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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: April 21, 2024

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection8.1% ± 0.9% (QC: 34.0% ± 4.7%)
Current number of MP's34
Current seat projection40 [33-45]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024 45 40 35 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada ©2023 5.8 seat/% 40 [33-45] 34% ± 5% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ BQ 40 [33-45] April 21, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 40/78 ON 0/122 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/37 BC 0/43 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024

23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 29.3% ▼ 2021 32.1% 34.0% ± 4.7% ▼ Max. 38.7% ▼ Probabilities % BQ

Seat projection | April 21, 2024

25 30 35 40 45 50 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2021 32 seats Min. 33 ▼ 40 ▼ Max. 45 ▼ Probabilities % BQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe hold >99%
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe hold >99%
3. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe hold >99%
4. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe hold >99%
5. Montcalm BQ safe hold >99%
6. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe hold >99%
7. Repentigny BQ safe hold >99%
8. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe hold >99%
9. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold >99%
10. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe hold >99%
11. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe hold >99%
12. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe hold >99%
13. Mirabel BQ safe hold >99%
14. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe hold >99%
15. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe hold >99%
16. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe hold >99%
17. Saint-Jean BQ safe hold >99%
18. Terrebonne BQ safe hold >99%
19. Shefford BQ safe hold >99%
20. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe hold >99%
21. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe hold >99%
22. Drummond BQ safe hold >99%
23. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe hold >99%
24. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe hold >99%
25. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe hold >99%
26. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ safe hold >99%
27. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe hold >99%
28. Jonquière BQ likely hold 98%
29. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely hold 98%
30. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely gain 97%
31. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely hold 95%
32. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain 89%
33. Compton—Stanstead BQ leaning gain 89%
34. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning hold 83%
35. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain 78%
36. Sherbrooke BQ leaning gain 77%
37. Québec Centre BQ leaning gain 74%
38. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ 66%
39. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 65%
40. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ 51%
41. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ 34%
42. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning hold 28%
43. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold 25%
44. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 12%
45. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely hold 6%
46. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC likely hold 3%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe hold
2. Joliette—Manawan BQ safe hold
3. Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe hold
4. Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe hold
5. Montcalm BQ safe hold
6. Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe hold
7. Repentigny BQ safe hold
8. Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe hold
9. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold
10. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe hold
11. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe hold
12. Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe hold
13. Mirabel BQ safe hold
14. La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe hold
15. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe hold
16. Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe hold
17. Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
18. Terrebonne BQ safe hold
19. Shefford BQ safe hold
20. Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe hold
21. Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe hold
22. Drummond BQ safe hold
23. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe hold
24. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
25. Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe hold
26. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ safe hold
27. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe hold
28. Jonquière BQ likely hold
29. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely hold
30. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely gain
31. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely hold
32. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain
33. Compton—Stanstead BQ leaning gain
34. Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning hold
35. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain
36. Sherbrooke BQ leaning gain
37. Québec Centre BQ leaning gain
38. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
39. Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
40. Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
41. Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
42. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning hold
43. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold
44. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
45. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely hold
46. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC likely hold