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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: April 14, 2024

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection25.5% ± 3.0%
Current number of MP's158
Current seat projection72 [51-97]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 8.6 seat/% 72 [51-97] 25% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 72 [51-97] April 14, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 1/4 NS 3/11 NB 4/10 QC 26/78 ON 28/121 MB 4/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/34 BC 4/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 22.5% ▼ 25.5% ± 3.0% ▼ Max. 28.5% ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | April 14, 2024

23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 103 113 123 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Min. 51 ▼ 72 ▼ Max. 97 ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold >99%
2. Scarborough North LPC safe hold >99%
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold >99%
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold >99%
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold >99%
6. Bourassa LPC safe hold >99%
7. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold >99%
8. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold >99%
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold >99%
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold >99%
11. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold >99%
12. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold >99%
13. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold >99%
14. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold >99%
15. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold >99%
16. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold >99%
17. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold >99%
18. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold >99%
19. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold >99%
20. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold >99%
21. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold >99%
22. Vimy LPC safe hold >99%
23. Mount Royal LPC safe hold >99%
24. York South–Weston LPC safe hold >99%
25. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold >99%
26. Gatineau LPC safe hold >99%
27. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold >99%
28. Papineau LPC safe hold >99%
29. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe hold >99%
30. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold >99%
31. Don Valley East LPC safe hold >99%
32. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold >99%
33. Beauséjour LPC likely hold 99%
34. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely hold 99%
35. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 99%
36. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold 98%
37. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold 97%
38. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold 97%
39. Halifax West LPC likely hold 95%
40. Vancouver South LPC likely hold 94%
41. Ajax LPC likely hold 94%
42. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold 93%
43. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold 92%
44. Winnipeg North LPC likely hold 92%
45. Outremont LPC likely hold 92%
46. Pontiac LPC leaning hold 89%
47. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold 88%
48. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold 85%
49. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold 84%
50. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold 83%
51. Ottawa Centre LPC leaning hold 83%
52. Brampton East LPC leaning hold 83%
53. Brampton West LPC leaning hold 81%
54. Winnipeg South LPC leaning hold 80%
55. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning hold 79%
56. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold 78%
57. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC leaning hold 76%
58. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold 76%
59. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold 75%
60. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning hold 71%
61. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC leaning hold 70%
62. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold 70%
63. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP 68%
64. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
65. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
66. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
67. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
68. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP 55%
69. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 52%
70. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
71. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 51%
72. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 50%
73. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP 46%
74. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ 46%
75. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP 41%
76. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ 40%
77. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
78. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 38%
79. Milton Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
80. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC 35%
81. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ 34%
82. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
83. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 31%
84. Egmont CPC leaning gain 29%
85. North Vancouver CPC leaning gain 28%
86. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain 28%
87. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC 27%
88. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC 27%
89. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain 27%
90. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 26%
91. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 24%
92. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain 23%
93. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain 21%
94. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain 21%
95. Labrador CPC leaning gain 19%
96. Guelph CPC leaning gain 17%
97. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain 16%
98. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain 15%
99. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain 15%
100. Compton–Stanstead BQ leaning gain 15%
101. Willowdale CPC leaning gain 14%
102. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain 13%
103. Don Valley West CPC leaning gain 12%
104. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain 12%
105. Central Nova CPC leaning gain 12%
106. Avalon CPC leaning gain 12%
107. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain 11%
108. Markham–Stouffville CPC leaning gain 11%
109. Waterloo CPC leaning gain 11%
110. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC leaning gain 11%
111. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain 10%
112. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 9%
113. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain 8%
114. Delta CPC likely gain 8%
115. Malpeque CPC likely gain 8%
116. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain 7%
117. Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ likely gain 7%
118. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain 6%
119. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain 5%
120. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain 5%
121. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain 5%
122. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain 4%
123. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain 4%
124. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain 4%
125. Nepean CPC likely gain 4%
126. London North Centre CPC likely gain 4%
127. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain 3%
128. York Centre CPC likely gain 2%
129. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain 2%
130. Whitby CPC likely gain 2%
131. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain 1%
132. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain 1%
133. Burlington CPC likely gain 1%
134. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain 1%
135. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain 1%
136. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
2. Scarborough North LPC safe hold
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
6. Bourassa LPC safe hold
7. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
8. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
9. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
10. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold
11. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold
12. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
13. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
14. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold
15. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
16. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
17. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
18. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold
19. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold
20. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold
21. Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold
22. Vimy LPC safe hold
23. Mount Royal LPC safe hold
24. York South–Weston LPC safe hold
25. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold
26. Gatineau LPC safe hold
27. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
28. Papineau LPC safe hold
29. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC safe hold
30. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC safe hold
31. Don Valley East LPC safe hold
32. Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold
33. Beauséjour LPC likely hold
34. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely hold
35. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
36. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
37. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold
38. University–Rosedale LPC likely hold
39. Halifax West LPC likely hold
40. Vancouver South LPC likely hold
41. Ajax LPC likely hold
42. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold
43. Ottawa–Vanier LPC likely hold
44. Winnipeg North LPC likely hold
45. Outremont LPC likely hold
46. Pontiac LPC leaning hold
47. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold
48. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
49. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold
50. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold
51. Ottawa Centre LPC leaning hold
52. Brampton East LPC leaning hold
53. Brampton West LPC leaning hold
54. Winnipeg South LPC leaning hold
55. Laurier–Sainte-Marie LPC leaning hold
56. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold
57. Toronto–St. Paul’s LPC leaning hold
58. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold
59. Hochelaga LPC leaning hold
60. Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning hold
61. Scarborough–Agincourt LPC leaning hold
62. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold
63. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP
64. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
65. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
66. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC
67. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
68. Spadina–Fort York Toss up LPC/NDP
69. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
70. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
71. Toronto–Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
72. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
73. Parkdale–High Park Toss up LPC/NDP
74. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
75. Davenport Toss up LPC/NDP
76. Québec Toss up LPC/BQ
77. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC
78. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
79. Milton Toss up LPC/CPC
80. Orléans Toss up LPC/CPC
81. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ
82. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC
83. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
84. Egmont CPC leaning gain
85. North Vancouver CPC leaning gain
86. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain
87. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC
88. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC
89. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain
90. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
91. Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
92. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain
93. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain
94. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain
95. Labrador CPC leaning gain
96. Guelph CPC leaning gain
97. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain
98. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain
99. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain
100. Compton–Stanstead BQ leaning gain
101. Willowdale CPC leaning gain
102. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain
103. Don Valley West CPC leaning gain
104. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain
105. Central Nova CPC leaning gain
106. Avalon CPC leaning gain
107. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain
108. Markham–Stouffville CPC leaning gain
109. Waterloo CPC leaning gain
110. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC leaning gain
111. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain
112. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
113. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain
114. Delta CPC likely gain
115. Malpeque CPC likely gain
116. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain
117. Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ likely gain
118. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain
119. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain
120. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain
121. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain
122. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain
123. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain
124. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain
125. Nepean CPC likely gain
126. London North Centre CPC likely gain
127. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain
128. York Centre CPC likely gain
129. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain
130. Whitby CPC likely gain
131. Richmond Hill CPC likely gain
132. Edmonton Centre CPC leaning gain
133. Burlington CPC likely gain
134. Oakville North–Burlington CPC likely gain
135. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
136. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain