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Canada


Salaberry–Suroît (federal)


MP: Claude Debellefeuille (BQ)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

BQ safe hold
Salaberry–Suroît 48% ± 8%▼ 19% ± 5% 19% ± 5%▲ 11% ± 4% BQ 2021 47.73% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Salaberry–Suroît >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Salaberry–Suroît

LPC 19% ± 5% CPC 19% ± 5% NDP 11% ± 4% BQ 48% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Salaberry–Suroît 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Salaberry–Suroît

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Salaberry–Suroît



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 28.4% 47.7% 47.73% 48% ± 8% LPC 29.2% 29.7% 27.22% 19% ± 5% CPC 10.0% 9.7% 12.3% 19% ± 5% NDP 30.4% 8.0% 7.45% 11% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.2% 3.63% 2% ± 2% GPC 1.4% 3.2% 0.0% 1% ± 1%