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Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


MPP: Parsa, Michael (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Likely PCPO
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 49% ± 9%▲ 35% ± 8%▼ 7% ± 4%▼ 5% ± 3% PCPO 2022 53.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 99%▲ 1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

OLP 35% ± 8% PCPO 49% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

OLP 1% PCPO 99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 38.1% 56.0% 53.3% 49% ± 9% OLP 45.7% 21.6% 30.7% 35% ± 8% NDP 10.5% 18.0% 7.7% 7% ± 4% GPO 3.5% 2.7% 3.9% 5% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2% ± 2%