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Canada


Châteauguay–Lacolle (federal)


MP: Brenda Shanahan (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

BQ likely gain
Châteauguay–Lacolle 37% ± 8%▼ 28% ± 6% 17% ± 5%▲ 11% ± 5% 5% ± 4%▲ LPC 2021 37.03% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Châteauguay–Lacolle 94%▼ 6%▲ <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Châteauguay–Lacolle

LPC 28% ± 6% CPC 17% ± 5% NDP 11% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 37% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Châteauguay–Lacolle 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Châteauguay–Lacolle

LPC 6% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 94% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Châteauguay–Lacolle



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.1% 38.4% 37.03% 28% ± 6% BQ 24.4% 37.2% 37.01% 37% ± 8% CPC 11.2% 11.2% 11.38% 17% ± 5% NDP 23.1% 7.6% 7.71% 11% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.1% 3.74% 2% ± 2% GPC 1.9% 3.7% 1.65% 5% ± 4%