338Canada.com - Liberal Party of Canada






338Canada Projection for the Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: July 14th 2019



Regional Popular Vote Projection







Regional Seat Projection







National Seat Projection






Ordered list of districts

(Percentages indicate the odds of winning the districts according to the 338Canada Projection of July 14th 2019.)

#1 24069 Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel Safe LPC>99%
#2 24029 Honoré-Mercier Safe LPC>99%
#3 24024 Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle Safe LPC>99%
#4 24036 Lac-Saint-Louis Safe LPC>99%
#5 24055 Papineau Safe LPC>99%
#6 24053 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount Safe LPC>99%
#7 24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville Safe LPC>99%
#8 24027 Gatineau Safe LPC>99%
#9 24030 Hull–Aylmer Safe LPC>99%
#10 24056 Pierrefonds–Dollard Safe LPC>99%
#11 24015 Bourassa Safe LPC>99%
#12 24057 Pontiac Safe LPC>99%
#13 35098 Scarborough Southwest Safe LPC>99%
#14 24068 Saint-Laurent Safe LPC>99%
#15 24037 LaSalle–Émard–Verdun Safe LPC>99%
#16 24017 Brossard–Saint-Lambert Safe LPC>99%
#17 59034 Vancouver Centre Safe LPC>99%
#18 24016 Brome–Missisquoi Safe LPC>99%
#19 35121 Humber River–Black Creek Safe LPC>99%
#20 12010 Sydney–Victoria Safe LPC>99%
#21 24004 Alfred-Pellan Safe LPC>99%
#22 35044 Kingston and the Islands Safe LPC>99%
#23 24077 Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs Safe LPC>99%
#24 35029 Etobicoke North Safe LPC>99%
#25 59033 Surrey–Newton Safe LPC>99%
#26 24078 Vimy Safe LPC>99%
#27 35077 Ottawa South Safe LPC>99%
#28 24005 Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Safe LPC>99%
#29 24074 Vaudreuil–Soulanges Safe LPC>99%
#30 35108 Toronto Centre Safe LPC>99%
#31 35009 Brampton East Safe LPC>99%
#32 35110 University–Rosedale Safe LPC>99%
#33 10007 St. John's South–Mount Pearl Safe LPC>99%
#34 35062 Mississauga–Malton Safe LPC>99%
#35 35101 Spadina–Fort York Safe LPC>99%
#36 46012 Winnipeg North Safe LPC>99%
#37 24026 Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe LPC>99%
#38 35095 Scarborough–Guildwood Safe LPC>99%
#39 13002 Beauséjour Safe LPC>99%
#40 35090 Toronto–St. Paul's Safe LPC>99%
#41 24052 Mount Royal Safe LPC>99%
#42 35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park Safe LPC>99%
#43 24021 Châteauguay–Lacolle Likely LPC>99%
#44 35078 Ottawa–Vanier Likely LPC>99%
#45 24065 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Likely LPC>99%
#46 12001 Cape Breton–Canso Likely LPC>99%
#47 35007 Beaches–East York Likely LPC>99%
#48 12004 Dartmouth–Cole Harbour Likely LPC>99%
#49 46011 Winnipeg Centre Likely LPC>99%
#50 24072 Shefford Likely LPC>99%
#51 24023 Compton–Stanstead Likely LPC>99%
#52 35019 Don Valley East Likely LPC>99%
#53 59039 Vancouver Quadra Likely LPC>99%
#54 35096 Scarborough North Likely LPC>99%
#55 35079 Ottawa West–Nepean Likely LPC99%
#56 59042 West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Likely LPC99%
#57 24040 Laval–Les Îles Likely LPC99%
#58 24002 Abitibi–Témiscamingue Likely LPC99%
#59 35120 York South–Weston Likely LPC99%
#60 59021 North Vancouver Likely LPC99%
#61 35058 Mississauga Centre Likely LPC98%
#62 35076 Orléans Likely LPC98%
#63 59032 Surrey Centre Likely LPC98%
#64 35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming Likely LPC98%
#65 24034 La Prairie Likely LPC98%
#66 24070 Saint-Maurice–Champlain Likely LPC98%
#67 24001 Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Likely LPC98%
#68 13001 Acadie–Bathurst Likely LPC98%
#69 35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore Likely LPC98%
#70 12007 Kings–Hants Likely LPC98%
#71 12006 Halifax West Likely LPC98%
#72 24054 Outremont Likely LPC97%
#73 24006 Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia Likely LPC97%
#74 24073 Sherbrooke Likely LPC97%
#75 10001 Avalon Likely LPC97%
#76 35103 Sudbury Likely LPC96%
#77 35052 London North Centre Likely LPC96%
#78 24067 Saint-Jean Likely LPC95%
#79 10002 Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Likely LPC95%
#80 35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville Likely LPC95%
#81 35075 Ottawa Centre Likely LPC95%
#82 35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North Likely LPC95%
#83 35001 Ajax Likely LPC95%
#84 35045 Kitchener Centre Likely LPC94%
#85 13005 Madawaska–Restigouche Likely LPC94%
#86 24062 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Likely LPC94%
#87 35032 Guelph Likely LPC93%
#88 10005 Long Range Mountains Likely LPC92%
#89 35112 Waterloo Likely LPC92%
#90 35010 Brampton North Likely LPC91%
#91 35012 Brampton West Likely LPC91%
#92 35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Likely LPC91%
#93 35055 Markham–Thornhill Likely LPC90%
#94 35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Likely LPC90%
#95 35008 Brampton Centre Likely LPC89%
#96 35115 Willowdale Likely LPC88%
#97 24041 Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Likely LPC88%
#98 35027 Etobicoke Centre Likely LPC88%
