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Canada


Louis-Hébert (federal)


MP: Joël Lightbound (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

CPC likely gain
Louis-Hébert 34% ± 7% 26% ± 6% 25% ± 6%▼ 9% ± 4% 6% ± 3% LPC 2021 38.36% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Louis-Hébert 92% 5%▲ 3%▼ Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Louis-Hébert

LPC 26% ± 6% CPC 34% ± 7% NDP 9% ± 4% GPC 6% ± 3% BQ 25% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Louis-Hébert 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Louis-Hébert

LPC 5% CPC 92% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 3% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Louis-Hébert



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.8% 40.5% 38.36% 26% ± 6% BQ 14.4% 28.0% 27.18% 25% ± 6% CPC 27.2% 17.6% 23.97% 34% ± 7% NDP 20.8% 7.9% 7.23% 9% ± 4% GPC 2.5% 4.0% 2.63% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.4% 0.63% 0% ± 0% PPC 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0% ± 0%