Regions of Quebec, 51 districts
Safe | Likely | Leaning | Toss up | Projected ahead | Last election (2022) | |
13 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 2 | |
0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 37 | |
1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Projected ahead | Last election (2022) | |
34 | 2 | |
9 | 37 | |
3 | 1 | |
3 | 0 | |
2 | 1 |
Projection | the Regions of Quebec
Latest update: March 21, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today.
The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes.
The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean.
Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.
Popular vote projection | Regions of Quebec
Seat projection | Regions of Quebec
List of electoral districts
Latest update: March 21, 2024
Electoral district | Current party | Latest projection |
---|---|---|
001 Abitibi-Est | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
002 Abitibi-Ouest | Likely PQ gain | |
005 Argenteuil | Likely PQ gain | |
006 Arthabaska | Leaning CAQ hold | |
007 Beauce-Nord | PCQ likely gain | |
008 Beauce-Sud | PCQ likely gain | |
011 Berthier | Safe PQ gain | |
012 Bertrand | Safe PQ gain | |
014 Bonaventure | Safe PQ gain | |
018 Brome-Missisquoi | Leaning PQ gain | |
020 Champlain | Leaning CAQ hold | |
021 Chapleau | Leaning CAQ hold | |
026 Chicoutimi | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
029 Côte-du-Sud | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
032 Drummond–Bois-Francs | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
033 Dubuc | Leaning PQ gain | |
034 Duplessis | Safe PQ gain | |
036 Gaspé | Safe PQ gain | |
037 Gatineau | Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ | |
039 Granby | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
042 Hull | Leaning LIB gain | |
043 Huntingdon | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
044 Iberville | Likely PQ gain | |
045 Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Safe PQ hold | |
050 Johnson | Leaning CAQ hold | |
051 Joliette | Safe PQ gain | |
052 Jonquière | Leaning PQ gain | |
057 Labelle | Safe PQ gain | |
058 Lac-Saint-Jean | Likely PQ gain | |
063 Laviolette-Saint-Maurice | Leaning PQ gain | |
066 Lotbinière-Frontenac | Toss up CAQ/QCP | |
071 Maskinongé | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
073 Matane-Matapédia | Safe PQ hold | |
075 Mégantic | Leaning PQ gain | |
083 Nicolet-Bécancour | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
085 Orford | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
086 Papineau | Leaning CAQ hold | |
088 Pontiac | Safe LIB hold | |
090 Prévost | Safe PQ gain | |
091 René-Lévesque | Safe PQ gain | |
094 Richmond | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
095 Rimouski | Safe PQ gain | |
096 Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
098 Roberval | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
101 Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | Toss up PQ/QS | |
102 Saint-François | QS leaning gain | |
104 Saint-Hyacinthe | Leaning PQ gain | |
106 Saint-Jérôme | Safe PQ gain | |
111 Sherbrooke | QS safe hold | |
116 Trois-Rivières | Toss up PQ/CAQ | |
117 Ungava | Toss up PQ/QS |