338Canada.com - Liberal Party of Canada






338Canada Projection for the Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: May 12th 2019



Regional Popular Vote Projection







Regional Seat Projection







National Seat Projection






Ordered list of districts

(Percentages indicate the odds of winning the districts according to the 338Canada Projection of May 12th 2019.)

#1 24069 Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel Safe LPC>99%
#2 24029 Honoré-Mercier Safe LPC>99%
#3 24055 Papineau Safe LPC>99%
#4 24036 Lac-Saint-Louis Safe LPC>99%
#5 24024 Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle Safe LPC>99%
#6 24053 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount Safe LPC>99%
#7 24027 Gatineau Safe LPC>99%
#8 24068 Saint-Laurent Safe LPC>99%
#9 24030 Hull–Aylmer Safe LPC>99%
#10 24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville Safe LPC>99%
#11 24015 Bourassa Safe LPC>99%
#12 24056 Pierrefonds–Dollard Safe LPC>99%
#13 24077 Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs Safe LPC>99%
#14 24037 LaSalle–Émard–Verdun Safe LPC>99%
#15 24057 Pontiac Safe LPC>99%
#16 24017 Brossard–Saint-Lambert Safe LPC>99%
#17 24004 Alfred-Pellan Safe LPC>99%
#18 24016 Brome–Missisquoi Safe LPC>99%
#19 24078 Vimy Safe LPC>99%
#20 24074 Vaudreuil–Soulanges Safe LPC>99%
#21 24005 Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Safe LPC>99%
#22 59034 Vancouver Centre Safe LPC>99%
#23 24065 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Safe LPC>99%
#24 35044 Kingston and the Islands Safe LPC>99%
#25 24072 Shefford Safe LPC>99%
#26 24026 Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe LPC>99%
#27 35121 Humber River–Black Creek Safe LPC>99%
#28 24006 Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia Safe LPC>99%
#29 24021 Châteauguay–Lacolle Safe LPC>99%
#30 35077 Ottawa South Safe LPC>99%
#31 12010 Sydney–Victoria Safe LPC>99%
#32 24023 Compton–Stanstead Safe LPC>99%
#33 24040 Laval–Les Îles Safe LPC>99%
#34 35029 Etobicoke North Safe LPC>99%
#35 35098 Scarborough Southwest Safe LPC>99%
#36 13002 Beauséjour Safe LPC>99%
#37 24070 Saint-Maurice–Champlain Safe LPC>99%
#38 24001 Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou Safe LPC>99%
#39 59033 Surrey–Newton Safe LPC>99%
#40 35009 Brampton East Safe LPC>99%
#41 35095 Scarborough–Guildwood Safe LPC>99%
#42 46012 Winnipeg North Safe LPC>99%
#43 35078 Ottawa–Vanier Safe LPC>99%
#44 10001 Avalon Safe LPC99%
#45 35090 Toronto–St. Paul's Safe LPC99%
#46 35062 Mississauga–Malton Likely LPC99%
#47 35097 Scarborough–Rouge Park Likely LPC99%
#48 24002 Abitibi–Témiscamingue Likely LPC99%
#49 46011 Winnipeg Centre Likely LPC99%
#50 24034 La Prairie Likely LPC99%
#51 24073 Sherbrooke Likely LPC98%
#52 10007 St. John's South–Mount Pearl Likely LPC98%
#53 12004 Dartmouth–Cole Harbour Likely LPC98%
#54 12001 Cape Breton–Canso Likely LPC98%
#55 24067 Saint-Jean Likely LPC97%
#56 35079 Ottawa West–Nepean Likely LPC97%
#57 35108 Toronto Centre Likely LPC96%
#58 59039 Vancouver Quadra Likely LPC96%
#59 10002 Bonavista–Burin–Trinity Likely LPC96%
#60 24052 Mount Royal Likely LPC96%
#61 59042 West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Likely LPC96%
#62 35070 Nipissing–Timiskaming Likely LPC95%
#63 35076 Orléans Likely LPC95%
#64 24062 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Likely LPC95%
#65 59021 North Vancouver Likely LPC95%
#66 35101 Spadina–Fort York Likely LPC95%
#67 35019 Don Valley East Likely LPC95%
#68 35110 University–Rosedale Likely LPC94%
#69 24054 Outremont Likely LPC94%
#70 35096 Scarborough North Likely LPC94%
#71 24013 Thérèse-De Blainville Likely LPC91%
#72 24041 Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Likely LPC90%
#73 59032 Surrey Centre Likely LPC90%
#74 35052 London North Centre Likely LPC89%
#75 35028 Etobicoke–Lakeshore Likely LPC89%
#76 35058 Mississauga Centre Likely LPC87%
#77 35103 Sudbury Likely LPC87%
#78 35045 Kitchener Centre Likely LPC87%
#79 24049 Montarville Likely LPC86%
#80 10006 St. John's East Likely LPC84%
#81 12007 Kings–Hants Likely LPC83%
#82 24018 Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely LPC82%
#83 35094 Scarborough Centre Likely LPC82%
#84 35112 Waterloo Likely LPC82%
#85 13005 Madawaska–Restigouche Likely LPC82%
#86 11002 Charlottetown Likely LPC80%
#87 35031 Glengarry–Prescott–Russell Likely LPC80%
#88 35007 Beaches–East York Leaning LPC79%
