




59039 Vancouver Quadra (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.9% ± 6.9% 43.6% Within confidence interval
27.7% ± 5.9% 28.9% Within confidence interval
18.1% ± 4.7% 19.3% Within confidence interval




59040 Vancouver South (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
40.3% ± 7.1% 49.4% Outside confidence interval
22.2% ± 5.4% 24.7% Within confidence interval
31.2% ± 6.5% 22.4% Outside confidence interval




59041 Victoria (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
42.4% ± 6.6% 43.8% Within confidence interval
20.4% ± 4.8% 27.2% Outside confidence interval
12.1% ± 3.7% 13.9% Within confidence interval
18.6% ± 4.8% 11.2% Outside confidence interval




59042 West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country (British Columbia)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
31.2% ± 5.9% 33.8% Within confidence interval
29.1% ± 5.8% 30.1% Within confidence interval
19.4% ± 4.6% 25.6% Outside confidence interval
13.2% ± 4.3% 6.5% Outside confidence interval




60001 Yukon (Yukon)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
32.3% ± 8.4% 33.2% Within confidence interval
25.3% ± 7.6% 26.2% Within confidence interval
25.3% ± 7.6% 22.4% Within confidence interval
9.0% ± 6.7% 13.6% Within confidence interval
8.1% ± 4.9% 4.7% Within confidence interval




61001 Northwest Territories (Northwest Territories)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.0% ± 8.7% 38.1% Within confidence interval
25.3% ± 7.5% 32.3% Within confidence interval
23.0% ± 7.2% 14.4% Outside confidence interval
1.1% ± 1.9% 12.7% Outside confidence interval
12.6% ± 5.7% 2.5% Outside confidence interval




62001 Nunavut (Nunavut)



Final 2021 Projection 2021 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
38.0% ± 9.8% 47.9% Outside confidence interval
34.0% ± 9.5% 35.6% Within confidence interval
27.9% ± 8.8% 16.6% Outside confidence interval




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