logo
Quebec


Vanier-Les Rivières


MNA: Mario Asselin (CAQ)


Latest projection: March 21, 2024

Safe PQ gain
Vanier-Les Rivières 35% ± 7%▲ 23% ± 6%▼ 17% ± 6%▼ 15% ± 4% 8% ± 3% CAQ 2022 47.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Vanier-Les Rivières >99%▲ <1%▼ <1%▼ Odds of winning | March 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vanier-Les Rivières

LIB 8% ± 3% PQ 35% ± 7% CAQ 23% ± 6% QS 15% ± 4% QCP 17% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Vanier-Les Rivières 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP March 21, 2024

Odds of winning | Vanier-Les Rivières

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS March 21, 2024

Recent electoral history | Vanier-Les Rivières



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 34.5% 45.1% 47.4% 23% ± 6% QCP 1.3% 3.6% 19.5% 17% ± 6% PQ 15.0% 9.9% 13.1% 35% ± 7% QS 4.6% 12.2% 12.2% 15% ± 4% LIB 43.6% 25.5% 6.3% 8% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.