logo
Canada


Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup (federal)


MP: Bernard Généreux (CPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

CPC safe hold
Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup 66% ± 7% 21% ± 6%▼ 9% ± 4%▲ 3% ± 2% CPC 2021 50.46% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup

LPC 9% ± 4% CPC 66% ± 7% BQ 21% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC BQ

Odds of winning | Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 29.0% 41.7% 50.46% 66% ± 7% BQ 16.1% 32.3% 26.2% 21% ± 6% LPC 28.4% 16.3% 17.51% 9% ± 4% NDP 24.2% 6.9% 3.34% 3% ± 2% GPC 1.7% 2.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0% ± 0%