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Canada


Ahuntsic-Cartierville (federal)


MP: Mélanie Joly (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

LPC safe hold
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 44% ± 7%▲ 20% ± 5%▼ 16% ± 5% 12% ± 4% 7% ± 4% LPC 2021 52.35% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Ahuntsic-Cartierville >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ahuntsic-Cartierville

LPC 44% ± 7% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 16% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% BQ 20% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Ahuntsic-Cartierville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Ahuntsic-Cartierville

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Ahuntsic-Cartierville



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.8% 52.4% 52.35% 44% ± 7% BQ 13.2% 21.7% 22.04% 20% ± 5% NDP 30.0% 11.4% 11.57% 16% ± 5% CPC 7.3% 7.3% 8.43% 12% ± 4% GPC 2.1% 6.1% 3.0% 7% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.1% 2.61% 2% ± 2%