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British columbia


Juan de Fuca-Malahat


MLA: (New boundaries)
Latest projection: March 26, 2024

NDP safe
Juan de Fuca-Malahat 46% ± 7%▼ 26% ± 6% 17% ± 6%▲ 8% ± 4%▼ NDP 2020 52.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 26, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Juan de Fuca-Malahat >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 26, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Juan de Fuca-Malahat

BCU 8% ± 4% BCC 17% ± 6% NDP 46% ± 7% BCG 26% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Juan de Fuca-Malahat 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG

Odds of winning | Juan de Fuca-Malahat

BCU <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 BCU NDP BCG

Recent electoral history | Juan de Fuca-Malahat



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 38.0% 52.2% 46% ± 7% BCG 33.7% 33.4% 26% ± 6% BCU 26.2% 14.0% 8% ± 4% BCC 0.0% 0.0% 17% ± 6% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto new electoral map.