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Nova scotia

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: March 9, 2024

LeaderTim Houston
Popular vote in 202138.4%
Current vote projection48.0% ± 3.4%
Current seat projection41 ± 3

Vote projection | March 9, 2024

40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 44.6% 48.0% ± 3.4% Max. 51.5% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | March 9, 2024

34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 38 41 Max. 44 Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Argyle PC safe >99%
2. Pictou East PC safe >99%
3. Queens PC safe >99%
4. Cumberland South PC safe >99%
5. Guysborough-Tracadie PC safe >99%
6. Pictou West PC safe >99%
7. Shelburne PC safe >99%
8. Inverness PC safe >99%
9. Pictou Centre PC safe >99%
10. Victoria-The Lakes PC safe >99%
11. Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley PC safe >99%
12. Colchester North PC safe >99%
13. Richmond PC safe >99%
14. Kings West PC safe >99%
15. Digby-Annapolis PC safe >99%
16. Antigonish PC safe >99%
17. Cape Breton East PC safe >99%
18. Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River PC safe >99%
19. Eastern Shore PC safe >99%
20. Hants West PC safe >99%
21. Lunenburg West PC safe >99%
22. Sackville-Uniake PC safe >99%
23. Kings North PC safe >99%
24. Lunenburg PC safe >99%
25. Eastern Passage PC safe >99%
26. Chester-St. Margaret’s PC safe >99%
27. Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank PC safe >99%
28. Dartmouth East PC safe >99%
29. Preston PC safe >99%
30. Hants East PC safe >99%
31. Sackville-Cobequid PC safe >99%
32. Clare PC safe >99%
33. Northside-Westmount PC safe >99%
34. Hammonds Plains-Lucasville PC likely >99%
35. Kings South PC likely >99%
36. Bedford South PC likely 96%
37. Annapolis PC likely 95%
38. Cole Harbour PC likely 93%
39. Glace Bay-Dominion PC likely 90%
40. Yarmouth PC leaning 82%
41. Cole Harbour-Dartmouth PC leaning 71%
42. Clayton Park West Toss up LIB/PC 46%
43. Bedford Basin Toss up LIB/PC 40%
44. Timberlea-Prospect LIB leaning 11%
45. Halifax Armdale NDP likely 3%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Argyle PC safe
2. Pictou East PC safe
3. Queens PC safe
4. Cumberland South PC safe
5. Guysborough-Tracadie PC safe
6. Pictou West PC safe
7. Shelburne PC safe
8. Inverness PC safe
9. Pictou Centre PC safe
10. Victoria-The Lakes PC safe
11. Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley PC safe
12. Colchester North PC safe
13. Richmond PC safe
14. Kings West PC safe
15. Digby-Annapolis PC safe
16. Antigonish PC safe
17. Cape Breton East PC safe
18. Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River PC safe
19. Eastern Shore PC safe
20. Hants West PC safe
21. Lunenburg West PC safe
22. Sackville-Uniake PC safe
23. Kings North PC safe
24. Lunenburg PC safe
25. Eastern Passage PC safe
26. Chester-St. Margaret’s PC safe
27. Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank PC safe
28. Dartmouth East PC safe
29. Preston PC safe
30. Hants East PC safe
31. Sackville-Cobequid PC safe
32. Clare PC safe
33. Northside-Westmount PC safe
34. Hammonds Plains-Lucasville PC likely
35. Kings South PC likely
36. Bedford South PC likely
37. Annapolis PC likely
38. Cole Harbour PC likely
39. Glace Bay-Dominion PC likely
40. Yarmouth PC leaning
41. Cole Harbour-Dartmouth PC leaning
42. Clayton Park West Toss up LIB/PC
43. Bedford Basin Toss up LIB/PC
44. Timberlea-Prospect LIB leaning
45. Halifax Armdale NDP likely