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Quebec


Arthabaska


MNA: Éric Lefebvre (CAQ)


Latest projection: March 21, 2024

Leaning CAQ hold
Arthabaska 32% ± 7%▼ 28% ± 6%▲ 22% ± 6% 12% ± 4% 5% ± 2% CAQ 2022 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Arthabaska 77%▼ 22%▲ 1% Odds of winning | March 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Arthabaska

LIB 5% ± 2% PQ 28% ± 6% CAQ 32% ± 7% QS 12% ± 4% QCP 22% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Arthabaska 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP March 21, 2024

Odds of winning | Arthabaska

LIB <1% PQ 22% CAQ 77% QS <1% QCP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP March 21, 2024

Recent electoral history | Arthabaska



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 45.5% 61.8% 51.7% 32% ± 7% QCP 1.1% 2.3% 24.7% 22% ± 6% PQ 17.1% 9.4% 10.0% 28% ± 6% QS 5.2% 12.6% 9.2% 12% ± 4% LIB 30.2% 11.4% 3.8% 5% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.