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Ontario


Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke


MPP: Yakabuski, John (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Safe PCPO
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 58% ± 9%▲ 17% ± 6%▼ 13% ± 5%▼ 5% ± 4% 4% ± 3% PCPO 2022 61.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

OLP 13% ± 5% PCPO 58% ± 9% NDP 17% ± 6% GPO 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 61.1% 69.2% 61.1% 58% ± 9% NDP 14.5% 16.7% 17.1% 17% ± 6% OLP 19.1% 9.8% 9.8% 13% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 4% ± 3% GPO 3.2% 3.0% 3.7% 5% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2% ± 2%