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Ontario


Scarborough—Agincourt


MPP: Babikian, Aris (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Toss up OLP/PCPO
Scarborough—Agincourt 44% ± 9%▲ 42% ± 9%▼ 9% ± 4% 3% ± 2% PCPO 2022 49.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Scarborough—Agincourt 61%▲ 39%▼ <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Agincourt

OLP 42% ± 9% PCPO 44% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Agincourt 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Agincourt

OLP 39% PCPO 61% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Agincourt



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.6% 50.4% 49.1% 44% ± 9% OLP 49.8% 28.3% 37.3% 42% ± 9% NDP 11.8% 17.4% 8.7% 9% ± 4% GPO 2.6% 1.7% 2.2% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%