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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: April 4, 2024

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection38.6% ± 4.1%
Current number of MPP79
Current seat projection73 [57-95]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 4, 2024 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada ©2023 4.4 seat/% 73 [57-95] 39% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | April 4, 2024

29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 34.6% ▼ 38.6% ± 4.1% ▼ Max. 42.7% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | April 4, 2024

33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 103 108 113 118 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 57 ▼ Majority 63 seats 73 ▼ 2022 83 seats Max. 95 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
2. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
3. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
4. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
5. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
6. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
7. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
8. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
9. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
10. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
11. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
12. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
13. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
14. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
15. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
16. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
17. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
18. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
19. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
20. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
21. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO >99%
22. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
23. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
24. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
25. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
26. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
27. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
28. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
29. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
30. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
31. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
32. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
33. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
34. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
35. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
36. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
37. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
38. Thornhill Likely PCPO >99%
39. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO >99%
40. Carleton Likely PCPO >99%
41. Brampton South Likely PCPO 99%
42. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO 99%
43. Richmond Hill Likely PCPO 99%
44. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO 99%
45. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO 99%
46. Brampton East Likely PCPO 99%
47. Brampton North Likely PCPO 99%
48. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 99%
49. Cambridge Likely PCPO 98%
50. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO 98%
51. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO 97%
52. Scarborough North Likely PCPO 97%
53. Burlington Likely PCPO 96%
54. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 95%
55. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 92%
56. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 91%
57. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 91%
58. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 90%
59. Etobicoke Centre Leaning PCPO 89%
60. York Centre Leaning PCPO 86%
61. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO 84%
62. Kanata—Carleton Leaning PCPO 81%
63. Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning PCPO 75%
64. Don Valley North Leaning PCPO 72%
65. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 70%
66. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up OLP/PCPO 69%
67. York South—Weston Toss up PCPO/NDP 68%
68. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO 63%
69. Niagara Centre Toss up PCPO/NDP 61%
70. Parry Sound—Muskoka Toss up PCPO/GPO 58%
71. Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO 57%
72. Milton Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
73. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO 51%
74. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
75. Mississauga Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
76. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up OLP/PCPO 49%
77. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
78. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 47%
79. Timiskaming—Cochrane Toss up PCPO/NDP 46%
80. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up OLP/PCPO 44%
81. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP 41%
82. St. Catharines Toss up PCPO/NDP 39%
83. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 38%
84. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP 36%
85. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
86. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 32%
87. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 31%
88. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 31%
89. Algoma—Manitoulin Leaning NDP 29%
90. Eglinton—Lawrence Leaning OLP 24%
91. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Leaning NDP 23%
92. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Leaning OLP 21%
93. London North Centre Leaning NDP 13%
94. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 13%
95. Niagara Falls Leaning NDP 12%
96. London West Leaning NDP 11%
97. Haldimand—Norfolk IND likely 9%
98. Thunder Bay—Superior North Likely OLP 7%
99. Humber River—Black Creek Leaning OLP 5%
100. Don Valley West Likely OLP 5%
101. London—Fanshawe Likely NDP 4%
102. Kiiwetinoong Likely NDP 3%
103. Hamilton Mountain Likely NDP 3%
104. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 2%
105. Nickel Belt Likely NDP 2%
106. Waterloo Likely NDP 1%