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Canada

Conservative Party of Canada



Latest update: March 24, 2024

LeaderPierre Poilievre
National popular vote in 202133.7%
Current vote projection41.9% ± 3.9%
Current number of MP's118
Current seat projection210 [183-231]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 24, 2024 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% Majority: 170 seats Vote efficiency | CPC 338Canada ©2023 6.5 seat/% 210 [183-231] 42% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × CPC 210 [183-231] March 24, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 5/7 PEI 4/4 NS 8/11 NB 6/10 QC 13/78 ON 89/121 MB 7/14 SK 14/14 AB 32/34 BC 31/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | March 24, 2024

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 33.7% Min. 38.0% 41.9% ± 3.9% Max. 45.8% Probabilities % CPC

Seat projection | March 24, 2024

152 162 172 182 192 202 212 222 232 242 252 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Majority 170 seats Min. 183 210 Max. 231 Probabilities % CPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Conservative Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold >99%
2. Bow River CPC safe hold >99%
3. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold >99%
4. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold >99%
5. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold >99%
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold >99%
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold >99%
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold >99%
9. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold >99%
10. Yellowhead CPC safe hold >99%
11. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold >99%
12. Foothills CPC safe hold >99%
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold >99%
14. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold >99%
15. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold >99%
16. Prince Albert CPC safe hold >99%
17. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold >99%
18. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold >99%
19. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold >99%
20. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold >99%
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold >99%
22. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold >99%
23. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold >99%
24. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold >99%
25. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold >99%
26. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold >99%
27. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold >99%
28. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold >99%
29. Beauce CPC safe hold >99%
30. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold >99%
31. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold >99%
32. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold >99%
33. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold >99%
34. Thornhill CPC safe hold >99%
35. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold >99%
36. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold >99%
37. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold >99%
38. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold >99%
39. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold >99%
40. Carleton CPC safe hold >99%
41. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold >99%
42. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold >99%
43. Lethbridge CPC safe hold >99%
44. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold >99%
45. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold >99%
46. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold >99%
47. West Nova CPC safe hold >99%
48. Abbotsford CPC safe hold >99%
49. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold >99%
50. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold >99%
51. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold >99%
52. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold >99%
53. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold >99%
54. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold >99%
55. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold >99%
56. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold >99%
57. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold >99%
58. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC safe hold >99%
59. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold >99%
60. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold >99%
61. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold >99%
62. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold >99%
63. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold >99%
64. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold >99%
65. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold >99%
66. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold >99%
67. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
68. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold >99%
69. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold >99%
70. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold >99%
71. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold >99%
72. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold >99%
73. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold >99%
74. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold >99%
75. Cumberland–Colchester CPC safe hold >99%
76. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold >99%
77. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold >99%
78. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold >99%
79. Niagara West CPC safe hold >99%
80. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe hold >99%
81. Durham CPC safe hold >99%
82. King–Vaughan CPC safe hold >99%
83. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold >99%
84. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold >99%
85. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold >99%
86. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold >99%
87. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC safe hold >99%
88. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold >99%
89. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold >99%
90. Simcoe North CPC safe hold >99%
91. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold >99%
92. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold >99%
93. Provencher CPC safe hold >99%
94. Oxford CPC safe hold >99%
95. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold >99%
96. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold >99%
97. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold >99%
98. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold >99%
99. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC safe hold >99%
100. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold >99%
101. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold >99%
102. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold >99%
103. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold >99%
104. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold >99%
105. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC safe hold >99%
106. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC safe hold >99%
107. Edmonton West CPC safe hold >99%
108. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC safe gain >99%
109. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC safe hold >99%
110. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC safe gain >99%
111. Sault Ste. Marie CPC safe gain >99%
112. Oshawa CPC safe hold >99%
113. Cambridge CPC safe gain >99%
114. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC safe hold >99%
115. St. Catharines CPC safe gain >99%
116. Kenora CPC safe hold >99%
117. Essex CPC safe hold >99%
118. Kanata–Carleton CPC safe gain >99%
119. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold >99%
120. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold >99%
121. Markham–Unionville CPC safe gain >99%
122. Niagara Centre CPC safe gain >99%
123. London West CPC safe gain >99%
124. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold >99%
125. Sydney–Victoria CPC safe gain >99%
126. Fredericton CPC safe gain >99%
127. Newmarket–Aurora CPC safe gain >99%
128. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity CPC safe gain >99%
129. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC safe gain >99%
130. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC safe gain >99%
131. Long Range Mountains CPC safe gain >99%
132. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC safe gain >99%
133. Oakville CPC safe gain >99%
134. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain 99%
135. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC likely gain 99%
136. Burlington CPC likely gain 99%
137. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain 99%
138. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain 99%
139. Whitby CPC likely gain 99%
140. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain 99%
141. Richmond Centre CPC likely gain 99%
142. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain 99%
143. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 99%
144. York Centre CPC likely gain 99%
145. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold 99%
146. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain 98%
147. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain 98%
148. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold 98%
149. Nanaimo–Ladysmith CPC likely gain 98%
150. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain 98%
151. Nepean CPC likely gain 98%
152. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain 98%
153. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain 98%
154. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain 98%
155. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain 98%
156. Sudbury CPC likely gain 97%
157. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain 97%
158. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold 97%
159. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain 96%
160. London North Centre CPC likely gain 96%
161. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain 96%
162. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain 95%
163. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain 95%
164. Malpeque CPC likely gain 95%
165. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain 95%
166. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 94%
167. Edmonton Centre CPC likely gain 94%
168. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain 94%
169. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 94%
170. Markham–Stouffville CPC likely gain 93%
171. Waterloo CPC likely gain 93%
172. Don Valley West CPC likely gain 93%
173. Avalon CPC likely gain 92%
174. Central Nova CPC likely gain 92%
175. Saint John–Rothesay CPC likely gain 91%
176. Willowdale CPC likely gain 91%
177. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain 91%
178. Delta CPC likely gain 91%
179. Trois-Rivières CPC likely gain 91%
180. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain 90%
181. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain 90%
182. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain 89%
183. Guelph CPC leaning gain 88%
184. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain 88%
185. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain 86%
186. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain 84%
187. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain 84%
188. Labrador CPC leaning gain 83%
189. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain 82%
190. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning gain 79%
191. Egmont CPC leaning gain 78%
192. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain 78%
193. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain 77%
194. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain 76%
195. Charlottetown CPC leaning gain 76%
196. Orléans CPC leaning gain 76%
197. Milton CPC leaning gain 75%
198. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain 74%
199. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook CPC leaning gain 73%
200. North Vancouver CPC leaning gain 70%
201. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC 67%
202. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 67%
203. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 64%
204. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 63%
205. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 62%
206. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC 58%
207. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
208. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC 54%
209. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
210. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP 49%
211. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC 49%
212. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 47%
213. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 47%
214. Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
215. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
216. Toronto–St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC 36%
217. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 33%
218. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ 33%
219. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
220. Brampton East LPC leaning hold 29%
221. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC 27%
222. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold 26%
223. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold 26%
224. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold 26%
225. Pontiac LPC leaning hold 24%
226. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold 21%
227. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold 17%
228. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold 16%
229. Ajax LPC leaning hold 13%
230. Compton–Stanstead BQ leaning gain 13%
231. Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold 13%
232. Halifax West LPC leaning hold 8%
233. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold 7%
234. Vancouver South LPC likely hold 7%
235. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold 7%
236. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ 7%
237. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold 6%
238. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold 5%
239. Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold 4%
240. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 4%
241. Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up LPC/BQ 4%
242. University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold 4%
243. Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain 3%
244. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold 3%
245. Beauséjour LPC likely hold 2%
246. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold 1%
247. Don Valley East LPC likely hold 1%
248. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
2. Bow River CPC safe hold
3. Fort McMurray–Cold Lake CPC safe hold
4. Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
5. Battle River–Crowfoot CPC safe hold
6. Lakeland CPC safe hold
7. Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold
8. Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CPC safe hold
9. Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
10. Yellowhead CPC safe hold
11. Red Deer–Lacombe CPC safe hold
12. Foothills CPC safe hold
13. Red Deer–Mountain View CPC safe hold
14. Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
15. Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CPC safe hold
16. Prince Albert CPC safe hold
17. Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
18. Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
19. Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies CPC safe hold
20. Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry CPC safe hold
21. Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
22. Sturgeon River–Parkland CPC safe hold
23. Peace River–Westlock CPC safe hold
24. Calgary Shepard CPC safe hold
25. Huron–Bruce CPC safe hold
26. Calgary Heritage CPC safe hold
27. Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
28. Calgary Midnapore CPC safe hold
29. Beauce CPC safe hold
30. Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock CPC safe hold
31. Wellington–Halton Hills CPC safe hold
32. Haldimand–Norfolk CPC safe hold
33. Cariboo–Prince George CPC safe hold
34. Thornhill CPC safe hold
35. Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
36. Perth–Wellington CPC safe hold
37. Barrie–Innisfil CPC safe hold
38. Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe hold
39. Tobique–Mactaquac CPC safe hold
40. Carleton CPC safe hold
41. Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
42. Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
43. Lethbridge CPC safe hold
44. Banff–Airdrie CPC safe hold
45. Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
46. Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
47. West Nova CPC safe hold
48. Abbotsford CPC safe hold
49. Elgin–Middlesex–London CPC safe hold
50. Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
51. Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe hold
52. Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound CPC safe hold
53. Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
54. Edmonton–Wetaskiwin CPC safe hold
55. New Brunswick Southwest CPC safe hold
56. Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe hold
57. York–Simcoe CPC safe hold
58. Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame CPC safe hold
59. Langley–Aldergrove CPC safe hold
60. Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke CPC safe hold
61. Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CPC safe hold
62. Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola CPC safe hold
63. Fundy Royal CPC safe hold
64. Lambton–Kent–Middlesex CPC safe hold
65. Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston CPC safe hold
66. North Okanagan–Shuswap CPC safe hold
67. Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC safe hold
68. Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte CPC safe hold
69. Simcoe–Grey CPC safe hold
70. Chilliwack–Hope CPC safe hold
71. Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
72. Kelowna–Lake Country CPC safe hold
73. Sarnia–Lambton CPC safe hold
74. Hastings–Lennox and Addington CPC safe hold
75. Cumberland–Colchester CPC safe hold
76. Dufferin–Caledon CPC safe hold
77. Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
78. Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold
79. Niagara West CPC safe hold
80. South Surrey–White Rock CPC safe hold
81. Durham CPC safe hold
82. King–Vaughan CPC safe hold
83. Parry Sound–Muskoka CPC safe hold
84. Northumberland–Peterborough South CPC safe hold
85. Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon CPC safe hold
86. Kootenay–Columbia CPC safe hold
87. Miramichi–Grand Lake CPC safe hold
88. Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold
89. Chatham-Kent–Leamington CPC safe hold
90. Simcoe North CPC safe hold
91. Calgary Centre CPC safe hold
92. Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo CPC safe hold
93. Provencher CPC safe hold
94. Oxford CPC safe hold
95. Bay of Quinte CPC safe hold
96. Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
97. Brantford–Brant CPC safe hold
98. Flamborough–Glanbrook CPC safe hold
99. South Shore–St. Margarets CPC safe hold
100. Peterborough–Kawartha CPC safe hold
101. Calgary Confederation CPC safe hold
102. Calgary Forest Lawn CPC safe hold
103. Niagara Falls CPC safe hold
104. Edmonton Riverbend CPC safe hold
105. Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge CPC safe hold
106. Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC safe hold
107. Edmonton West CPC safe hold
108. Kitchener–Conestoga CPC safe gain
109. Edmonton Mill Woods CPC safe hold
110. Kitchener South–Hespeler CPC safe gain
111. Sault Ste. Marie CPC safe gain
112. Oshawa CPC safe hold
