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Canada


Pontiac (federal)


MP: Sophie Chatel (LPC)


Latest projection: March 24, 2024

LPC leaning hold
Pontiac 31% ± 6%▲ 28% ± 6%▼ 17% ± 5%▲ 15% ± 5%▲ 7% ± 4%▲ 3% ± 3% LPC 2021 43.44% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 24, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Pontiac 76%▲ 24%▼ <1% Odds of winning | March 24, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Pontiac

LPC 31% ± 6% CPC 28% ± 6% NDP 15% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% BQ 17% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Pontiac 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Pontiac

LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Pontiac



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 54.5% 48.9% 43.44% 31% ± 6% CPC 13.9% 16.8% 20.59% 28% ± 6% BQ 6.9% 16.1% 16.77% 17% ± 5% NDP 22.5% 10.5% 10.98% 15% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.3% 4.54% 3% ± 3% GPC 1.7% 6.1% 2.75% 7% ± 4%