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Canada


Saint John–Rothesay (federal)


MP: Wayne Long (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

CPC leaning gain
Saint John–Rothesay 43% ± 8% 36% ± 7% 14% ± 5% 4% ± 3% 3% ± 3% LPC 2021 46.38% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Saint John–Rothesay 87% 13% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint John–Rothesay

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 43% ± 8% NDP 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Saint John–Rothesay 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Saint John–Rothesay

LPC 13% CPC 87% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Saint John–Rothesay



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.8% 37.4% 46.38% 36% ± 7% CPC 30.5% 34.0% 32.88% 43% ± 8% NDP 17.5% 12.2% 12.87% 14% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 3.1% 5.34% 3% ± 3% GPC 3.1% 10.1% 2.53% 4% ± 3% IND 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0% ± 0%