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Manitoba


Turtle Mountain


MLA: Doyle Piwniuk (PC)


Latest projection: October 7, 2023

PC safe
Turtle Mountain 67% ± 5%▼ 27% ± 5%▲ 6% ± 3%▲ PC 2019 67.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 7, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Turtle Mountain >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | October 7, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | Turtle Mountain


PC Party of Manitoba Doyle Piwniuk
Manitoba NDP Lorna Canada-Vanegas Mesa
Manitoba Liberal Party Ali Tarar
Keystone Party Kevin Friesen


Popular vote projection | Turtle Mountain

LIB 6% ± 3% PC 67% ± 5% NDP 27% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Turtle Mountain 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP

Odds of winning | Turtle Mountain

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP

Recent electoral history | Turtle Mountain



2019 Proj. PC 67.5% 67% ± 5% GRN 14.9% 0% ± 0% NDP 10.9% 27% ± 5% LIB 6.7% 6% ± 3%