Progressive Conservative Party
Last update: March 9, 2024
| Leader | Blaine Higgs |
| Popular vote in 2020 | 39.3% |
| Current vote projection | 36.2% ± 5.2% |
| Current number of MP's | 30 |
| Current seat projection | 24 ± 5 |
Vote projection | March 9, 2024
Seat projection | March 9, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | 2020 winner (transposed onto new map) |
Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Fundy—The Isles—Saint John Lorneville | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 2. | Quispamsis | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 3. | Albert—Riverview | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 4. | Rothesay | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 5. | Carleton—York | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 6. | Kings Centre | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 7. | Hampton—Fundy—St. Martin’s | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 8. | Sussex—Three Rivers | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 9. | Arcadia—Butternut Valley—Maple Hills | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 10. | Riverview | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 11. | Oromocto—Sunbury | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 12. | Saint Croix | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 13. | Hanwell—New Maryland | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 14. | Woodstock—Hartland | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 15. | Saint John West—Lancaster | |
PC likely | >99% |
| 16. | Fredericton—Grand Lake |  |
PC likely | >99% |
| 17. | Saint John East | |
PC likely | 99% |
| 18. | Miramichi West | |
PC likely | 98% |
| 19. | Fredericton—York | |
PC likely | 94% |
| 20. | Saint John Portland—Simonds | |
PC likely | 93% |
| 21. | Saint John Harbour | |
PC leaning | 87% |
| 22. | Moncton South | |
PC leaning | 77% |
| 23. | Fredericton North | |
Toss up PC/GRN | 67% |
| 24. | Moncton Northwest | |
Toss up LIB/PC | 60% |
| 25. | Fredericton—Lincoln | |
Toss up PC/GRN | 35% |
| 26. | Miramichi East | |
Toss up LIB/PC | 32% |
| 27. | Fredericton South—Silverwood | |
GRN leaning | 28% |
| 28. | Moncton Centre | |
LIB leaning | 25% |
| 29. | Carleton—Victoria | |
LIB leaning | 14% |
| 30. | Champdoré—Irishtown |  |
LIB likely | 2% |
