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Canada


Québec (federal)


MP: Jean-Yves Duclos (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
Québec 27% ± 7% 26% ± 6%▲ 25% ± 6%▼ 16% ± 5%▼ 5% ± 4% LPC 2021 35.41% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Québec 52%▼ 30%▲ 18%▼ Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Québec

LPC 26% ± 6% CPC 25% ± 6% NDP 16% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 27% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Québec 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Québec

LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 52% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Québec



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 28.9% 33.3% 35.41% 26% ± 6% BQ 18.8% 32.7% 29.03% 27% ± 7% CPC 21.8% 15.0% 17.97% 25% ± 6% NDP 27.0% 11.5% 13.03% 16% ± 5% GPC 2.9% 5.4% 2.3% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.2% 1.67% 1% ± 1%