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Canada


Longueuil–Saint-Hubert (federal)


MP: Denis Trudel (BQ)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

BQ safe hold
Longueuil–Saint-Hubert 43% ± 8%▼ 25% ± 6% 12% ± 4% 11% ± 4% 7% ± 4% BQ 2021 41.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Longueuil–Saint-Hubert >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 11% ± 4% NDP 12% ± 4% GPC 7% ± 4% BQ 43% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 27.3% 38.5% 41.2% 43% ± 8% LPC 30.0% 34.2% 38.32% 25% ± 6% NDP 31.2% 8.5% 7.95% 12% ± 4% CPC 8.7% 6.3% 6.93% 11% ± 4% GPC 2.5% 11.3% 2.79% 7% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 2.37% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0% ± 0%