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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: April 21, 2024

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection25.5% ± 3.3%
Current number of MP's157
Current seat projection74 [51-102]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 8.9 seat/% 74 [51-102] 25% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 74 [51-102] April 21, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 4/11 NB 4/10 QC 25/78 ON 28/122 MB 4/14 SK 1/14 AB 1/37 BC 4/43 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024

18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 22.2% ▼ 25.5% ± 3.3% ▼ Max. 28.7% ▼ 2021 32.6% Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | April 21, 2024

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 51 ▼ 74 ▼ Max. 102 ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe hold >99%
2. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe hold >99%
3. Scarborough North LPC safe hold >99%
4. Bourassa LPC safe hold >99%
5. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold >99%
6. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold >99%
7. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe hold >99%
8. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe hold >99%
9. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold >99%
10. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold >99%
11. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold >99%
12. Beaches—East York LPC safe hold >99%
13. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe hold >99%
14. Vimy LPC safe hold >99%
15. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold >99%
16. Mount Royal LPC safe hold >99%
17. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe hold >99%
18. Surrey Newton LPC safe hold >99%
19. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe hold >99%
20. Laval—Les-Îles LPC safe hold >99%
21. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold >99%
22. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe hold >99%
23. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold >99%
24. Beauséjour LPC safe hold >99%
25. Papineau LPC safe hold >99%
26. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe hold >99%
27. Vaudreuil LPC safe hold >99%
28. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold >99%
29. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 99%
30. Gatineau LPC likely hold 99%
31. Cape Spear LPC likely hold 99%
32. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely hold 99%
33. Outremont LPC likely hold 99%
34. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely hold 99%
35. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely hold 98%
36. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold 98%
37. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold 98%
38. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC likely hold 97%
39. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely hold 97%
40. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely hold 96%
41. University—Rosedale LPC likely hold 95%
42. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely hold 95%
43. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold 94%
44. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely hold 92%
45. Ajax LPC likely hold 91%
46. Surrey Centre LPC leaning hold 90%
47. Halifax West LPC leaning hold 90%
48. Brampton West LPC leaning hold 89%
49. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold 88%
50. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC leaning hold 85%
51. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC leaning hold 85%
52. Don Valley West LPC leaning hold 84%
53. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold 79%
54. Orléans LPC leaning hold 77%
55. Brampton East LPC leaning hold 77%
56. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC leaning hold 75%
57. Brampton South LPC leaning hold 75%
58. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold 75%
59. Ottawa South LPC leaning hold 75%
60. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning hold 74%
61. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning hold 71%
62. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC leaning hold 71%
63. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 69%
64. Madawaska—Restigouche Toss up LPC/CPC 68%
65. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
66. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
67. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP 61%
68. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 61%
69. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 59%
70. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 55%
71. Sackville—Bedford—Preston Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
72. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
73. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
74. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 50%
75. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
76. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC 47%
77. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 45%
78. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC 42%
79. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
80. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC 39%
81. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 36%
82. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
83. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 35%
84. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
85. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ 34%
86. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
87. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
88. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 29%
89. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning gain 29%
90. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning gain 26%
91. Québec Centre BQ leaning gain 25%
92. Sherbrooke BQ leaning gain 23%
93. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain 22%
94. Charlottetown CPC leaning gain 22%
95. Avalon CPC leaning gain 22%
96. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning gain 21%
97. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning gain 21%
98. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 21%
99. Egmont CPC leaning gain 20%
100. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC leaning gain 20%
101. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP leaning gain 18%
102. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC leaning gain 18%
103. Willowdale CPC leaning gain 17%
104. Labrador CPC leaning gain 17%
105. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning gain 16%
106. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain 16%
107. Vancouver Quadra CPC leaning gain 15%
108. Etobicoke Centre CPC leaning gain 15%
109. London Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 13%
110. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning gain 13%
111. Kings—Hants CPC leaning gain 13%
112. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 12%
113. Nepean CPC leaning gain 11%
114. Compton—Stanstead BQ leaning gain 11%
115. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain 11%
116. Winnipeg West CPC leaning hold 10%
117. Whitby CPC likely gain 7%
118. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning hold 7%
119. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely gain 6%
120. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely hold 6%
121. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC likely gain 5%
122. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely gain 5%
123. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely hold 5%
124. Central Nova CPC likely gain 5%
125. York Centre CPC likely gain 4%
126. Malpeque CPC likely gain 4%
127. Richmond Hill South CPC likely gain 4%
128. Oakville West CPC likely gain 4%
129. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC likely gain 3%
130. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP 3%
131. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely gain 3%
132. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely hold 2%
133. Nunavut NDP likely hold 2%
134. Burlington CPC likely gain 2%
135. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain 2%
136. Delta CPC likely gain 2%
137. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP 2%
138. Sudbury CPC likely gain 2%
139. Kanata CPC likely gain 1%
140. Oakville East CPC likely gain 1%
141. Richmond East—Steveston CPC likely gain 1%
142. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC likely gain 1%
143. Markham—Unionville CPC likely gain 1%
144. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC likely gain 1%
145. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC likely gain 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
2. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe hold
3. Scarborough North LPC safe hold
4. Bourassa LPC safe hold
5. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
6. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
7. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe hold
8. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe hold
9. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
10. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
11. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
12. Beaches—East York LPC safe hold
13. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe hold
14. Vimy LPC safe hold
15. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
16. Mount Royal LPC safe hold
17. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe hold
18. Surrey Newton LPC safe hold
19. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe hold
20. Laval—Les-Îles LPC safe hold
21. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold
22. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe hold
23. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
24. Beauséjour LPC safe hold
25. Papineau LPC safe hold
26. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe hold
27. Vaudreuil LPC safe hold
28. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold
29. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
30. Gatineau LPC likely hold
31. Cape Spear LPC likely hold
32. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely hold
33. Outremont LPC likely hold
34. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely hold
35. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely hold
36. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold
37. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
38. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC likely hold
39. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely hold
40. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely hold
41. University—Rosedale LPC likely hold
42. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely hold
43. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold
44. Moncton—Dieppe LPC likely hold
45. Ajax LPC likely hold
46. Surrey Centre LPC leaning hold
47. Halifax West LPC leaning hold
48. Brampton West LPC leaning hold
49. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold
50. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC leaning hold
51. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC leaning hold
52. Don Valley West LPC leaning hold
53. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
54. Orléans LPC leaning hold
55. Brampton East LPC leaning hold
56. Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC leaning hold
57. Brampton South LPC leaning hold
58. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold
59. Ottawa South LPC leaning hold
60. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning hold
61. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning hold
62. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC leaning hold
63. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
64. Madawaska—Restigouche Toss up LPC/CPC
65. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
66. Calgary McKnight Toss up LPC/CPC
67. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP
68. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
69. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
70. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
71. Sackville—Bedford—Preston Toss up LPC/CPC
72. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
73. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
74. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
75. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
76. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
77. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
78. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
79. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC
80. Brampton North—Caledon Toss up LPC/CPC
81. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
82. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
83. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
84. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up LPC/CPC
85. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
86. Brampton Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
87. Fleetwood—Port Kells Toss up LPC/CPC
88. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
89. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning gain
90. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning gain
91. Québec Centre BQ leaning gain
92. Sherbrooke BQ leaning gain
93. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain
94. Charlottetown CPC leaning gain
95. Avalon CPC leaning gain
96. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning gain
97. Burnaby North—Seymour CPC leaning gain
98. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
99. Egmont CPC leaning gain
100. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC leaning gain
101. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP leaning gain
102. North Vancouver—Capilano CPC leaning gain
103. Willowdale CPC leaning gain
104. Labrador CPC leaning gain
105. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning gain
106. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain
107. Vancouver Quadra CPC leaning gain
108. Etobicoke Centre CPC leaning gain
109. London Centre Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
110. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC leaning gain
111. Kings—Hants CPC leaning gain
112. Spadina—Harbourfront Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
113. Nepean CPC leaning gain
114. Compton—Stanstead BQ leaning gain
115. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain
116. Winnipeg West CPC leaning hold
117. Whitby CPC likely gain
118. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning hold
119. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely gain
120. Edmonton Southeast CPC likely hold
121. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC likely gain
122. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
123. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely hold
124. Central Nova CPC likely gain
125. York Centre CPC likely gain
126. Malpeque CPC likely gain
127. Richmond Hill South CPC likely gain
128. Oakville West CPC likely gain
129. Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish CPC likely gain
130. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP
131. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely gain
132. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely hold
133. Nunavut NDP likely hold
134. Burlington CPC likely gain
135. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain
136. Delta CPC likely gain
137. Burnaby Central Toss up CPC/NDP
138. Sudbury CPC likely gain
139. Kanata CPC likely gain
140. Oakville East CPC likely gain
141. Richmond East—Steveston CPC likely gain
142. Sydney—Glace Bay CPC likely gain
143. Markham—Unionville CPC likely gain
144. Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC likely gain
145. Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC likely gain