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Canada


Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner (federal)


MP: Glen Motz (CPC)


Latest projection: March 24, 2024

CPC safe hold
Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner 73% ± 6% 13% ± 5% 5% ± 3% 3% ± 2% IND 3% ± 3% CPC 2021 65.43% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 24, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 24, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner

LPC 5% ± 3% CPC 73% ± 6% NDP 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 68.8% 79.2% 65.43% 73% ± 6% NDP 9.7% 8.7% 14.03% 13% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 2.5% 9.3% 3% ± 3% LPC 17.9% 6.6% 7.23% 5% ± 3% GPC 2.6% 2.3% 1.49% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 3% ± 2% MAV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%