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Newfoundland & labrador


St. John’s Centre


MHA: Jim Dinn (NDP)


Latest projection: April 15, 2024

NDP likely
St. John’s Centre 50% ± 10%▼ NDP 26% ± 8% LIB 24% ± 7%▲ PC NDP 2021 52.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% St. John’s Centre >99% NDP NDP <1% LIB LIB <1% PC PC Odds of winning | April 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | St. John’s Centre

LIB 26% ± 8% PC 24% ± 7% NDP 50% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | St. John’s Centre 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP

Odds of winning | St. John’s Centre

LIB <1% PC <1% NDP >99% NLA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP NLA

Recent electoral history | St. John’s Centre



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 46.9% 52.4% 50% ± 10% LIB 25.5% 33.6% 26% ± 8% PC 27.5% 14.0% 24% ± 7%