#89 24043 Longueuil–Saint-Hubert Leaning LPC79%
#90 35106 Thunder Bay–Superior North Leaning LPC78%
#91 35038 Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas Leaning LPC78%
#92 12006 Halifax West Leaning LPC78%
#93 35006 Bay of Quinte Leaning LPC76%
#94 10005 Long Range Mountains Leaning LPC74%
#95 59036 Vancouver Granville Leaning LPC74%
#96 35059 Mississauga East–Cooksville Leaning LPC74%
#97 35001 Ajax Leaning LPC73%
#98 12005 Halifax Leaning LPC71%
#99 11001 Cardigan Leaning LPC70%
#100 35092 Sault Ste. Marie Leaning LPC69%
#101 35064 Nepean Leaning LPC69%
#102 59012 Fleetwood–Port Kells Leaning LPC68%
#103 35120 York South–Weston Leaning LPC68%
#104 35115 Willowdale Leaning LPC67%
#105 35027 Etobicoke Centre Leaning LPC66%
#106 35021 Don Valley West Leaning LPC66%
#107 35105 Thunder Bay–Rainy River Leaning LPC66%
#108 24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot Leaning LPC65%
#109 35012 Brampton West Leaning LPC64%
#110 35055 Markham–Thornhill Leaning LPC64%
#111 35010 Brampton North Leaning LPC63%
#112 10004 Labrador Leaning LPC62%
#113 61001 Northwest Territories Leaning LPC61%
#114 35008 Brampton Centre Toss up60%
#115 12008 Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up60%
#116 24076 Trois-Rivières Toss up58%
#117 24071 Salaberry–Suroît Toss up58%
#118 35020 Don Valley North Toss up58%
#119 46014 Winnipeg South Centre Toss up56%
#120 59040 Vancouver South Toss up56%
#121 35011 Brampton South Toss up56%
#122 13007 Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe Toss up55%
#123 59011 Delta Toss up54%
#124 12011 West Nova Toss up54%
#125 35032 Guelph Toss up54%
#126 13001 Acadie–Bathurst Toss up51%
#127 35085 Pickering–Uxbridge Toss up51%
#128 24011 Beloeil–Chambly Toss up50%
#129 24059 Québec Toss up50%
#130 35041 Kanata–Carleton Toss up50%
#131 24038 Laurentides–Labelle Toss up48%
#132 35053 London West Toss up47%
#133 11004 Malpeque Toss up46%
#134 46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital Toss up45%
#135 35054 Markham–Stouffville Toss up45%
#136 24044 Louis-Hébert Toss up44%
#137 62001 Nunavut Toss up42%
#138 35060 Mississauga–Erin Mills Toss up42%
#139 24025 Drummond Toss up41%
#140 35084 Peterborough–Kawartha Leaning CPC40%
#141 35093 Scarborough–Agincourt Leaning CPC40%
#142 60001 Yukon Leaning CPC39%
#143 47009 Regina–Wascana Leaning CPC35%
#144 10003 Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame Leaning CPC34%
#145 24028 Hochelaga Toss up33%
#146 24032 Jonquière Toss up33%
#147 35063 Mississauga–Streetsville Leaning CPC28%
#148 59007 Cloverdale–Langley City Leaning CPC26%
#149 35047 Kitchener South–Hespeler Leaning CPC24%
#150 35072 Oakville Leaning CPC24%
#151 35061 Mississauga–Lakeshore Leaning CPC24%
#152 35089 St. Catharines Leaning CPC23%
#153 12002 Central Nova Leaning CPC23%
#154 35024 Eglinton–Lawrence Leaning CPC22%
#155 35036 Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Leaning NDP21%
#156 12003 Cumberland–Colchester Leaning CPC20%
#157 59002 Burnaby North–Seymour Leaning CPC19%
#158 35016 Cambridge Likely CPC19%
#159 35111 Vaughan–Woodbridge Likely CPC17%
#160 35075 Ottawa Centre Likely NDP17%
#161 13003 Fredericton Toss up17%
#162 12009 South Shore–St. Margarets Likely CPC17%
#163 35069 Nickel Belt Likely NDP14%
#164 35087 Richmond Hill Likely CPC14%
#165 46013 Winnipeg South Likely CPC13%
#166 35015 Burlington Likely CPC13%
#167 35071 Northumberland–Peterborough South Likely CPC13%
#168 35073 Oakville North–Burlington Likely CPC13%
#169 35043 King–Vaughan Likely CPC12%
#170 24039 Laurier–Sainte-Marie Leaning NDP12%
#171 35118 York Centre Likely CPC12%
#172 35114 Whitby Likely CPC12%
#173 35065 Newmarket–Aurora Likely CPC11%
#174 59031 Steveston–Richmond East Likely CPC10%
#175 35003 Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Likely CPC10%
#176 24012 Berthier–Maskinongé Toss up9%
#177 35066 Niagara Centre Leaning NDP9%
#178 11003 Egmont Likely CPC8%
#179 59014 Kelowna–Lake Country Likely CPC8%
#180 35039 Hastings–Lennox and Addington Likely CPC7%
#181 35018 Davenport Likely NDP7%
#182 35042 Kenora Likely NDP7%
#183 35005 Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte Likely CPC6%
#184 35109 Toronto–Danforth Likely NDP6%
#185 24031 Joliette Likely BQ6%
#186 35046 Kitchener–Conestoga Likely CPC6%
#187 35081 Parkdale–High Park Likely NDP6%
#188 24051 Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup Likely CPC5%