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Ontario


Etobicoke—Lakeshore


MPP: Hogarth, Christine (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Leaning OLP
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 41% ± 8%▼ 34% ± 8%▲ 15% ± 6%▼ 6% ± 4% PCPO 2022 37.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Etobicoke—Lakeshore 89%▼ 11%▲ <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Etobicoke—Lakeshore

OLP 41% ± 8% PCPO 34% ± 8% NDP 15% ± 6% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke—Lakeshore 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Etobicoke—Lakeshore

OLP 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke—Lakeshore



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.1% 38.4% 37.4% 34% ± 8% OLP 47.6% 24.3% 35.8% 41% ± 8% NDP 12.5% 32.8% 17.9% 15% ± 6% GPO 4.1% 3.6% 4.7% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 2% ± 2%