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Quebec


Prévost


MNA: Sonia Bélanger (CAQ)


Latest projection: March 21, 2024

Safe PQ gain
Prévost 40% ± 7%▲ 26% ± 6%▼ 16% ± 5% 9% ± 4%▼ 7% ± 3% CAQ 2022 46.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Prévost >99%▲ <1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | March 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Prévost

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 40% ± 7% CAQ 26% ± 6% QS 16% ± 5% QCP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Prévost 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP March 21, 2024

Odds of winning | Prévost

LIB <1% PQ >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS March 21, 2024

Recent electoral history | Prévost



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 32.9% 47.0% 46.2% 26% ± 6% PQ 34.6% 24.5% 19.6% 40% ± 7% QS 6.8% 14.0% 15.1% 16% ± 5% QCP 0.0% 1.0% 11.7% 9% ± 4% LIB 24.5% 12.8% 6.0% 7% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.