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Canada

New Democratic Party



Latest update: March 17, 2024

LeaderJagmeet Singh
National popular vote in 202117.8%
Current vote projection18.9% ± 3.0%
Current number of MP's25
Current seat projection25 [15-38]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada ©2023 3.9 seat/% 25 [15-38] 19% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × NDP 25 [15-38] March 17, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 1/11 NB 0/10 QC 2/78 ON 9/121 MB 3/14 SK 0/14 AB 2/34 BC 6/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024

12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 15.9% 2021 17.8% 18.9% ± 3.0% Max. 21.9% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | March 17, 2024

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 15 2021 25 seats 25 Max. 38 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Winnipeg Centre NDP safe hold >99%
2. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold >99%
3. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold >99%
4. Vancouver East NDP safe hold >99%
5. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold >99%
6. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP safe hold >99%
7. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold >99%
8. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold >99%
9. Victoria NDP safe hold >99%
10. Windsor West NDP safe hold >99%
11. Nunavut NDP safe hold >99%
12. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold >99%
13. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold >99%
14. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold 94%
15. Davenport NDP leaning gain 88%
16. Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning gain 85%
17. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold 83%
18. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold 81%
19. Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain 77%
20. Spadina–Fort York NDP leaning gain 72%
21. Northwest Territories NDP leaning gain 71%
22. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 65%
23. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP 64%
24. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 56%
25. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP 54%
26. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 50%
27. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP 48%
28. Outremont Toss up LPC/NDP 42%
29. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 37%
30. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP 36%
31. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold 29%
32. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain 28%
33. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 23%
34. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 21%
35. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain 19%
36. Winnipeg North LPC leaning hold 13%
37. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain 13%
38. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain 13%
39. University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold 11%
40. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain 11%
41. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 10%
42. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC 7%
43. Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold 7%
44. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain 5%
45. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain 4%
46. Edmonton Centre CPC likely gain 4%
47. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC likely hold 4%
48. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold 4%
49. Papineau LPC likely hold 4%
50. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold 4%
51. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold 3%
52. London North Centre CPC likely gain 3%
53. Sudbury CPC likely gain 3%
54. Labrador CPC leaning gain 3%
55. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain 3%
56. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain 2%
57. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold 2%
58. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold 2%
59. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain 2%
60. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold 2%
61. Guelph CPC leaning gain 1%
62. Halifax West LPC likely hold 1%
63. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Winnipeg Centre NDP safe hold
2. Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold
3. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold
4. Vancouver East NDP safe hold
5. Hamilton Centre NDP safe hold
6. Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP safe hold
7. Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe hold
8. Vancouver Kingsway NDP safe hold
9. Victoria NDP safe hold
10. Windsor West NDP safe hold
11. Nunavut NDP safe hold
12. New Westminster–Burnaby NDP safe hold
13. London–Fanshawe NDP safe hold
14. Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP likely hold
15. Davenport NDP leaning gain
16. Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning gain
17. Burnaby South NDP leaning hold
18. Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing NDP leaning hold
19. Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain
20. Spadina–Fort York NDP leaning gain
21. Northwest Territories NDP leaning gain
22. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
23. Edmonton Griesbach Toss up CPC/NDP
24. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
25. Timmins–James Bay Toss up CPC/NDP
26. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
27. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP
28. Outremont Toss up LPC/NDP
29. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
30. Cowichan–Malahat–Langford Toss up CPC/NDP
31. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold
32. Hamilton Mountain CPC leaning gain
33. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
34. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
35. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain
36. Winnipeg North LPC leaning hold
37. Windsor–Tecumseh CPC leaning gain
38. Courtenay–Alberni CPC leaning gain
39. University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold
40. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain
41. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
42. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC
43. Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold
44. Nickel Belt CPC likely gain
45. North Island–Powell River CPC likely gain
46. Edmonton Centre CPC likely gain
47. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC likely hold
48. Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
49. Papineau LPC likely hold
50. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold
51. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold
52. London North Centre CPC likely gain
53. Sudbury CPC likely gain
54. Labrador CPC leaning gain
55. Thunder Bay–Rainy River CPC likely gain
56. Hamilton East–Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
57. Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
58. Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
59. Port Moody–Coquitlam CPC likely gain
60. Edmonton Manning CPC likely hold
61. Guelph CPC leaning gain
62. Halifax West LPC likely hold
63. Skeena–Bulkley Valley CPC likely gain