113. Cambridge CPC safe gain
114. Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC safe hold
115. St. Catharines CPC safe gain
116. Kenora CPC safe hold
117. Essex CPC safe hold
118. Kanata–Carleton CPC safe gain
119. Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold
120. St. Albert–Edmonton CPC safe hold
121. Markham–Unionville CPC safe gain
122. Niagara Centre CPC safe gain
123. London West CPC safe gain
124. Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold
125. Sydney–Victoria CPC safe gain
126. Fredericton CPC safe gain
127. Newmarket–Aurora CPC safe gain
128. Bonavista–Burin–Trinity CPC safe gain
129. Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill CPC safe gain
130. Vaughan–Woodbridge CPC safe gain
131. Long Range Mountains CPC safe gain
132. Nipissing–Timiskaming CPC safe gain
133. Oakville CPC safe gain
134. Glengarry–Prescott–Russell CPC likely gain
135. Cloverdale–Langley City CPC likely gain
136. Burlington CPC likely gain
137. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain
138. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain
139. Whitby CPC likely gain
140. South Okanagan–West Kootenay CPC likely gain
141. Richmond Centre CPC likely gain
142. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain
143. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
144. York Centre CPC likely gain
145. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
146. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain
147. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain
148. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold
149. Nanaimo–Ladysmith CPC likely gain
150. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain
151. Nepean CPC likely gain
152. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain
153. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain
154. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
155. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain
156. Sudbury CPC likely gain
157. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain
158. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
159. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain
160. London North Centre CPC likely gain
161. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain
162. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain
163. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain
164. Malpeque CPC likely gain
165. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain
166. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
167. Edmonton Centre CPC likely gain
168. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain
169. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
170. Markham–Stouffville CPC likely gain
171. Waterloo CPC likely gain
172. Don Valley West CPC likely gain
173. Avalon CPC likely gain
174. Central Nova CPC likely gain
175. Saint John–Rothesay CPC likely gain
176. Willowdale CPC likely gain
177. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain
178. Delta CPC likely gain
179. Trois-Rivières CPC likely gain
180. Beauport–Limoilou CPC leaning gain
181. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain
182. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain
183. Guelph CPC leaning gain
184. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain
185. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain
186. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain
187. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain
188. Labrador CPC leaning gain
189. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain
190. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning gain
191. Egmont CPC leaning gain
192. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain
193. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain
194. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain
195. Charlottetown CPC leaning gain
196. Orléans CPC leaning gain
197. Milton CPC leaning gain
198. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain
199. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook CPC leaning gain
200. North Vancouver CPC leaning gain
201. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC
202. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
203. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP
204. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
205. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
206. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC
207. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
208. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC
209. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
210. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP
211. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
212. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
213. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
214. Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
215. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
216. Toronto–St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
217. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP
218. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ
219. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
220. Brampton East LPC leaning hold
221. Vancouver Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
222. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold
223. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
224. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold
225. Pontiac LPC leaning hold
226. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold
227. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold
228. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold
229. Ajax LPC leaning hold
230. Compton–Stanstead BQ leaning gain
231. Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold
232. Halifax West LPC leaning hold
233. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold
234. Vancouver South LPC likely hold
235. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold
236. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ
237. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold
238. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
239. Kitchener Centre GPC likely hold
240. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
241. Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up LPC/BQ
242. University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold
243. Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain
244. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold
245. Beauséjour LPC likely hold
246. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold
247. Don Valley East LPC likely hold
248. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain