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Ontario


Etobicoke Centre


MPP: Surma, Kinga (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Leaning PCPO
Etobicoke Centre 44% ± 9%▲ 39% ± 9%▼ 8% ± 4% 6% ± 4% PCPO 2022 48.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Etobicoke Centre 79%▲ 21%▼ <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Etobicoke Centre

OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 44% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Etobicoke Centre

OLP 21% PCPO 79% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.4% 42.7% 48.6% 44% ± 9% OLP 48.7% 34.4% 34.0% 39% ± 9% NDP 11.5% 18.0% 8.6% 8% ± 4% GPO 2.6% 2.3% 4.5% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1%