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Ontario

Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: April 4, 2024

LeaderBonnie Crombie
Popular vote in 202223.9%
Current vote projection28.1% ± 3.6%
Current number of MPP9
Current seat projection23 [6-39]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 4, 2024 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% Vote efficiency | OLP 338Canada ©2023 4.1 seat/% 23 [6-39] 28% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | April 4, 2024

20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 23.9% Min. 24.5% ▼ 28.1% ± 3.6% ▼ Max. 31.7% ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Seat projection | April 4, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 6 ▼ 2022 8 seats 23 ▼ Max. 39 ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ottawa South Safe OLP >99%
2. Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP >99%
3. Orléans Likely OLP >99%
4. Don Valley East Likely OLP >99%
5. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 98%
6. Kingston and the Islands Likely OLP 97%
7. Beaches—East York Likely OLP 96%
8. Don Valley West Likely OLP 95%
9. Thunder Bay—Superior North Likely OLP 92%
10. Toronto—St. Paul’s Leaning OLP 81%
11. Humber River—Black Creek Leaning OLP 80%
12. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Leaning OLP 79%
13. Eglinton—Lawrence Leaning OLP 76%
14. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 69%
15. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 68%
16. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 62%
17. Toronto Centre Toss up OLP/NDP 59%
18. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up OLP/PCPO 56%
19. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
20. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 52%
21. Mississauga Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
22. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
23. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
24. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO 49%
25. Milton Toss up OLP/PCPO 47%
26. Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO 43%
27. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO 37%
28. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 33%
29. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up OLP/PCPO 31%
30. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 30%
31. Don Valley North Leaning PCPO 28%
32. Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning PCPO 25%
33. University—Rosedale Leaning NDP 25%
34. Kanata—Carleton Leaning PCPO 19%
35. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO 16%
36. York Centre Leaning PCPO 14%
37. Etobicoke Centre Leaning PCPO 11%
38. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 10%
39. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 9%
40. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 8%
41. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 7%
42. York South—Weston Toss up PCPO/NDP 6%
43. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 5%
44. Burlington Likely PCPO 4%
45. Spadina—Fort York Likely NDP 4%
46. Scarborough North Likely PCPO 3%
47. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO 3%
48. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO 2%
49. London North Centre Leaning NDP 2%
50. Cambridge Likely PCPO 2%
51. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 1%
52. Brampton North Likely PCPO 1%
53. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 1%