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Canada


South Shore–St. Margarets (federal)


MP: Rick Perkins (CPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

CPC safe hold
South Shore–St. Margarets 51% ± 7%▼ 25% ± 6% 20% ± 5% 4% ± 3% CPC 2021 40.93% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% South Shore–St. Margarets >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | South Shore–St. Margarets

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 51% ± 7% NDP 20% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | South Shore–St. Margarets 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | South Shore–St. Margarets

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | South Shore–St. Margarets



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 22.6% 28.1% 40.93% 51% ± 7% LPC 56.9% 41.7% 37.09% 25% ± 6% NDP 16.8% 15.9% 19.1% 20% ± 5% GPC 2.9% 11.6% 2.87% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0% ± 0% IND 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%