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Ontario


Kitchener—Conestoga


MPP: Harris, Mike (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Likely PCPO
Kitchener—Conestoga 37% ± 9%▲ 24% ± 8%▼ 23% ± 7% 10% ± 5% 5% ± 3% PCPO 2022 40.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Kitchener—Conestoga >99%▲ <1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kitchener—Conestoga

OLP 23% ± 7% PCPO 37% ± 9% NDP 24% ± 8% GPO 10% ± 5% NBPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener—Conestoga 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO NBPO

Odds of winning | Kitchener—Conestoga

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Kitchener—Conestoga



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.7% 39.6% 40.0% 37% ± 9% NDP 20.7% 38.0% 28.9% 24% ± 8% OLP 34.3% 14.1% 17.5% 23% ± 7% GPO 6.5% 6.5% 6.2% 10% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 5% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%