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Canada


Halifax (federal)


MP: Andy Fillmore (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

Toss up LPC/NDP
Halifax 39% ± 7% 38% ± 7% 18% ± 5% 4% ± 3% LPC 2021 42.62% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Halifax 56%▼ 44%▲ <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Halifax

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 39% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Halifax 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Halifax

LPC 44% CPC <1% NDP 56% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Halifax



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 51.7% 42.5% 42.62% 38% ± 7% NDP 36.1% 30.0% 39.68% 39% ± 7% CPC 8.6% 11.6% 13.02% 18% ± 5% GPC 3.3% 14.4% 2.23% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 1.1% 2.07% 1% ± 1%