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Canada


Shefford (federal)


MP: Andréanne Larouche (BQ)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

BQ safe hold
Shefford 42% ± 7%▼ 23% ± 5%▲ 20% ± 5% 7% ± 3% 5% ± 4% BQ 2021 41.96% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Shefford >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Shefford

LPC 23% ± 5% CPC 20% ± 5% NDP 7% ± 3% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 42% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Shefford 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Shefford

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Shefford



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 22.2% 38.6% 41.96% 42% ± 7% LPC 39.0% 37.1% 33.41% 23% ± 5% CPC 12.8% 12.3% 12.13% 20% ± 5% NDP 23.7% 6.1% 5.33% 7% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 3.48% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.4% 4.6% 1.78% 5% ± 4%