Ontario | 338Canada

Popular vote projection | Ontario

Seat projection | Ontario

List of electoral districts

338Canada federal projection | Ontario, 122 districts

Latest update: April 21, 2024

This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Projected ahead

Last election (2021)

Latest update: April 21, 2024

Electoral district	Current party	Latest projection
35001 Ajax		LPC likely hold
35002 Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke		CPC safe hold
35003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill		CPC safe gain
35004 Barrie South—Innisfil		CPC safe hold
35005 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte		CPC safe hold
35006 Bay of Quinte		CPC safe hold
35007 Beaches—East York		LPC safe hold
35008 Bowmanville—Oshawa North		CPC safe hold
35009 Brampton Centre		Toss up LPC/CPC
35010 Brampton—Chinguacousy Park		Toss up LPC/CPC
35011 Brampton East		LPC leaning hold
35012 Brampton North—Caledon		Toss up LPC/CPC
35013 Brampton South		LPC leaning hold
35014 Brampton West		LPC leaning hold
35015 Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations		CPC safe hold
35016 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		CPC safe hold
35017 Burlington		CPC likely gain
35018 Burlington North—Milton West		CPC likely gain
35019 Cambridge		CPC safe gain
35020 Carleton		CPC safe hold
35021 Chatham-Kent—Leamington		CPC safe hold
35022 Davenport		Toss up LPC/NDP
35023 Don Valley North		Toss up LPC/CPC
35024 Don Valley West		LPC leaning hold
35025 Dufferin—Caledon		CPC safe hold
35026 Eglinton—Lawrence		CPC likely gain
35027 Elgin—St. Thomas—London South		CPC safe hold
35028 Essex		CPC safe hold
35029 Etobicoke Centre		CPC leaning gain
35030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore		CPC leaning gain
35031 Etobicoke North		LPC likely hold
35032 Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North		CPC safe hold
35033 Guelph		Toss up LPC/CPC
35034 Haldimand—Norfolk		CPC safe hold
35035 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes		CPC safe hold
35036 Hamilton Centre		NDP safe hold
35037 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		CPC likely gain
35038 Hamilton Mountain		Toss up CPC/NDP
35039 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas		CPC leaning gain
35040 Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga		CPC safe hold
35041 Humber River—Black Creek		LPC safe hold
35042 Huron—Bruce		CPC safe hold
35043 Kanata		CPC likely gain
35044 Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk		Toss up CPC/NDP
35045 Kenora—Kiiwetinoong		CPC safe hold
35046 Kingston and the Islands		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35047 King—Vaughan		CPC safe hold
35048 Kitchener Centre		GPC likely hold
35049 Kitchener—Conestoga		CPC safe gain
35050 Kitchener South—Hespeler		CPC safe gain
35051 Lanark—Frontenac		CPC safe hold
35052 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes		CPC safe hold
35053 London Centre		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35054 London—Fanshawe		NDP likely hold
35055 London West		CPC safe gain
35056 Markham—Stouffville		CPC leaning gain
35057 Markham—Thornhill		LPC likely hold
35058 Markham—Unionville		CPC likely gain
35059 Middlesex—London		CPC safe hold
35060 Milton East—Halton Hills South		CPC safe gain
35061 Mississauga Centre		LPC leaning hold
35062 Mississauga East—Cooksville		Toss up LPC/CPC
35063 Mississauga—Erin Mills		Toss up LPC/CPC
35064 Mississauga—Lakeshore		CPC likely gain
35065 Mississauga—Malton		Toss up LPC/CPC
35066 Mississauga—Streetsville		CPC leaning gain
35067 Nepean		CPC leaning gain
35068 Newmarket—Aurora		CPC likely gain
35069 New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury		CPC safe hold
35070 Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake		CPC safe hold
35071 Niagara South		CPC safe hold
35072 Niagara West		CPC safe hold
35073 Nipissing—Timiskaming		CPC likely gain
35074 Northumberland—Clarke		CPC safe hold
35075 Oakville East		CPC likely gain
35076 Oakville West		CPC likely gain
35077 Orléans		LPC leaning hold
35078 Oshawa		CPC safe hold
35079 Ottawa Centre		Toss up LPC/NDP
35080 Ottawa South		LPC leaning hold
35081 Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester		LPC likely hold
35082 Ottawa West—Nepean		Toss up LPC/CPC
35083 Oxford		CPC safe hold
35084 Parry Sound—Muskoka		CPC safe hold
35085 Perth—Wellington		CPC safe hold
35086 Peterborough		CPC safe hold
35087 Pickering—Brooklin		CPC leaning gain
35088 Prescott—Russell—Cumberland		CPC leaning gain
35089 Richmond Hill South		CPC likely gain
35090 Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong		CPC safe hold
35091 Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma		CPC safe hold
35092 Scarborough—Agincourt		LPC leaning hold
35093 Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East		LPC likely hold
35094 Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park		LPC safe hold
35095 Scarborough North		LPC safe hold
35096 Scarborough Southwest		LPC safe hold
35097 Scarborough—Woburn		LPC safe hold
35098 Simcoe—Grey		CPC safe hold
35099 Simcoe North		CPC safe hold
35100 Spadina—Harbourfront		Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35101 St. Catharines		CPC likely gain
35102 Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry		CPC safe hold
35103 Sudbury		CPC likely gain
35104 Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt		CPC leaning gain
35105 Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park		NDP leaning gain
35106 Thornhill		CPC safe hold
35107 Thunder Bay—Rainy River		CPC likely gain
35108 Thunder Bay—Superior North		Toss up LPC/CPC
35109 Toronto Centre		LPC likely hold
35110 Toronto—Danforth		Toss up LPC/NDP
35111 Toronto—St. Paul’s		LPC leaning hold
35112 University—Rosedale		LPC likely hold
35113 Vaughan—Woodbridge		CPC likely gain
35114 Waterloo		Toss up LPC/CPC
35115 Wellington—Halton Hills North		CPC safe hold
35116 Whitby		CPC likely gain
35117 Willowdale		CPC leaning gain
35118 Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore		CPC leaning gain
35119 Windsor West		NDP likely hold
35120 York Centre		CPC likely gain
35121 York—Durham		CPC safe hold
35122 York South—Weston—Etobicoke		LPC likely hold