#99 35094 Scarborough Centre Likely LPC88%
#100 24013 Thérèse-De Blainville Likely LPC88%
#101 35006 Bay of Quinte Likely LPC88%
#102 35021 Don Valley West Likely LPC87%
#103 35011 Brampton South Likely LPC87%
#104 10006 St. John's East Likely LPC86%
#105 12011 West Nova Likely LPC86%
#106 24018 Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely LPC86%
#107 59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells Likely LPC86%
#108 35081 Parkdale–High Park Likely LPC85%
#109 35085 Pickering–Uxbridge Likely LPC85%
#110 12005 Halifax Likely LPC85%
#111 35054 Markham–Stouffville Likely LPC85%
#112 35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River Likely LPC84%
#113 35072 Oakville Likely LPC84%
#114 24049 Montarville Likely LPC84%
#115 35092 Sault Ste. Marie Likely LPC84%
#116 35064 Nepean Likely LPC83%
#117 10004 Labrador Likely LPC83%
#118 13007 Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe Leaning LPC80%
#119 46014 Winnipeg South Centre Leaning LPC79%
#120 35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills Leaning LPC78%
#121 46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital Leaning LPC78%
#122 11001 Cardigan Leaning LPC77%
#123 59011 Delta Leaning LPC76%
#124 11002 Charlottetown Leaning LPC75%
#125 62001 Nunavut Leaning LPC75%
#126 35020 Don Valley North Leaning LPC74%
#127 59040 Vancouver South Leaning LPC73%
#128 24043 Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Leaning LPC71%
#129 12008 Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Leaning LPC71%
#130 61001 Northwest Territories Leaning LPC70%
#131 35053 London West Leaning LPC66%
#132 35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore Leaning LPC66%
#133 11004 Malpeque Leaning LPC65%
#134 47009 Regina–Wascana Leaning LPC64%
#135 35018 Davenport Leaning LPC62%
#136 60001 Yukon Leaning LPC62%
#137 10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Leaning LPC61%
#138 35109 Toronto–Danforth Leaning LPC60%
#139 35041 Kanata–Carleton Toss up56%
#140 24071 Salaberry–Suroît Toss up56%
#141 35084 Peterborough–Kawartha Toss up52%
#142 12009 South Shore–St. Margarets Toss up52%
#143 35063 Mississauga–Streetsville Toss up49%
#144 35024 Eglinton–Lawrence Toss up49%
#145 24038 Laurentides–Labelle Toss up48%
#146 12002 Central Nova Toss up48%
#147 35073 Oakville North–Burlington Toss up46%
#148 35093 Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up46%
#149 35015 Burlington Toss up46%
#150 35087 Richmond Hill Toss up46%
#151 13003 Fredericton Toss up46%
#152 35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge Toss up45%
#153 59007 Cloverdale–Langley City Toss up45%
#154 35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Toss up44%
#155 35043 King–Vaughan Toss up43%
#156 35114 Whitby Toss up43%
#157 59036 Vancouver Granville Toss up42%
#158 46013 Winnipeg South Toss up42%
#159 35065 Newmarket–Aurora Toss up41%
#160 35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler Toss up41%
#161 59002 Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up41%
#162 24028 Hochelaga Toss up40%
#163 35089 St. Catharines Leaning CPC40%
#164 24059 Québec Toss up39%
#165 35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Leaning CPC38%
#166 12003 Cumberland–Colchester Leaning CPC37%
#167 24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot Toss up36%
#168 24011 Beloeil–Chambly Leaning BQ35%
#169 35016 Cambridge Leaning CPC34%
#170 24044 Louis-Hébert Leaning CPC33%
#171 35069 Nickel Belt Leaning NDP33%
#172 35118 York Centre Leaning CPC33%
#173 24076 Trois-Rivières Leaning CPC32%
#174 24012 Berthier–Maskinongé Toss up30%
#175 35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Leaning CPC30%
#176 24039 Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up26%
#177 35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South Leaning CPC26%
#178 35066 Niagara Centre Toss up26%
#179 59031 Steveston–Richmond East Leaning CPC25%
#180 24032 Jonquière Toss up22%
#181 59014 Kelowna–Lake Country Leaning CPC22%
#182 11003 Egmont Leaning CPC22%
#183 35042 Kenora Leaning NDP20%
#184 24025 Drummond Leaning CPC20%
#185 35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington Likely CPC17%
#186 59008 Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam Likely CPC15%
#187 35046 Kitchener–Conestoga Likely CPC13%
#188 35035 Hamilton Centre Likely NDP13%
#189 35057 Milton Likely CPC12%
#190 59030 South Surrey–White Rock Likely CPC12%
#191 59022 Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge Likely CPC12%
#192 59017 Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon Likely CPC11%
#193 35056 Markham–Unionville Likely CPC11%
#194 35037 Hamilton Mountain Likely NDP8%
#195 46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley Likely CPC7%
#196 24031 Joliette Likely BQ7%
#197 46003 Churchill–Keewatinook Aski Likely NDP7%
#198 24075 Terrebonne Likely BQ6%
#199 24048 Mirabel Likely BQ6%
#200 35100 Simcoe North Likely CPC6%
#201 35082 Parry Sound–Muskoka Likely CPC5%
#202 35030 Flamborough–Glanbrook Likely CPC5%
#203 35119 York–Simcoe Likely CPC5%