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Ontario


Markham—Stouffville


MPP: Calandra, Paul (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Leaning PCPO
Markham—Stouffville 45% ± 9%▲ 39% ± 9%▼ 9% ± 4% 5% ± 3% PCPO 2022 48.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Markham—Stouffville 85%▲ 15%▼ <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Stouffville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 15% PCPO 85% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Markham—Stouffville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.1% 48.1% 48.4% 45% ± 9% OLP 48.5% 26.0% 35.5% 39% ± 9% NDP 12.1% 20.4% 9.5% 9% ± 4% GPO 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1%