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Canada


Fredericton (federal)


MP: Jenica Atwin (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

CPC safe gain
Fredericton 45% ± 8%▼ 30% ± 7% 13% ± 5% 12% ± 5% LPC 2021 37.03% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Fredericton >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Fredericton

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 45% ± 8% NDP 13% ± 5% GPC 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Fredericton

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Fredericton



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.3% 27.4% 37.03% 30% ± 7% CPC 28.4% 30.4% 35.89% 45% ± 8% GPC 12.4% 33.7% 12.86% 12% ± 5% NDP 9.9% 6.0% 12.63% 13% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0% ± 0% PPC 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0% ± 0%