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Ontario


Ottawa South


MPP: Fraser, John (OLP)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Safe OLP
Ottawa South 49% ± 9%▼ 22% ± 7%▲ 21% ± 7%▼ 6% ± 4% OLP 2022 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Ottawa South >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa South

OLP 49% ± 9% PCPO 22% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 7% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Ottawa South

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Ottawa South



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 50.0% 39.6% 45.1% 49% ± 9% NDP 12.3% 27.2% 23.8% 21% ± 7% PCPO 32.1% 29.2% 23.2% 22% ± 7% GPO 4.3% 3.1% 4.7% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%