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Alberta


Morinville-St. Albert


MLA: Dale Nally, (UCP)


Latest projection: March 19, 2024

Likely UCP
Morinville-St. Albert 52% ± 7%▼ 44% ± 7% 3% ± 3%▲ UCP 2023 51.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Morinville-St. Albert 91% 9% <1% Odds of winning | March 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).



Popular vote projection | Morinville-St. Albert

UCP 52% ± 7% NDP 44% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Morinville-St. Albert 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP

Odds of winning | Morinville-St. Albert

UCP 91% NDP 9% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP

Recent electoral history | Morinville-St. Albert



2019 2023 Proj. UCP 50.0% 51.5% 52% ± 7% NDP 33.1% 45.4% 44% ± 7% ABP 14.7% 2.3% 3% ± 3% GPA 0.7% 0.9% 1% ± 1%