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Canada


Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne (federal)


MP: Sherry Romanado (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

BQ leaning gain
Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne 35% ± 7%▼ 31% ± 6%▲ 14% ± 5% 12% ± 4% 6% ± 3% LPC 2021 40.27% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne 75%▼ 25%▲ <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne

LPC 31% ± 6% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 6% ± 3% BQ 35% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne

LPC 25% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 75% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 35.4% 39.0% 40.27% 31% ± 6% BQ 27.0% 36.5% 35.35% 35% ± 7% NDP 24.1% 10.3% 10.33% 14% ± 5% CPC 9.6% 7.4% 8.41% 12% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.1% 2.94% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.9% 5.8% 2.42% 6% ± 3%