logo
logo
New brunswick

New Brunswick Liberal Association





Last update: March 9, 2024

LeaderSusan Holt
Popular vote in 202034.4%
Current vote projection39.5% ± 5.1%
Current number of MP's16
Current seat projection22 ± 4

Vote projection | March 9, 2024

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 34.5% ▼ 2020 34.4% 39.5% ± 5.1% ▼ Max. 44.6% ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Seat projection | March 9, 2024

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 17 ▼ 2020 17 seats 22 ▼ Majority 25 seats Max. 26 ▼ Probabilities % LIB

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Brunswick Liberal Association



Rank Electoral districts 2020 winner
(transposed onto new map)		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Shippagan—Les-Îles LIB safe >99%
2. Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières LIB safe >99%
3. Caraquet LIB safe >99%
4. Tracadie LIB safe >99%
5. Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit LIB safe >99%
6. Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston LIB safe >99%
7. Restigouche East LIB safe >99%
8. Restigouche West LIB safe >99%
9. Shediac Bay—Dieppe LIB safe >99%
10. Dieppe—Memramcook LIB safe >99%
11. Belle-Baie-Belledune LIB safe >99%
12. Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent LIB safe >99%
13. Grand Falls—Saint-Quentin LIB safe >99%
14. Miramichi Bay—Neguac LIB safe >99%
15. Shediac—Cap-Acadie LIB safe >99%
16. Bathurst LIB safe >99%
17. Moncton East LIB likely >99%
18. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB likely 98%
19. Carleton—Victoria LIB leaning 86%
20. Moncton Centre LIB leaning 74%
21. Miramichi East Toss up LIB/PC 68%
22. Kent North Toss up LIB/GRN 51%
23. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC 40%
24. Moncton South PC leaning 23%
25. Saint John Harbour PC leaning 12%
26. Saint John Portland—Simonds PC likely 7%
27. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up PC/GRN 6%
28. Miramichi West PC likely 2%
29. Saint John East PC likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Shippagan—Les-Îles LIB safe
2. Edmundston—Vallée-des-Rivières LIB safe
3. Caraquet LIB safe
4. Tracadie LIB safe
5. Hautes-Terre-Nepisiguit LIB safe
6. Madawaska-Les-Lacs—Edmundston LIB safe
7. Restigouche East LIB safe
8. Restigouche West LIB safe
9. Shediac Bay—Dieppe LIB safe
10. Dieppe—Memramcook LIB safe
11. Belle-Baie-Belledune LIB safe
12. Beausoleil—Grand-Bouctouche—Kent LIB safe
13. Grand Falls—Saint-Quentin LIB safe
14. Miramichi Bay—Neguac LIB safe
15. Shediac—Cap-Acadie LIB safe
16. Bathurst LIB safe
17. Moncton East LIB likely
18. Champdoré—Irishtown LIB likely
19. Carleton—Victoria LIB leaning
20. Moncton Centre LIB leaning
21. Miramichi East Toss up LIB/PC
22. Kent North Toss up LIB/GRN
23. Moncton Northwest Toss up LIB/PC
24. Moncton South PC leaning
25. Saint John Harbour PC leaning
26. Saint John Portland—Simonds PC likely
27. Fredericton—Lincoln Toss up PC/GRN
28. Miramichi West PC likely
29. Saint John East PC likely